Firings Aside, Plenty of Job Security in the Big Ten

Well, we’re coming off a rough day in the Big Ten, as Illinois’ Bruce Weber and Nebraska’s Doc Sadler were put on the chopping block after disappointing seasons.

I can understand why Weber was fired. After nine seasons, the Fighting Illini seemed to have backward momentum, and were underachieving to an extreme degree. How a team with a NBA-caliber point guard in Brandon Paul, an elite big man in Meyers Leonard and a useful glue guy in Joseph Bertrand could lose that many games is a mystery to me. This might be the most disappointing team in the Big Ten, and their hasty Big Ten Tournament exit against Iowa certainly didn’t help matters. That being said, this is an unfortunate firing in the sense that Weber had grown really close to top recruit Jabari Parker. His firing could jeopardize Illinois’ chances at landing him. Indeed, his family said as much, which is a shame considering that Parker is the No. 1 ranked small forward in the class of 2013, and is easily the most talented of five Chicago natives that Weber was targeting. As crazy as it sounds, I have to wonder if Weber could be bound for Evanston. While I believe Carmody should remain Northwestern’s coach, if he is fired, Weber could be an intriguing fit. He has shown a knack for recruiting in the city of Chicago, and you can just imagine the fuss is Weber somehow brought Parker to Evanston. I literally would think I was in Heaven already.

Meanwhile, I really don’t understand Doc Sadler’s firing. Listen, there’s no doubt Nebraska struggled this year, but don’t forget that this was the Cornhuskers’ first year in the Big Ten, and the jump from the Big XII to the Big Ten is not an easy one to make, whether it’s the jump in skill level or simply game-planning for 11 new conference foes. And then you take into consideration that Nebraska puts such minimal money into its basketball program, the lowest such figure in the Big Ten as one fan pointed out in a full-page newspaper advertisement, and it’s no wonder this team struggled. I mean this team’s only real star was Bo Spencer, and I hesitate to call him even that. Sadler should have been given another chance.

As for the hot stove rankings, with 10 coaches left, I give you my spin on who’s safe and who’s in hot water:

Untouchables

Bo Ryan, Wisconsin – Unbelievable, Jon Leuer departs for the NBA, and the Badgers come back as good as ever. Their defense remains one of the best in the Big Ten, and with Sam Dekker coming in, fans in Madison have plenty to be excited about.

Tom Izzo, Michigan State – Obviously, the Big Ten Coach of the Year doesn’t have much to worry about in terms of job security, but the job he did this season deserves further praise. This Spartans team lacks stars with the exception of Draymond Green, but Izzo once again fit all of the pieces together into something beautiful.

Thad Matta, Ohio State – Is it a little disappointing that the Buckeyes have had so little success in the NCAA Tournament? Yes, but that doesn’t take away from Matta’s immense skills as a recruiter. It will be very fun watching a talented Class of 2011, featuring four four-star recruits, contribute on the court.

Hero Mode

Matt Painter, Purdue – One of the most underrated coaches in the Big Ten, Painter eked every bit of possible effort out of this Boilermakers team, coaxing a limited team (Hummel and who else?) to a late-season run. Yes, despite the losses of E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, Purdue is still destined for the NCAA Tournament. And now he has the 16th-ranked freshman class coming in, a shockingly good haul considering West Lafayette’s limits as a basketball town.

Fran McCaffery, Iowa – His Hawkeyes team was feisty in 2011, finishing close to .500 in Big Ten play, and pulling off a nice victory over the Fighting Illini in the Big Ten Tournament. His team seemed to overachieve, riding several role players to surprising victories. The Hawkeyes’ 24th-ranked incoming freshman class doesn’t hurt either. He definitely has this program heading in the right direction.

Tom Crean, Indiana – He brought in Cody Zeller and he has Yogi Ferrell coming in next year. He has a recruiting lock on the state of Indiana, and is reaping heavy rewards from the rich soil of the Hoosier State. He has made Hoosiers basketball relevant again, and their NCAA Tournament berth alone should keep fans in Bloomington happy for a while.

John Bellein, Michigan – The Wolverines tend to do well in the fundamental aspects of the game under Bellein, and have become a perennial top contender in the Big Ten. Add in the freshman of the year, and the 11th-ranked incoming recruiting class, and you get the feeling that Bellein will be in Ann Arbor for a long time to come.

