Huskies Humiliate Wildcats

Washington Huskies 76 – Northwestern Wildcats 55

I had to think for a long time about what I would say in this blog post. What does a Wildcats fan say after Washington absolutely obliterated Northwestern in the second round of the NIT Tournament.

I guess I’ll start with what my mind is telling me, as opposed to what my heart is telling me. After watching the Huskies show off bigger muscles, better drives and more belligerent defense for 40 minutes on Friday night, it’s tempting to say that the Wildcats need to go into rebuilding mode. Fire Carmody. Abandon the Princeton offense. Stray away from the 1-3-1 pressure zone. All are tempting sentiments.

Instead, I will plead for calm. One night should not define a program. One night should not override years of progress. One night should not override slow, if meandering, footsteps toward a better future.

The holes are glaring at this point, and they are real. This team cannot defend against the three-pointer, which is a classic vulnerability of the 1-3-1 defense. When teams are able to move the ball rapidly around the perimeter, they will find openings, and they will find open shots. This team is entirely incompetent on the glass. They look like a mismatched group of midgets going against a gaggle of giants on each and every rebound. Even when they do pick up a rebound, it’s usually a strenuous procedure, characterized by multiple tips and a tumultous scrum for the ball as opposed to other teams that simply catch the ball off of the rim. They are far too reliant on the three-pointer and they do not drive enough on offense.

And I will say this now, and I will say this throughout this post, their leading scorers go silent far too often. Don’t get me wrong. I love John Shurna. I think he is a tremendous player, particularly as a shooter. But the fact that he had just three shot attempts last night as the wheels fell off in the second half is unacceptable. Shurna eventually starting driving madly toward the basket, but by then it was too late, with the Huskies already holding onto a 20-point lead. Where was Shurna when Washington began its little run? The fact that I’ve noticed throughout this season is that Shurna isn’t very clutch. He turns the ball over in the final minutes, gets locked down on defense and misses free throws. I love him, but I can’t recall the last clutch three he hit. Has there been one since his game-winner over Ohio State his sophomore year? Meanwhile, Drew Crawford took a significant step this season, but he is still inconsistent as can be. Although he averaged 16 points per game this season, he reverted to old habits, disappearing when his team needed him most, to seal a NCAA Tournament bid against Minnesota. He scored just eight points  on 2-of-11 shooting. He made everyone forget those struggles with a dominating performance against Akron but then scored just five points against Washington. Asides from a gorgeous three-pointer taken from way behind the arc, he did nothing, attempting just six shots. How does the star of a team take just six shots in 30 minutes of play? When the team is struggling, Shurna and Crawford ought to have the ball in their hands. Instead, this team reacts very slowly, and it seems like when they’re in the middle of an offenisve funk, they don’t necessarily have anyone ready to step up. These are not knee-jerk reactions on my part, or examples of a sports journalist confusing a 24-hour virus with a chronic disease. These problems did not emerge tonight and they did not emerge last week. These are season-long problems, and they will certainly need to be addressed this summer.

John Shurna is the leading scorer in school history, and he has deeper range than anybody I’ve ever seen. He has the capability to drive awfully well for someone his size, and he’s a very underrated defender, who blocks shots far more often than his zize would suggest. But he cannot do it alone. He cannot do everything for this team and that showed Friday night .He is not Jordan Taylor and he is not Jared Sullinger. He can be an extremely hot player, but I would stop short of saying that he can score at will. Last night, he was barely able to play a role in the offense, let alone score at will, in the second half. The funny thing is people will look at the box score, see that he scored 24 points on 6-of-12 shooting, including a 5-of-7 clip from behind the arc, and assumed that he had another great game, but that’s where stats are deceiving and you have to trust your eyes. Shurna was great early, but he faded after 14 first-half points, attempting just three shots and missing all three during the game-defining run when Washington expanded a seven-point lead into a 20-point advantage.

What I will say is the travesty that occurred in the second half was a long time in coming. It’s not like they played that much worse in the second half than they did in the first half. The difference was Washington started draining the three-pointers that Northwestern had left open all night. While the Huskies made just 5-of-21 from behind the arc in the first half, they made 6-of-11 three-point attempts in the second half. The difference was the Huskies started making their putbacks. They finished with a 16-2 advantage in second-chance opportunities. The difference was Northwestern was no longer able to hold tight as a result of its occasional three-point barrages. The Wildcats went just 22 percent from the field in the second half, including just 4-of-16 from behind the three-point line, including several misses on wide-open shots. That’s how a tight back-and-forth game, that originally swung like a pendelum in the single-digits, turned into a 20-plus point rout. If these two teams played 20 times, I don’t think Washington would win by 20 points every time. This happened to be an exceptionally off night for the Wildcats. But there was no doubt which team was better and more athletic, and that has happened far too often this season. Against Baylor, against Ohio State, against Washington, Northwestern gas shown that it is not on that elite level. Jared Sullinger and Terrence Ross are elite players who can take the ball in their hands Kobe Bryant-style and turn the game around. I’m not convinced John Shurna or Drew Crawford can do that.

The Wildcats were very fortunate to even be in the game at halftime. If Washington had been able to make even fifty percent of its open three-point attempts, then Northwestern’s ship would have been sunk. The Huskies did a terrific job of creating shot opportunities with rapid ball movement. The Wildcats needed to come out hot in the second half, trailing by seven. Instead, the three-pointer suddenly went away from Northwestern, and without the outside shot, the Wildcats were simply hapless. They had chances to drain open three-pointers, but Hearn couldn’t hit, Sobolewski couldn’t hit, and while Northwestern stumbled, Washington soared, literally.

You got the feeling that Northwestern had no business being on that court on Friday. Washington was simply a much better team on Friday night, far more athletic, far more talented and far more capable of executing at a far higher level. It was a sinking feeling in the back of my mind during the first half, and then the ship sunk in the second half. I knew it was over on a series of plays in which Tony Wroten blocked Jershon Cobb as he coasted into the hoop for a fastbreak layup. Wroten came out of nowhere, fully extending his body to swat away Cobb’s attempt. Then, on the other end, Wroten lobbed a pass up for Ross to slam home. Wroten let out a wide grin at that point, a grin as if he suddenly realized that this game was his, that this game, this moment belonged to the Huskies. Amazingly, Wroten, one of Washington’s premiere players, didn’t score in the second half, but he didn’t need to because Ross scored enough for the both of them. Ross went absolutely apeshit after the intermission, draining 9-of-11 for 17 points, and was unstoppable with his long frame fading away for jumpers and three-pointers. To make matters worse, Washington showed off another jewel that Northwestern would love to have, a solid bench player, as C.J. Wilcox drained four clutch three-pointers off of the bench.

Washington absolutely dominated the glass on Friday, by a margin of 45-26, which is, yes, even worse than usual for Northwestern. Twenty offensive rebonds undermined whatever defense the Wildcats could muster, and then they literally fell apart under pressure. The Wildcats never turn the ball over, literally almost never, averaging around six turnovers per game. Well, they turned it over 11 times in the first half on Friday night, and finished with more turnovers than assists, a true rarity for Northwestern basketball. Washington was able to get into Northwestern’s heads, particularly that of Dave Sobolewski, who could barely bring the ball up court at times.

The turnovers came at horrendous times too, ruining multiple runs. For example, Northwestern had clawed back from a nine-point deficit to draw within four points, when Jershon Cobb allowed the ball to glance off of his hands under the basket. The worst may have come a minute or two later when Davide Curletti tried to funnel the ball up court to a wide-open Drew Crawford, only to miss his intended target by several feet. Despite Crawford’s valiant attempt to save it along the sideline, the ball went out of bounds, ruining what looked like a sure opportunity for a fastbreak dunk. The look of exasperation on Crawford’s face told it all. If Curletti cannot pass, then what exactly is he good for? Curletti finished with one point, one rebound and two turnovers in 16 minutes of play, continuing a season in which the Wildcats have received absolutely nothing from their post players.