Dicey Mode

Tubby Smith, Minnesota – The Golden Gophers put forth a really chippy effort in the Big Ten Tournament, and it’s unlikely Tubby Smith will get fired after a season that was compromised by Trevor Mbakwe’s season-ending injury. Still, Minnesota hasn’t gone anywhere in a while, and there’s no doubt things haven’t turned out as planned in Minneapolis.

Bill Carmody, Northwestern – A strong run in the NIT would help make his case for steady progress within the program, but even without a few NIT wins, he should be fine for a little while longer. Athletic director Jim Phillips tends to be quite patient with coaches, and from a historical perspective, Carmody is doing things that have never been done in Evanston. Now, if only he could recruit post players.

Too Early to Judge

Patrick Chambers, Penn State – He had one year and it didn’t go very well. But he deserves time to try to build his own program. Brandon Austin, the No. 13 small forward in the Class of 2013, is looking like a big recruit, and if he can tap into the Philadelphia metropolitan area, that could be a huge break. That being said, he needs to learn not to chase referees across the court. Murder usually doesn’t look good on a resume.

In Other News

Meanwhile, someone in the Redskins’ front office made a decision that ought to get him or her fired, trading away three first-round picks and one second-round pick for the No. 2 selection in the 2012 NFL Draft, or in other words, the right to select Robert Griffin III. Listen, I know that we were all awed and charmed by Griffin’s press conference at the Combine, and I know that he will sell a lot of tickets at FedEx Field, but is it really worth it?

No doubt Robert Griffin III is good. He’s been tossing touchdowns in the pass-happy Big XII for a long time, and with his mobility, he’s the type of quarterback that doesn’t need a strong offensive line to make him look good, which is a happy coincidence given that most of the teams that own top draft picks lack strong offensive lines. It’s how they got there in the first place. So, Griffin III can step in right away into a bad situation and win some ballgames. But, at the same time, Griffin’s 2011 numbers were a little bit out of nowhere, he did play in an unorthodox offensive system and it sometimes seems like any quarterback can toss 30 touchdown passes in the aerial launching ground that is the Big XII. Could he put those type of numbers up in the Big Ten, or more importantly, in the NFL? I’m not so sure.

Perhaps the thinking is that he has the mobility of a John Elway, who Mike Shanahan did well with in Denver, but still as good as Griffin III is, three first-round picks? When you consider that every first-round pick has the potential to be a franchise-changer, that’s a lot to give away. St. Louis could completely remake its defense with those three picks. This year, the Rams will have the No. 6, No. 33 and No. 39 picks, and then they should have two first-round picks in each of the next two drafts. I’m practically salivating thinking of what St. Louis could do with its three picks in the first two rounds of this year’s draft. The Rams could pick up Matt Kalil or David DeCastro to shore up their offensive line, then pick up Alshon Jeffery to give Sam Bradford someone to throw to and finally pick up Jerel Worthy to stuff the run.

Whether or not that’s the best approach, I have no idea, but the point is they can now address multiple weaknesses through the 2012 NFL Draft. The way I just outlined would help fix the line, receiving corps and run defense in one fell swoop. It’s the greatest new mind game for NFL fans to play in their free time: how the Rams should spend their first three picks, and it’s all courtesy of the Redskins. This isn’t just a vote of confidence in Sam Bradford by St. Louis, it’s also quite simply a very smart move. Meanwhile, I can’t really blame Washington. When you consider how long the Redskins have gone without an elite quarterback, you can see why they made this desperate move.

Northwestern vs. Iowa: The Need to Maintain Momentum

The thought heading into tonight’s game against the Iowa Hawkeyes is alright, an easy win for Northwestern. Well, as Lee Corso is quick to say, not so fast, my friend! This is an Iowa team that is 5-6 in Big Ten play, and was able to beat Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, all schools that Northwestern has been unable to beat thus far this season. This Hawkeyes team is rocky, falling to the Boilermakers and Cornhuskers after their big upset of the Wolverines, but they are threatening. And at a half-game in front of the Wildcats in the Big Ten standings, Iowa is a team that Northwestern must pass in order to make the NCAA Tournament. The two teams are on a six-lane highway right now, or however many conference teams will make the NCAA Tournament this season, and the Wildcats could pass the Hawkeyes tonight.

The good news for Northwestern, currently second-to-last in the Big Ten with its -4.8 rebounding margin, is that Iowa has struggled on the boards as well. And the Wildcats should be encouraged by their ability to out-rebound the Fighting Illini at Assembly Hall on Sunday. Shooting 60 percent definitely helped in that effort, and it’s unclear whether Northwestern will be able to pull that off against an Iowa team that has surrendered just 62.5 points per game in its last two appearances. Memories of that 103-point shellacking the Hawkeyes suffered in Bloomington are beginning to fade away, and while this is the Big Ten’s worst team in terms of scoring defense, it appears that Fran McCaffery’s unit is beginning to round into shape. Overall, I believe that statistics aside, Northwestern should be able to score, since Iowa’s last two opponents, Penn State and Nebraska, lack Northwestern’s attacking prowess, and John Shurna and Drew Crawford present a dynamic duo of the likes Iowa has rarely seen before. Iowa’s statistically strong three-point defense raises an interesting question, as to whether Northwestern will be forced to resort to its backdoor passes. But at this point, I’m probably delving too far into the statistics.

The Hawkeyes also have very few people who scare me. They have plenty of people whom I respect, like Matt Gatens, Bryce Cartwright and Aaron White, but none of these guys deserves to be considered among the Big Ten’s elite. Sure, Gatens is averaging 13.9 points per game and shooting 34 percent from behind the arc, but he tends to confine himself to the perimeter, and I don’t consider him an elite driver by any means. I like Cartwright. I think he’s an athletic kid that can clearly do a lot of things, but neither him nor Melsahn Basabe, whose physicality I admire, are the types of players that can take over a game. Also, Iowa is prone to turn the ball over quite a bit, so this is a chance for Northwestern to use its 1-3-1 to force mistakes. Iowa is among the league leaders in steals so there is the potential for both teams to collect plenty of turnovers, and run up and down the court. I think that type of tempo is to Northwestern’s advantage, so the Wildcats should embrace the speed of the game.

Now, it’s time to update the Wildcats’ postseason tournament hopes chart:

Current Record: 4-6

Necessary Record: 8-10

Need to Go (At Least): 4-4

* Below games are ordered by Northwestern’s chance of winning, ranked on a scale of 0 to 10, with 10 being the most likely.

8 Northwestern vs. Iowa, February 9, 2012 at 8:00 p.m. – The Hawkeyes are not bad as evidenced by their comeback victory over the Golden Gophers, but the Wildcats have usually had success keeping Matt Gatens in check. Besides, I’ve never viewed Gatens as a legitimate star. He’s a good shooter, with some ability to drive to the hoop, but he doesn’t fit into the category of Big Ten elite. The Hawkeyes’ defense is too shaky to be trusted, and assuming the Wildcats don’t turn it over twice a minute like the Golden Gophers did, they should be fine in the friendly confines of Welsh-Ryan Arena.

Opponent Profile: Hawkeyes (13-11, 5-6), tied for seventh in the Big Ten, four games back, two-game winning streak (Minnesota, PSU)

7 Northwestern at Penn State, February 25, 2012 at 8:00 p.m. — This is a mediocre Penn State squad, but that hasn’t stopped the Wildcats from falling to the Nittany Lions in the past. Guard Tim Frazier is an absolute beast, averaging 18.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game this season, and while Northwestern has actually kept him in check in the past, he still scares me. Plus, the Wildcats have never had much success in Unhappy Valley, losing every game they’ve played there since February 16, 2002. The Nittany Lions’ +4.1 rebounding margin also scares me, given the Wildcats’ difficulties controlling the boards in the past.

Opponent Profile: Nittany Lions (10-15, 2-10), last in the Big Ten, 7.5 games back, five-game losing streak, last two by 33 points combined

7 Northwestern at Iowa, March 3, 2012 at 1:30 p.m. — Short of Gatens, Melsahn Basabe is a top athlete, but he has yet to put up much production during Big Ten play. While the Hawkeyes have a bunch of talented athletes down low, overachievers in my opinion, none of them are awe-inspiring, and I expect the Wildcats to be able to have some success down low.

Opponent Profile: Hawkeyes (13-11, 5-6), tied for seventh in the Big Ten, four games back, two-game winning streak (Minnesota, PSU)

6 Northwestern at Purdue, February 12, 2012 at 6:00 p.m. — Not to sound like a sore loser, but I wasn’t impressed by the Boilermakers at all when they beat the Wildcats 58-56 at Welsh-Ryan Arena. This is a Purdue team that lacks an elite scorer, since I still refuse to recognize Robbie Hummel as a legitimate star within the Big Ten, and for that matter, this is a Boilermakers team that straight up cannot shoot the rock. They missed more open shots against Northwestern than I care to mention, and the funny thing is, despite how badly the Wildcats played all game, they still only lost by two. I expect Northwestern to come out and win at Purdue, even though Mackey Arena is an undeniably tough gym to play in.