But worse than the invisibility cloak Curletti wraps around himself on offense is the sheer beating he takes in the post. We all knew Washington would control the glass entering the game, but the extent to which the Huskies dominated the glass made it nearly impossible for the Wildcats to win. The funny thing is that Washington was originally missing its second-chance opportunities, somehow scoring only eight second-chance points in the first half, but then they kept getting third chances and fourth chances. Eventually, the ball has to go in. The funny thing is Washington probably converted on only 40 percent of its putbacks and layups in the first half. The Huskies were eager, but they more than a wee bit sloppy, and the Wildcats failed to take advantage. So, Washington did in the second half.

I will say that I was worried about their guy in the middle, Aziz N’Diaye, ever since I saw highlights of the Huskies’ first-round victory. It’s not that he’s particularly good, but he is physical and he is big with a dangerously long wingspan. And that in itself is enough against Northwestern’s hideously weak interior defense. Sure enough, he streched out for several impressive rebounds, had a few putback layups, and helped create a nightmare in the post for the Wildcats.

It’s frustrating, because as a Northwestern fan, you’re tempted to always think that if only we picked up a couple of more offensive rebounds, if only we didn’t turn it over that one time, if only we got a bucket or two in the paint, this seven-point deficit would be a three-point lead. But that type of thinking is flawed. The Wildcats are far from where they need to be because so many aspects of their game are flawed. The turnovers are rare but the stale offensive possessions are not. They get hot and cold, none colder than when Drew Crawford apparently forgot that there is a 30-second shot clock in men’s college basketball. And tonight, it was clear that Northwestern is more than a bad break away from where it needs to be.

The problem for Northwestern is that as good as Shurna and Crawford are, they aren’t superheroes. Particularly Shurna, who is dynamite from three-point land, but inconsistent from inside the arc. When he drives, it’s a beautiful sight, but I could count on one hand the number of times he drove in the first half. That leaves Crawford, and now Cobb, as the only pure scorers on this team, and when they’re matched up against a team that also has elite scorers, like Washington, the Wildcats can’t just expect their duo to outscore every other duo in the country, particularly when opposing duos were often more highly recruited for a reason. You can’t expect John Shurna to completely out-class a guy like Terrence Ross, but that is what Northwestern needs with its big men completely clueless in the post. To offset their disadvantage down low, they’re forced to either light it up from three-point land or get some sort of astounding performance from Shurna, night in and night out, which is hard to do. The Wildcats were undoubtedly a slicker team in the first half Friday night. They were electric from three-point land in the first half, and while they made tough, contested shots, Washington missed wide-open shots, failing to even draw rim at times. But the problem is Northwestern was so obviously out-classed in every other area of the game, penetrating the post, grabbing rebounds and forcing bad shots on defense, that it never stood a chance.

Northwestern currently has issues at the top and the bottom in my opinion. Curletti is practically useless in the front court. Sobolewski, as talented and smart as he is, is not an elite scorer, and looked shaky in the back court. That’s all right. He’s a freshman and you have to expect that he will not allow himself to get trapped as often as he did against Washington the next time around. So, next year, you look forward to new blood in the post, with Curletti and Luka Mirkovic both gone. You have to figure that pretty much anything will be better than what they have now. Kyle Rowley, of current NCAA Tournament fame and torture, left this program a couple of years ago, and clearly the Curletti and Mirkovic experiment that has prevailed since has been an abysmal failure. Both would make fine backup centers for any team in the nation. Neither is a true starter. And they could really use a center to save dead possessions. Cobb does that to some extent, but at some point, there’s nothing like a guy, who you can just dump it to with five seconds remaining on the shot clock, and tell him, back your guy down, take a hook shot, and we’ll take those 50-50 odds that it falls.

Without these tools, this was a very humbling night. So ends a Northwestern season that included far more hype than necessary. The Wildcats were perennially talked about as a NCAA Tournament contender, as a charmed team of destiny, but this loss puts an end to that conversation. Heck, it’s not even this loss, it’s this entire 8-10 run through conference play, that included just one quality win, featured several tenuous wins over bad teams and ended in a crushing loss to Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. Sure, the Wildcats proved they could compete with just about anybody, but winning is a different story. Looking back on this season, it is quite clear that this was an average Big Ten team. They were frequently dominated by college basketball’s elite (at Ohio State, versus Baylor and at Washington). They fought hard against good teams like Michigan and Illinois. And at times, they beat up on cellar-dwellers like Nebraska, Penn State, Iowa and Minnesota. At other timers, they struggled against the bottom of the barrel, struggling to defeat cellar-dwellers like Iowa and Penn State on the road. It’s safe to say that Bill Carmody has done a lot in his time in Evanston. It is safe to say that Northwestern has climbed out of the Big Ten basement. Where it has climbed to is far less clear.

Firings Aside, Plenty of Job Security in the Big Ten

Well, we’re coming off a rough day in the Big Ten, as Illinois’ Bruce Weber and Nebraska’s Doc Sadler were put on the chopping block after disappointing seasons.

I can understand why Weber was fired. After nine seasons, the Fighting Illini seemed to have backward momentum, and were underachieving to an extreme degree. How a team with a NBA-caliber point guard in Brandon Paul, an elite big man in Meyers Leonard and a useful glue guy in Joseph Bertrand could lose that many games is a mystery to me. This might be the most disappointing team in the Big Ten, and their hasty Big Ten Tournament exit against Iowa certainly didn’t help matters. That being said, this is an unfortunate firing in the sense that Weber had grown really close to top recruit Jabari Parker. His firing could jeopardize Illinois’ chances at landing him. Indeed, his family said as much, which is a shame considering that Parker is the No. 1 ranked small forward in the class of 2013, and is easily the most talented of five Chicago natives that Weber was targeting. As crazy as it sounds, I have to wonder if Weber could be bound for Evanston. While I believe Carmody should remain Northwestern’s coach, if he is fired, Weber could be an intriguing fit. He has shown a knack for recruiting in the city of Chicago, and you can just imagine the fuss is Weber somehow brought Parker to Evanston. I literally would think I was in Heaven already.

Meanwhile, I really don’t understand Doc Sadler’s firing. Listen, there’s no doubt Nebraska struggled this year, but don’t forget that this was the Cornhuskers’ first year in the Big Ten, and the jump from the Big XII to the Big Ten is not an easy one to make, whether it’s the jump in skill level or simply game-planning for 11 new conference foes. And then you take into consideration that Nebraska puts such minimal money into its basketball program, the lowest such figure in the Big Ten as one fan pointed out in a full-page newspaper advertisement, and it’s no wonder this team struggled. I mean this team’s only real star was Bo Spencer, and I hesitate to call him even that. Sadler should have been given another chance.

As for the hot stove rankings, with 10 coaches left, I give you my spin on who’s safe and who’s in hot water:

Untouchables

Bo Ryan, Wisconsin – Unbelievable, Jon Leuer departs for the NBA, and the Badgers come back as good as ever. Their defense remains one of the best in the Big Ten, and with Sam Dekker coming in, fans in Madison have plenty to be excited about.

Tom Izzo, Michigan State – Obviously, the Big Ten Coach of the Year doesn’t have much to worry about in terms of job security, but the job he did this season deserves further praise. This Spartans team lacks stars with the exception of Draymond Green, but Izzo once again fit all of the pieces together into something beautiful.

Thad Matta, Ohio State – Is it a little disappointing that the Buckeyes have had so little success in the NCAA Tournament? Yes, but that doesn’t take away from Matta’s immense skills as a recruiter. It will be very fun watching a talented Class of 2011, featuring four four-star recruits, contribute on the court.