Opponent Profile: Boilermakers (15-9, 5-6), tied for seventh in the Big Ten, four games back, two-game losing streak (Indiana, @OSU), gave the Buckeyes a surprisingly tough fight in Columbus

6 Northwestern vs. Michigan, February 21, 2012 at 7:00 p.m. — The Wolverines may be ranked, but the Wildcats gave them the fight of a lifetime in Ann Arbor not so long ago. In fact, Northwestern easily could have won that game, as Michigan attempted to hand that game over on a silver platter on numerous occasions. The Wildcats simply failed to take advantage, bungling buzzer-beating opportunities and missing critical free throws to spoil a fine shooting day from the field. Undoubtedly, Northwestern has a better offense than Michigan, which isn’t a claim you can make very often about the Wildcats these days, but the question is can they take care of business on the boards against an excellent rebounding team? The Wolverines fired an astounding 18 extra shots when these teams last played, and the Wildcats will have to work to make their shot counts far more even. If the shot counts are even, I’d put money on Northwestern draining more.

Opponent Profile: Wolverines (18-7, 8-4), No. 22 AP, third in the Big Ten, 1.5 games back, haven’t won consecutive games since January 11

6 Northwestern vs. Minnesota, February 18, 2012 at 6:00 p.m. — I cover Golden Gophers basketball for Big Ten or Bust, so I have plenty of experience watching them play, and all I can say is they are a tough, gritty team that can turn any game into a physical, low-scoring contest. Their defense is mean, which could present a challenge for a Wildcats’ attack that struggles against elite defenses, but at the same time, Minnesota doesn’t play all that well away from home and turns the ball over way too much. The Golden Gophers have no elite scorers of Drew Crawford or John Shurna’s caliber, although that being said, Rodney Williams presents numerous matchup problems as an athletic forward who can rebound, dunk and shoot the three. Ralph Sampson III also is flat-out better than Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. He never really dominates a game, but if Minnesota wins, it will be on the legs of Williams, with consistent chip-ins from Sampson III.

Opponent Profile: Golden Gophers (17-7, 5-6), tied for seventh in the Big Ten, four games back, split last four games, won five of seven

3 Northwestern at Indiana, February 15, 2012 at 5:30 p.m. — Northwestern made history last year, breaking a losing streak at Assembly Hall so long that it made my dad’s bald spot look like a recent development. As impressive as that win was, I’m not sure I see it happening again. The Wildcats will have deep difficulties stopping Cody Zeller in the paint. Zeller is so much bigger, more creative and more agile than Northwestern’s interior players that he will cause serious matchup problems. And don’t forget that the Wildcats still aren’t a very good road team. Still, the one thing in their favor is that the Hoosiers rely heavily on the three, and when the outside shots aren’t falling, Indiana is prone to upsets.

Opponent Profile: Hoosiers (18-6, 6-6), fifth in Big Ten, 3.5 games back, lost five of last eight games, perfect non-conference record faded fast

2 Northwestern vs. Ohio State, February 29, 2012 at 7:30 p.m. — Northwestern actually played Ohio State tight on multiple occasions last season, but it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats handing the Buckeyes a stunning defeat in this episode of their new rivalry. Centers Davide Curletti and Luka Mirkovic have struggled all season against centers far lesser than Ohio State big man Jared Sullinger, so I expect Sullinger to absolutely dominate the paint against Northwestern. The Buckeyes also have an able crew of outside shooters, including stud William Buford (who is averaging 15 points per game) and floor general Aaron Kraft, who is a superior version of Dave Sobolewski. In addition to having the offensive weapons necessary to pummel the Wildcats, the Buckeyes also have a stalwart defense that has held opponents to 55 points or less in five of Ohio State’s last seven games. For an offense that has struggled against elite defenses this season, this could be deadly, and I fully expect the Buckeyes to keep the Wildcats in check in this one.

Opponent Profile: Buckeyes (21-3, 9-2), No. 3 AP, first in Big Ten, won six straight, Purdue and Wisconsin challenged them last time out