Hero Mode

Matt Painter, Purdue – One of the most underrated coaches in the Big Ten, Painter eked every bit of possible effort out of this Boilermakers team, coaxing a limited team (Hummel and who else?) to a late-season run. Yes, despite the losses of E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, Purdue is still destined for the NCAA Tournament. And now he has the 16th-ranked freshman class coming in, a shockingly good haul considering West Lafayette’s limits as a basketball town.

Fran McCaffery, Iowa – His Hawkeyes team was feisty in 2011, finishing close to .500 in Big Ten play, and pulling off a nice victory over the Fighting Illini in the Big Ten Tournament. His team seemed to overachieve, riding several role players to surprising victories. The Hawkeyes’ 24th-ranked incoming freshman class doesn’t hurt either. He definitely has this program heading in the right direction.

Tom Crean, Indiana – He brought in Cody Zeller and he has Yogi Ferrell coming in next year. He has a recruiting lock on the state of Indiana, and is reaping heavy rewards from the rich soil of the Hoosier State. He has made Hoosiers basketball relevant again, and their NCAA Tournament berth alone should keep fans in Bloomington happy for a while.

John Bellein, Michigan – The Wolverines tend to do well in the fundamental aspects of the game under Bellein, and have become a perennial top contender in the Big Ten. Add in the freshman of the year, and the 11th-ranked incoming recruiting class, and you get the feeling that Bellein will be in Ann Arbor for a long time to come.

Dicey Mode

Tubby Smith, Minnesota – The Golden Gophers put forth a really chippy effort in the Big Ten Tournament, and it’s unlikely Tubby Smith will get fired after a season that was compromised by Trevor Mbakwe’s season-ending injury. Still, Minnesota hasn’t gone anywhere in a while, and there’s no doubt things haven’t turned out as planned in Minneapolis.

Bill Carmody, Northwestern – A strong run in the NIT would help make his case for steady progress within the program, but even without a few NIT wins, he should be fine for a little while longer. Athletic director Jim Phillips tends to be quite patient with coaches, and from a historical perspective, Carmody is doing things that have never been done in Evanston. Now, if only he could recruit post players.

Too Early to Judge

Patrick Chambers, Penn State – He had one year and it didn’t go very well. But he deserves time to try to build his own program. Brandon Austin, the No. 13 small forward in the Class of 2013, is looking like a big recruit, and if he can tap into the Philadelphia metropolitan area, that could be a huge break. That being said, he needs to learn not to chase referees across the court. Murder usually doesn’t look good on a resume.

In Other News

Meanwhile, someone in the Redskins’ front office made a decision that ought to get him or her fired, trading away three first-round picks and one second-round pick for the No. 2 selection in the 2012 NFL Draft, or in other words, the right to select Robert Griffin III. Listen, I know that we were all awed and charmed by Griffin’s press conference at the Combine, and I know that he will sell a lot of tickets at FedEx Field, but is it really worth it?

No doubt Robert Griffin III is good. He’s been tossing touchdowns in the pass-happy Big XII for a long time, and with his mobility, he’s the type of quarterback that doesn’t need a strong offensive line to make him look good, which is a happy coincidence given that most of the teams that own top draft picks lack strong offensive lines. It’s how they got there in the first place. So, Griffin III can step in right away into a bad situation and win some ballgames. But, at the same time, Griffin’s 2011 numbers were a little bit out of nowhere, he did play in an unorthodox offensive system and it sometimes seems like any quarterback can toss 30 touchdown passes in the aerial launching ground that is the Big XII. Could he put those type of numbers up in the Big Ten, or more importantly, in the NFL? I’m not so sure.

Perhaps the thinking is that he has the mobility of a John Elway, who Mike Shanahan did well with in Denver, but still as good as Griffin III is, three first-round picks? When you consider that every first-round pick has the potential to be a franchise-changer, that’s a lot to give away. St. Louis could completely remake its defense with those three picks. This year, the Rams will have the No. 6, No. 33 and No. 39 picks, and then they should have two first-round picks in each of the next two drafts. I’m practically salivating thinking of what St. Louis could do with its three picks in the first two rounds of this year’s draft. The Rams could pick up Matt Kalil or David DeCastro to shore up their offensive line, then pick up Alshon Jeffery to give Sam Bradford someone to throw to and finally pick up Jerel Worthy to stuff the run.

Whether or not that’s the best approach, I have no idea, but the point is they can now address multiple weaknesses through the 2012 NFL Draft. The way I just outlined would help fix the line, receiving corps and run defense in one fell swoop. It’s the greatest new mind game for NFL fans to play in their free time: how the Rams should spend their first three picks, and it’s all courtesy of the Redskins. This isn’t just a vote of confidence in Sam Bradford by St. Louis, it’s also quite simply a very smart move. Meanwhile, I can’t really blame Washington. When you consider how long the Redskins have gone without an elite quarterback, you can see why they made this desperate move.

Devastation in Evanston

I sat there on one of the old wooden benches at Welsh-Ryan Area long after the final buzzer sounded. The scoreboard, per usual, said at all. Ohio State 75, Northwestern 73. Another close game, another frenetic finish and another loss for the Wildcats. Home court advantage is supposed to give a team a solid boost in exactly this kind of game, but I’m not sure you can even count the number of close Northwestern losses at home on one hand: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, and now, Ohio State. Well, I guess one hand will work, but barely. I wish I could say I was the last one out of the stadium, and come across as deeply stoic in the face of defeat, but in this case, many devastated Northwestern fans stuck around. It was an eerie site, once upon a time you could barely convince fans to come into the building. Last night, you couldn’t get them to leave. That’s what a close game does to you, that’s the aftermath of heartbreak. All I saw around me was fellow Wildcats fans refusing to leave those uncomfortable benches, staying to serenade John Shurna with one last chant, sticking around to mull over the loss for one more second.

It’s funny because this was a game that Northwestern had no business winning anyway. Ohio State was in control nearly the entire way through. The Buckyes completely dominated the paint, as well as the glass. When it wasn’t Jared Sullinger scoring at will, it was Deshaun Thomas. Sullinger finished with an astounding 11 offensive rebounds, a number that is unfathomable in its enormity. He ended up notching 22 points and 18 rebounds. Thomas had 19 points and 10 rebounds. Overall, the Wildcats were out-rebounded 42-16. It’s awfully hard to win a game when you are absolutely helpless down low as Northwestern was on Wednesday. It goes beyond the numbers. Heck, Sullinger was scoring at will. He was hitting mid-range jumpers, with no one in his face. He was finishing off alley-oop plays. And then, on that final play, it was quite fitting as Sullinger received a down-court heave, and effortlessly banked the game-winner home.

For Northwestern, it was simply the latest chapter in a severely disappointing season down low. When the season started, we felt like between Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti, the Wildcats had to have one of the better front courts in the Big Ten. Sure, neither had ever been great, but their experience would win out, particularly with Jon Leuer, Trevor Mbakwe and JaJuan Johnson all departing. That has been anything but the case. Ralph Sampson III of Minnesota has been better. As have Meyers Leonard of Illinois, Cody Zeller of Indiana and Ryan Evans of Wisconsin. Really, the only teams Northwestern is capable of contending with in the paint are Penn State, Iowa and Nebraska, which is embarrassing to say the least. Luka Mirkovic has been out for the past month, and his boundless energy is sorely missed, if not his questionable skill. As for Davide Curletti, he has been nearly invisible since his monstrous performance against Michigan State. You always talk about being a triple threat in basketball, with the ability to drive, shoot and pass, or for post players, the ability to post up, shoot and pass, but Curletti isn’t even a double threat. He is quite literally a single threat, which is no threat at all to opposing big men. He rarely posts up and has shown little inclination to take the shot; instead, he usually just stands on the elbow, and doesn’t even act as if he wants the ball, immediately looking to pass it off.

That makes life incredibly easy on a defense, as any defender can predict his next move. It’s little wonder Sullinger had so much energy on offense when he was so untested on the other end. Curletti isn’t all that good a rebounding threat either; indeed, the one minute span of time in which he grabbed a defensive board and scooped up a loose ball came across as practically miraculous. While Curletti may lack the size and talent of some of the conference’s best big men, I think he can be better, but it starts with playing with more aggression, driving to the hoop, and actually presenting yourself as a threat. Northwestern needs more out of him. The one thing that was nice about Mirkovic is he was aggressive if nothing else.

In general, Northwestern makes life fairly easy on a defense. With the exception of the backdoor pass, it’s fairly obvious where the Wildcats are going to pass the ball. Whenever Drew Crawford drives into the lane, and finds a man in his way, he’ll pass it to the closest player on the arc. Same goes for all of the Northwestern players. That combined with their inability to catch the ball limits what the Wildcats can do on offense. There was one particularly embarrassing play on Wednesday when John Shurna received the ball in the paint on an inbounds play, in perfect position to score, but the ball slipped right through his hands. While the Wildcats struggled to hang onto the simple passes, the Buckeyes were flinging the ball all across the court, not without error, they did finish with 16 turnovers, but their rapid ball movement also led to a very high number of points.

Part of the glory of the Buckeyes’ rapid ball movement, and the reason why it works, is that any one of their players are capable of putting the ball in the basket, something that cannot be said for the Wildcats. Four Ohio State players finished in double-digits Wednesday, while Northwestern relied on 45 points from John Shurna and Drew Crawford combined. The rest of the Wildcats combined to score just 28 points. Give Crawford credit. I thought he was fantastic. His three-pointer was as on as it has been all season, as he drained four-of-six from behind the arc. He drove to the hoop beautifully, and finished with some really impressive layups. Other than Shurna and Crawford, who have multiple ways of hurting you, the Wildcats have few pure scorers. Alex Marcotullio can shoot but is capable of little else, Dave Sobloewski can create his own shot but is prone to quiet nights as a freshman and JerShon Cobb has the talent to create his own shot but it’s not there yet. That leaves it up to Crawford and Shurna on far too many occasions.

It’s rare that you’ll hear me complain about officiating on this blog. I think that referees have an unbelievably difficult job. A thankless job, really. No one notices the 90 percent of calls that they get right, and everyone moans and groans on the rare occasion when they miss a call. Heck, everyone moans and groans whether the referees made the right call or not. So, I understand it’s hard on the referees, but I will say that I thought the officiating on Wednesday was atrocious. The way the referees called this game, I’m not sure how one is supposed to defend an elite big man like Jared Sullinger. If you can’t put your hands up, poke check the ball and occasionally give a little push, then how are you supposed to stop anyone in this conference? This is the Big Ten. It’s a physical conference. Let them play. On the other side of the ball, I saw mistakes as well. I still am not sure how Alex Marcotullio ended up with only three personal fouls. He was clawing at ball-handlers the entire game, frequently hacking them 80 feet from the basket. I know it’s frustrating when your team can’t grab a rebound, but when Ohio State has come down with the ball, you can’t just hit the guy. You need to run back and play defense. Marcotullio was far too wild with his hands on Wednesday night. Similarly, I thought the referees missed a foul when Reggie Hearn was nearly pushed out-of-bounds as he was crossing the timeline. Listen, I’m not one of those fans who moans over every call. All of Welsh-Ryan Arena went berserk when Shurna fell to the ground late in the game on a layup attempt. The whole crowd wanted a foul on Sullinger. In my opinion, Shurna was the one who tried to push-off, he gave Sullinger a stiffarm, and besides if Shurna is not fast enough to get around Sullinger, I’m not sure he deserves the bucket anyway. But there’s no doubt the referees let the Buckeyes get away with a lot of physical play Wednesday, and didn’t help the Wildcats out when it came to the already difficult task of stopping Sullinger in the paint.

So let’s talk about the end of Wednesday’s game. I was highly impressed with the fight Northwestern showed in coming back. The Wildcats were down 70-58 with 5:39 to go and somehow came back, mainly with terrific defense, holding the Buckeyes to just five points over the final five and a half minutes. I thought JerShon Cobb was fantastic on the defensive end, particularly on that one play with 17 seconds remaining in which he ripped the ball away from Deshaun Thomas. Already up three, if Thomas is able to hang onto that ball, Ohio State could seal the game with a free throw or two. Instead, Cobb’s steal gave the Wildcats a chance to tie it up, and sure enough, Marcotullio evened the score on a three-pointer that I’m still not sure he should have taken. With more time on the shot clock, and standing so far from the hoop, Marcotullio perplexed me with his shot selection, but it went in, so God bless him. I guess that’s a shooter’s instinct. He can’t resist the chance to tie it right there. Unfortunately, by taking the shot before he had to, Ohio State had time to respond, and with seven seconds, the Buckeyes were easily able to get the ball into Sullinger, who had good position on Cobb. The Wildcats sophomore went for the steal, which turned out to be a fatal choice, because once Sullinger had it, he was able to spin around and hit the layup, practically uncontested. It’s hard to fault Cobb for going for the steal, particularly when it’s dubious that he could have defended Sullinger, even for three seconds, one on one, but I would have liked to have seen him remain behind Sullinger, so at least, he could maybe draw a charge, or get a hand in Sullinger’s face. Instead, by coming up short on the steal, he took himself out of the play.

But you can’t blame Cobb. He was actually a pleasant surprise on Wednesday. Instead, you can blame all the little things the Wildcats did wrong earlier in the game, errors that seemed to be trifles at the time, but appear much more glaring in the wake of a two-point loss. Crawford missed four out of five free-throws at the line. Shurna missed all of his early three-point attempts, allowing Ohio State to grab the early lead. And then there was all the timeouts the Wildcats had to burn early, particularly when they couldn’t inbound the ball with approximately five minutes remaining. Those timeouts really could have come in handy towards the end. With a timeout in store, Carmody could have called for a break immediately after Sullinger made his game-winner, and crafted the Wildcats’ response. Instead, with three seconds remaining, a live clock whirring and no timeouts, Northwestern had to speed down the court, and pray that a desperation heavy by Shurna would go in. It didn’t. And so heartbreak ensued. And so a +9 advantage in turnovers and seven extra points from behind the arc (Ohio State actually scored six more points off of field goals, but Northwestern had the edge when you factor in its extra seven three-pointers) went to waste.

You have to give Bill Carmody and Tavaras Hardy credit for what they have created in Evanston. It took a decade but they have created a real excitement about basketball at Northwestern. The student section has been absolutely packed the last three or four home games, which at any other school would mark nothing new, but at Welsh-Ryan Arena, represents a refreshing change from the half-filled bleachers of yore. Traffic now snakes miles down Central Street before tipoff; in fact, for the second straight game, I had to abandon my car in Wilmette just to get to the game in time. I remember when I first arrived in Evanston, I could show up right at game time, and end up with a front-row seat. Now, there’s barely a spot in the student section for latecomers. Northwestern has begun to create that ultimate small-gym feel, with the fans absolutely packed in on the benches right behind the two baselines, and the resulting noise absolutely reverberating around the building. When Alex Marcotullio hit the game-tying three with seven seconds remaining in regulation, it sounded like a real arena should. It sounded like college basketball. That’s an excitement that Carmody and the boys worked hard to earn, with three consecutive NIT bids and a surge to the bubble finally creating that elusive home atmosphere that athletic director Jim Phillips has been dreaming about for years.

That being said, I have a challenge for Wildcats fans. If you really care about this team, then let’s head down to Iowa City. As the Northwestern players exited the court Wednesday, I implored them to give the same effort at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. If they do, they will win the game. But if we want them to give the same energy in Iowa City, shouldn’t we? Opposing fans have long filled the upper rafters of Welsh-Ryan Arena, and time after time, as the game has slipped away from the Wildcats, we’ve had to endure their chants, their mockery and their celebrations. Meanwhile, Northwestern has the worst fan presence on the road imaginable. I’ll never forget that on my trip to Mackey Arena, literally just a couple-hours drive from Evanston, there was hardly a purple-clad fan in the building. If you believe in this team, and like me, you insist that the dream has yet to die, then come out with me to Carver-Hawkeye Arena and we’ll show this team that we still believe in them.

Cardiac Collapse Costs Cats Dearly

Michigan 67 – Northwestern 55 (OT)

I wish I could cry.

It’s not like the Wildcats’ wilting performance came as a surprise. With approximately 1:30 remaining in regulation in Northwestern’s overtime loss to Michigan, I texted my closest friend from high school, and guaranteed that the Wolverines would win. Let’s face this, Northwestern Nation, this Wildcats program, when it comes to the revenue-earning sports of football and basketball, is among the least clutch programs ever in sports history. If only someone could inject this bunch with the ice-cold blood that runs through the lacrosse program’s veins, as evidence in its one-goal defeats of both North Carolina and Maryland to win its sixth national title in seven years. Instead, try to think of the last time this basketball program won a game in the closing minutes. Sure, the Wildcats have stunned plenty of teams, but those victories have always come by six or seven points. When was the last time Northwestern hit a buzzer-beater, scored on that crucial final possession, and finished that drive to the hoop? The last time I can recollect is when a much younger, yet still very baby-faced, John Shurna hit a three to defeat Ohio State at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Since then, it has been unmitigated disaster after unmitigated disaster. Whether it’s Meyers Leonard swatting Drew Crawford or a missed Shurna three at the buzzer that rattles off both rims the result is always the same. Northwestern always loses.

It’s not like the Wildcats’ wilting performance came as a surprise.

You’ll have to forgive me for not using more stats in this article. I’m writing this post from the passenger seat of my 2011 Toyota Prius, stealthily stashed away in a Wilmette parking lot. The excitement was so great surrounding tonight’s game that I had to park here. The traffic down Central Street was too tremendous to navigate toward the stadium any further. I had to abandon the car, and walk the rest of the way. That’s how big a game this was. And the student body knew it too. It’s unfortunate that it’s considered a great achievement every time the purple and white-clad fans descend upon Welsh-Ryan Arena and Ryan Field, but that’s what this was. This was one of the few times when every seat was taken, and countless students arriving minutes late to the game found no place for them in the student section. One could wonder when they will expand seating for students at Welsh-Ryan Arena. One could certainly understand why miffed students, finding themselves rebuffed from sitting amongst their colleagues or anyone for that matter, would feel that way. But for now any plans to expand Welsh-Ryan Arena are a joke, particularly when you consider the way the stands are half-filled for most other Big Ten home games. As it was, I was fortunate to snare a seat on this occasion. If I had stayed in the car, I would have arrived at 7:30, too late to sit down, likely to be banished to … well, God knows where. My miraculous decision to park 10 minutes from the stadium saved the day. For me, anyway.

Now, it’s easy to imagine Northwestern fans turning away from Welsh-Ryan Arena after this game. Think about how many times the students have packed the arena, only to see their hometown heroes lose. Sure, there was that win over Michigan State. But more frequently, the fans come, only to see the Wildcats suffer devastating defeats to Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Purdue. But that’s no excuse to stay away. I believe that at this point, fans have to subscribe to the “If you build it, they will come” philosophy of sports team building. Fill up this stadium consistently and maybe the Wildcats will have a better shot at drawing top recruits. Fill up this stadium and perhaps the wins will come. Welsh-Ryan Arena has always been known as one of the softest road games in the Big Ten, and it’s up to us to change that. Packing the stadium three times a year doesn’t undo row after row of empty benches against Purdue or Iowa. If the fans want to turn Welsh-Ryan into a consistent locale for Wildcats victories, let’s start by turning this into one of the toughest home gyms in the Big Ten. I couldn’t care less if we have half the seats of Value City Arena. As we have seen over the past two games, when you pack a small gym like Welsh-Ryan Arena, and start screaming, the noise reverberates. The on-court results shouldn’t inspire us, but they shouldn’t turn us away either. And the atmosphere should inspire us, and let us know that Northwestern is capable of bringing the heat.

Heck, he even drained his free throws, which happens about as often as Bill Carmody keeps his suit jacket on for the whole game.

As for the game itself, Northwestern played such an inspired first half of basketball. Davide Curletti was nearly back to Michigan State form, driving aggressively to the hoop, backing down defenders and grabbing rebounds. He even added a few jump shots, including an impressive fadeaway jumper from the elbow that sent Welsh-Ryan Arena into a frenzy. Heck, he even drained his free throws, which happens about as often as Bill Carmody keeps his suit jacket on for the whole game. But, what I didn’t understand is why Curletti turned silent in the second half. Sure, he added another block or two, but when the game ticked down into the final minutes, Curletti played scared, resorting to his usual post at the elbow, and waiting to find open men to pass to, rather than taking it for himself. John Shurna disappeared too. After a fairly pedestrian 10-point performance in the first half, he was even quieter in the closing act. At one point, he hit a couple of clutch, spinning, whirling dervish shots from within the paint, and it looked like once again he would carry the Wildcats through the tough stretch, but then he inexplicably disappeared. Ever since an odd play, where Shurna came up short, and appeared to limp away from contact, he was not to be seen. I heard that he wasn’t injured, that his shoe simply fell off, but whatever the case, Shurna vanished. The rest of his shots were a junky collection of airballs. Drew Crawford disappeared too, presumably because of injury. Either way, he was virtually absent for nearly the entire second half, and then he was literally absent for the entire overtime period. Which meant that JerShon Cobb of all people ended up taking all the clutch shots as regulation ticked to a close. Why an unproven sophomore had the ball in his hands is a mystery to me.

Take his three-point attempt in the final minute of the game. With ten seconds remaining on the shot clock, the ball ends up in Cobb’s hands. You can’t blame him for shooting, not when John Shurna was stationed out by the top of the arc, a spectator rather than an active participant in the game. But, you can wonder if this is really the play the Wildcats called coming out of a timeout. Cobb, for all his accolades out of high school, has yet to prove himself as a legitimate three-point threat, so for him to take that shot, is a mystery. Yes, he was having a good game, and for that matter, I like what Cobb’s return has brought to Northwestern. His rebounding ability and defensive presence are greatly appreciated. Heck, I loved that one play Tuesday night when Cobb used what his mother gave him, as few players did, backed down his defender, and then faded away for an easy swish in the paint. It’s always mystified me why more players don’t use their butts to create shots, and Cobb did it beautifully Tuesday night. But even during his best performance of the season, he couldn’t knock down a three for his life. All of his sorry attempts bounced off the front rim, so it shouldn’t have come as any surprise when his late-game attempt did the very same. Give credit to Reggie Hearn. His presence on the offensive boards offers something new and exciting for the Cats, and when he secured that rebound, off pure hustle in the final minute, I actually thought Northwestern had a chance for a fleeting moment. That’s what the Wildcats have been missing all these years, but they blew the opportunity, giving the Wolverines the ball with the shot clock off. Unbelievably enough, because of Northwestern’s miserable 18-point performance in the second half, Michigan had a chance to win it at the buzzer. Give the Wildcats credit, they played perfect defense. They used their final foul to give with 4.7 seconds remaining. Then, they contested the Wolverines’ buzzer-beating three-point attempt so beautifully that the shot failed to find even the rim. They had a chance. The arena was rocking.

It felt similar to Pullman. Somehow, the Wildcats miraculously force overtime. The momentum should be coursing through their veins. John Shurna pumped his fist exiting the court following the final buzzer of regulation. Welsh-Ryan Arena was ready to witness a miracle. And then they came out as flat as you could possibly come out in overtime. On offense, it was a series of missed shots from Shurna, misses so bad that you wondered if he was injured, and turnovers. On defense, it was surrendering open three-pointers again and again to the Wolverines. Three three-pointers later and Michigan held a nine-point lead. Northwestern did its usual late-game tease, but per usual, it had dug itself a hole far too deep to climb its way out of. Why the Wildcats can’t figure out a way to set the tone in overtime on their home court is more than a bother, it’s a severe problem. Let’s face it, the Wolverines set the tone for the entire second half, as well as the entire overtime period. Whereas the Wildcats, led by Curletti, attacked the hoop early on, and forced Michigan to go over the limit just 13 minutes into the game, the offense looked dead in the latter two periods, allowing Michigan to confine it to the perimeter. On one of those perimeter plays, Reggie Hearn actually stepped up and hit a three-pointer, from well beyond the arc. I thought that might be the difference, as that gave the Wildcats a late lead. But the offense could never manage anything more. The Wolverines’ defense won the game.

Whatever it is, the Northwestern offense, so frequently lauded for its creativity, frequently seems to drift away in the clutch.

One could wonder why it’s always the opponent’s defense winning the game and not Northwestern’s. We saw it happen in Bloomington, when the Hoosiers and Wildcats were neck and neck entering the final minutes, and Indiana’s defense simply refused to allow Northwestern to score. The Wildcats were unable to do the same. I think, part of it, is that when push comes to shove, Northwestern lacks people who can drive to the basket and create their own shots. Part of it is a lack of ability in the clutch. Whatever it is, the Northwestern offense, so frequently lauded for its creativity, frequently seems to drift away in the clutch. Meanwhile, the 1-3-1 defense is fairly simple to understand. The way Northwestern runs it, the Wildcats don’t just sit in the 1-3-1, they try to apply a flurry of pressure on the ball-handler. The goal is to create turnovers, and against the Golden Gophers, it worked. Minnesota turned it over 21 times, and Northwestern won the game. Even when it forces bad passes, that cause the men on the wings to fumble for the ball, it has done its job, since that gives enough time for the defenders to cut back and cut off the open three-pointer. But fluid ball movement can defeat the 1-3-1 defense each and every time, and on Tuesday, the Wolverines managed to push the ball around the arc, and find the open man on the wings, enough times to win the game. Particularly in overtime. The amount of space Timmy Hardaway Jr. had on some of his three-point attempts was ridiculous. The Michigan shooters had all the time in the world to set their feet, and they cashed in. Give Northwestern credit, its interior defense has gotten much better. The Wildcats are blocking more shots than ever and they didn’t allow the Wolverines to control the paint. But they did allow Michigan to hit three-pointers in overtime that changed the course of the game.

But all of this scheming and work on the chalkboard doesn’t change the fact that Northwestern blew a golden chance tonight. And quite frankly, the Wildcats are running out of chances. Fast.

So, what happens now? Well, Northwestern isn’t done, no matter what the press says. Too many times this season, we’ve heard games described as must-win games (remember those home games against Illinois and Purdue) only to see the Wildcats lose and their tournament hopes remain alive. If they take care of business against Iowa and Penn State, which is easier said than done, they will finish with an 8-10 record in Big Ten play. That gives them a chance. With an 8-10 record, I wouldn’t be surprised if one Big Ten Tournament win was enough to make the NCAA Tournament. But all of this scheming and work on the chalkboard doesn’t change the fact that Northwestern blew a golden chance tonight. And quite frankly, the Wildcats are running out of chances. Fast.

Please forgive me if I have been overly dramatic. Please forgive me if I’ve made any mistakes of memory. This entire post has come from my head. I don’t have any access to stat sheets, here in my darkened car, off of Central Street. It’s only my head and I tonight. And tear ducts that are dried after watching far too many Northwestern games. That’s what this post was for, a chance to rant, empathize and mourn. And now it’s time to move on. Start your engines, Wildcats. It’s time to get this car in motion.

One Magic Moment

Northwestern 83 – Iowa 64

At the conclusion of last night’s battle between the Wildcats and the Hawkeyes, I stood on the floor of Welsh-Ryan Arena, giving high-fives to all the Northwestern players as they walked off the court. And as each player walked by, I uttered one simple statement: Bring This to Mackey. The most important game of the Wildcats’ season awaits them, as they head to West Lafayette for a pivotal contest with the Boilermakers. With the excitement of March Madness already settling in, this game means everything to Northwestern. In past years, the Wildcats would lose this game. This year, they need to reverse the result and defeat a Boilermakers team that really isn’t all that good in my opinion. They lack stars, shooting touch and any significant strengths for that matter. The Wildcats should win, and if they bring to the Hoosier State the same type of effort that they brought against the Hawkeyes, they will win this one.

Quite frankly, I can’t recall a time when I was as proud of Northwestern as I was last night. The Wildcats were in rare form, dominant in a way that I’ve rarely seen them before. Taking on an underrated and relatively hot Hawkeyes team, they delivered an absolute pounding. Dave Sobolewski had the best performance of his young career, finishing with 23 points. But it wasn’t the quantity that impressed me, it was the quality. The freshman point guard wasn’t settling for outside shots, which is a good thing since he lacks the touch of an elite shooter. Instead, he was driving to the hoop relentlessly, time after time. He was pushing the ball up court without fail, sometimes finishing the play by himself with a bold drive and sometimes displaying that trademark vision on the run and finding an open shooter.

Northwestern, for that matter, was dishing the ball all around the court, which probably speaks as poorly of the Hawkeyes’ defense as it speaks well of the Wildcats’ attack. I mean, honestly, what kind of defense lets the ball get flung around the court like that? Northwestern was completing beautiful cross-court passes, utilizing the backdoor game to perfection, hitting threes — all the things they usually strive for — and in an unusual twist, the Wildcats were driving to the hoop with tenacity. Their ability to finish around the hoop was astounding. Thursday night featured an absolute bevy of ridiculous reverse layups, all sorts of close-range shots taken from extraordinary angles, and more often than not, they went in. Whether the Wildcats can make those types of tricky shots on a consistent basis remains to be seen, but it was refreshing to see them drive into the paint and rely on something other than the three.

Back to Sobolewski, it’s too early in his career to make any definitive statements about him and you certainly don’t want to call him a star after just one worthy performance, but this game did show a guy who can do more than just pass the rock. He can drive to the hoop, and push the ball up the court, and not only could he do it, he should do it in every single game. Sobolewski was a little Energizer Bunny out there on Thursday night. Literally from the opening tip to the final whistle, he was sprinting past Iowa’s defense and taking it to the hole. Not every defense will let him through like the Hawkeyes did, and trees like Cody Zeller and Meyers Leonard, I’m sure, are licking their lips at the chance to block Soboloewski one more time, but Sobolewski should continue driving because it keeps a defense honest, and because even if half of his shots get blocked and half go in, that’s still a good percentage. And thankfully for the Wildcats, they only take on the elite big men of the conference a couple of more times this season. Iowa and Penn State lack the type of big men that can swat shots away. Against Ralph Sampson III, Cody Zeller and Jared Sullinger, well let’s just say Sobolewski might want to be a little more careful.

Also, in an underrated point from Thursday’s game, Northwestern’s defense truly played a huge role in its win. When you play a 1-3-1 zone defense, you need to have active hands. That’s the entire point of the zone defense, each player has a sphere around him, about seven feet of wingspan that he takes up and uses to clog the court. The zone is all about intercepting passes, and cutting off areas of the court, but when your hands are down, you might as well be a stick. Thursday night, those Wildcats defenders had their hands out, and the result was a myriad of turnovers, particularly off of errant entry passes. Yes, a fair amount of Iowa’s 18 giveaways came off of passes that sailed into the fifth row of the stands, but even many of those were the result of pressure, and many other steals came in the paint. That’s no coincidence, ladies and gentlemen. It was also a big night for Reggie Hearn, who went a long way toward showing that Sunday afternoon was no fluke. He had another solid game against Iowa, continuing to show off his improved touch from behind the arc, continuing to drive to the hoop and continuing to fight for loose balls.

The statistic of the game though has to be the team assist-to-turnover ratios. Iowa had 14 assists and 18 giveaways; Northwestern had 22 assists and seven turnovers. That’s practically the margin of victory right there if you think about it, and as Bill Carmody astutely pointed out, that was the key to the game.

And now, as a result of their three straight wins, the Wildcats have a path to the NCAA Tournament so simple, even a caveman could do it. Sorry GEICO to steal from you there. Hopefully, the fact that I just mentioned your name makes up for stealing your slogan. Anyway, Northwestern currently stands at 5-6 in Big Ten play. The Wildcats could finish 8-10, win a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament and make it, but why go through all that fuss. It’s reasonable, at this point, to expect them to finish with a 9-9 record. In order to do that, they would have to go 4-3 over their final seven games, and in a perfect coincidence, they have four upcoming games with non-ranked, mediocre teams coming up, as well as three upcoming bouts with Top 25 teams. That should be four wins, three losses right there. But before you all get into a tizzy, note that I said simple, not easy. No Big Ten game is easy, and certainly Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Mackey Arena and the Bryce Jordan Center each present challenges of their own. But the formula is simple enough.

On February 12, 2011, WIN at Purdue. The Boilermakers are not that good a team, they can’t shoot, and neither Robbie Hummel nor Lewis Jackson are bonafide stars. If the Wildcats can overcome their occasional road heebie-jeebies, they should win this one.

On February 18, 2011, WIN versus Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are a gritty team, but they turn the ball over far too much and score far too little to defeat the Wildcats twice in one season. Northwestern needs to use this game as a chance at revenge, and insert pride into the equation. The Wildcats should also be grateful that the man who would have tormented their weak interior defense, Trevor Mbakwe, is out of the season.

On February 21, 2011, WIN versus Michigan. This a tough one, and not just because Michigan is ranked. The Wolverines rebound the ball far better than the Wildcats do, but Northwestern should thrive on its home court, after nearly defeating Michigan at the Crisler Center. It will be interesting to see which Tim Hardaway Jr. shows up at Welsh-Ryan Arena. As talented a player as any in the Big Ten, he has hit just 13 of his last 47 attempts from the field.

On February 25, 2011, WIN at Penn State. University Park has had a hex on Northwestern of late, but the Wildcats need to step up and win this one. The Nittany Lions have struggled this season and are far too one-dimensional to be a legitimate threat. Penn State has made just 38 percent of its shots this season, so this is another chance for Northwestern’s aggressive defense to wreak some havoc.

On March 3, 2011, WIN at Iowa. The Wildcats clearly have better scoring threats than the Hawkeyes do, and are significantly less sloppy. Iowa lacks the type of big man who usually gives Bill Carmody nightmares. Playing on the road will be a challenge but with their NCAA hopes likely on the line in the regular-season finale, the Wildcats needs to play with their hair on fire.

You may notice I’ve put five should-wins on the docket. That’s because, knowing the Wildcats, they will find a way to blow one of these games. But that’s OK. Just win four out of five, and you’ll head to Indianapolis with a NCAA Tournament to play for.

Northwestern vs. Iowa: The Need to Maintain Momentum

The thought heading into tonight’s game against the Iowa Hawkeyes is alright, an easy win for Northwestern. Well, as Lee Corso is quick to say, not so fast, my friend! This is an Iowa team that is 5-6 in Big Ten play, and was able to beat Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, all schools that Northwestern has been unable to beat thus far this season. This Hawkeyes team is rocky, falling to the Boilermakers and Cornhuskers after their big upset of the Wolverines, but they are threatening. And at a half-game in front of the Wildcats in the Big Ten standings, Iowa is a team that Northwestern must pass in order to make the NCAA Tournament. The two teams are on a six-lane highway right now, or however many conference teams will make the NCAA Tournament this season, and the Wildcats could pass the Hawkeyes tonight.

The good news for Northwestern, currently second-to-last in the Big Ten with its -4.8 rebounding margin, is that Iowa has struggled on the boards as well. And the Wildcats should be encouraged by their ability to out-rebound the Fighting Illini at Assembly Hall on Sunday. Shooting 60 percent definitely helped in that effort, and it’s unclear whether Northwestern will be able to pull that off against an Iowa team that has surrendered just 62.5 points per game in its last two appearances. Memories of that 103-point shellacking the Hawkeyes suffered in Bloomington are beginning to fade away, and while this is the Big Ten’s worst team in terms of scoring defense, it appears that Fran McCaffery’s unit is beginning to round into shape. Overall, I believe that statistics aside, Northwestern should be able to score, since Iowa’s last two opponents, Penn State and Nebraska, lack Northwestern’s attacking prowess, and John Shurna and Drew Crawford present a dynamic duo of the likes Iowa has rarely seen before. Iowa’s statistically strong three-point defense raises an interesting question, as to whether Northwestern will be forced to resort to its backdoor passes. But at this point, I’m probably delving too far into the statistics.

The Hawkeyes also have very few people who scare me. They have plenty of people whom I respect, like Matt Gatens, Bryce Cartwright and Aaron White, but none of these guys deserves to be considered among the Big Ten’s elite. Sure, Gatens is averaging 13.9 points per game and shooting 34 percent from behind the arc, but he tends to confine himself to the perimeter, and I don’t consider him an elite driver by any means. I like Cartwright. I think he’s an athletic kid that can clearly do a lot of things, but neither him nor Melsahn Basabe, whose physicality I admire, are the types of players that can take over a game. Also, Iowa is prone to turn the ball over quite a bit, so this is a chance for Northwestern to use its 1-3-1 to force mistakes. Iowa is among the league leaders in steals so there is the potential for both teams to collect plenty of turnovers, and run up and down the court. I think that type of tempo is to Northwestern’s advantage, so the Wildcats should embrace the speed of the game.

Now, it’s time to update the Wildcats’ postseason tournament hopes chart:

Current Record: 4-6

Necessary Record: 8-10

Need to Go (At Least): 4-4

* Below games are ordered by Northwestern’s chance of winning, ranked on a scale of 0 to 10, with 10 being the most likely.

8 Northwestern vs. Iowa, February 9, 2012 at 8:00 p.m. – The Hawkeyes are not bad as evidenced by their comeback victory over the Golden Gophers, but the Wildcats have usually had success keeping Matt Gatens in check. Besides, I’ve never viewed Gatens as a legitimate star. He’s a good shooter, with some ability to drive to the hoop, but he doesn’t fit into the category of Big Ten elite. The Hawkeyes’ defense is too shaky to be trusted, and assuming the Wildcats don’t turn it over twice a minute like the Golden Gophers did, they should be fine in the friendly confines of Welsh-Ryan Arena.

Opponent Profile: Hawkeyes (13-11, 5-6), tied for seventh in the Big Ten, four games back, two-game winning streak (Minnesota, PSU)

7 Northwestern at Penn State, February 25, 2012 at 8:00 p.m. — This is a mediocre Penn State squad, but that hasn’t stopped the Wildcats from falling to the Nittany Lions in the past. Guard Tim Frazier is an absolute beast, averaging 18.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game this season, and while Northwestern has actually kept him in check in the past, he still scares me. Plus, the Wildcats have never had much success in Unhappy Valley, losing every game they’ve played there since February 16, 2002. The Nittany Lions’ +4.1 rebounding margin also scares me, given the Wildcats’ difficulties controlling the boards in the past.

Opponent Profile: Nittany Lions (10-15, 2-10), last in the Big Ten, 7.5 games back, five-game losing streak, last two by 33 points combined

7 Northwestern at Iowa, March 3, 2012 at 1:30 p.m. — Short of Gatens, Melsahn Basabe is a top athlete, but he has yet to put up much production during Big Ten play. While the Hawkeyes have a bunch of talented athletes down low, overachievers in my opinion, none of them are awe-inspiring, and I expect the Wildcats to be able to have some success down low.

Opponent Profile: Hawkeyes (13-11, 5-6), tied for seventh in the Big Ten, four games back, two-game winning streak (Minnesota, PSU)

6 Northwestern at Purdue, February 12, 2012 at 6:00 p.m. — Not to sound like a sore loser, but I wasn’t impressed by the Boilermakers at all when they beat the Wildcats 58-56 at Welsh-Ryan Arena. This is a Purdue team that lacks an elite scorer, since I still refuse to recognize Robbie Hummel as a legitimate star within the Big Ten, and for that matter, this is a Boilermakers team that straight up cannot shoot the rock. They missed more open shots against Northwestern than I care to mention, and the funny thing is, despite how badly the Wildcats played all game, they still only lost by two. I expect Northwestern to come out and win at Purdue, even though Mackey Arena is an undeniably tough gym to play in.

Opponent Profile: Boilermakers (15-9, 5-6), tied for seventh in the Big Ten, four games back, two-game losing streak (Indiana, @OSU), gave the Buckeyes a surprisingly tough fight in Columbus

6 Northwestern vs. Michigan, February 21, 2012 at 7:00 p.m. — The Wolverines may be ranked, but the Wildcats gave them the fight of a lifetime in Ann Arbor not so long ago. In fact, Northwestern easily could have won that game, as Michigan attempted to hand that game over on a silver platter on numerous occasions. The Wildcats simply failed to take advantage, bungling buzzer-beating opportunities and missing critical free throws to spoil a fine shooting day from the field. Undoubtedly, Northwestern has a better offense than Michigan, which isn’t a claim you can make very often about the Wildcats these days, but the question is can they take care of business on the boards against an excellent rebounding team? The Wolverines fired an astounding 18 extra shots when these teams last played, and the Wildcats will have to work to make their shot counts far more even. If the shot counts are even, I’d put money on Northwestern draining more.

Opponent Profile: Wolverines (18-7, 8-4), No. 22 AP, third in the Big Ten, 1.5 games back, haven’t won consecutive games since January 11

6 Northwestern vs. Minnesota, February 18, 2012 at 6:00 p.m. — I cover Golden Gophers basketball for Big Ten or Bust, so I have plenty of experience watching them play, and all I can say is they are a tough, gritty team that can turn any game into a physical, low-scoring contest. Their defense is mean, which could present a challenge for a Wildcats’ attack that struggles against elite defenses, but at the same time, Minnesota doesn’t play all that well away from home and turns the ball over way too much. The Golden Gophers have no elite scorers of Drew Crawford or John Shurna’s caliber, although that being said, Rodney Williams presents numerous matchup problems as an athletic forward who can rebound, dunk and shoot the three. Ralph Sampson III also is flat-out better than Luka Mirkovic and Davide Curletti. He never really dominates a game, but if Minnesota wins, it will be on the legs of Williams, with consistent chip-ins from Sampson III.

Opponent Profile: Golden Gophers (17-7, 5-6), tied for seventh in the Big Ten, four games back, split last four games, won five of seven

3 Northwestern at Indiana, February 15, 2012 at 5:30 p.m. — Northwestern made history last year, breaking a losing streak at Assembly Hall so long that it made my dad’s bald spot look like a recent development. As impressive as that win was, I’m not sure I see it happening again. The Wildcats will have deep difficulties stopping Cody Zeller in the paint. Zeller is so much bigger, more creative and more agile than Northwestern’s interior players that he will cause serious matchup problems. And don’t forget that the Wildcats still aren’t a very good road team. Still, the one thing in their favor is that the Hoosiers rely heavily on the three, and when the outside shots aren’t falling, Indiana is prone to upsets.

Opponent Profile: Hoosiers (18-6, 6-6), fifth in Big Ten, 3.5 games back, lost five of last eight games, perfect non-conference record faded fast

2 Northwestern vs. Ohio State, February 29, 2012 at 7:30 p.m. — Northwestern actually played Ohio State tight on multiple occasions last season, but it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats handing the Buckeyes a stunning defeat in this episode of their new rivalry. Centers Davide Curletti and Luka Mirkovic have struggled all season against centers far lesser than Ohio State big man Jared Sullinger, so I expect Sullinger to absolutely dominate the paint against Northwestern. The Buckeyes also have an able crew of outside shooters, including stud William Buford (who is averaging 15 points per game) and floor general Aaron Kraft, who is a superior version of Dave Sobolewski. In addition to having the offensive weapons necessary to pummel the Wildcats, the Buckeyes also have a stalwart defense that has held opponents to 55 points or less in five of Ohio State’s last seven games. For an offense that has struggled against elite defenses this season, this could be deadly, and I fully expect the Buckeyes to keep the Wildcats in check in this one.

Opponent Profile: Buckeyes (21-3, 9-2), No. 3 AP, first in Big Ten, won six straight, Purdue and Wisconsin challenged them last time out

Raggedy Ann, March Madness and NCAA Playoffs

You take the good…

Well, ladies and gentlemen, I think I know who I want sitting next to me at future Northwestern basketball games. No, it’s not former Wildcats great Jeremy Nash or alum David Schwimmer; instead, it’s College RPI guru Jerry Palm. The eternal optimist believes Northwestern is in fine shape for a NCAA Tournament appearance despite its 4-6 Big Ten record. I’m not sure I believe it, but you got to love it. Check out some of what he said in Monday’s Chicago Tribune article by Teddy Greenstein:

“If not Northwestern, who? Would you rather take teams that haven’t beaten anybody or teams that lose to bad teams? The thing you can say about Northwestern is, it takes a good team to beat ’em.”

It might sound like I’m making fun of him, but I completely agree with his logic. Northwestern has lost eight games this season, contests against Baylor, Creighton, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The Bears and Buckeyes are clearly elite teams, the Badgers and Golden Gophers are tough on the road and the Golden Gophers are underrated in my opinion. The only bad loss in that bunch is the Wildcats’ home loss to the Boilermakers, and they will need to claim revenge at Mackey Arena this weekend. They also have a chance to get revenge against the Golden Gophers and Wolverines at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Those are key games that Northwestern ought to win, and if the Wildcats do win those games, that will erase some of the bad memories from earlier this season, and begin to restore that old sparkle to their NCAA Tournament resume.

Also, more credit has to be handed to Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney and Big Ten Administrators Council chairman Jim Phillips for getting behind a playoff idea for NCAA football. Not like a four-team playoff would affect the Big Ten all that much, since the last time the conference landed a team in the top four was in 2007. It certainly will not affect Northwestern in the near future. But still, give credit to those two men for sensing the growing tide of the country. This year’s national championship game was boring as heck. No one wanted to tune in. That being said, I’m not sure the single championship game versus playoff system is the main issue. I think Delaney pinned the tail on the donkey when he told the Tribune:

There is a very strong sense that we have missed the boat and are playing games too late. Students are back in class, people are back at work.

Obviously, public fury has tended to center on the seemingly ridiculous bowl system, which allows pretty much every .500 team to participate in the postseason, but the bowl system does have its share of positives, and any changes would be difficult to achieve. While most people agree a playoff system makes sense, it’s difficult to negotiate, and involves elongating an already lengthy schedule. Rather than engage in that rancor right away, why not start with Delaney’s common-sense solution and push bowl games back into December. In my opinion, the last bowl game of the year should be on January 1st, when everyone is still off of work and in a celebratory mood. What better way to start the new year? Start the day with the Rose Bowl, then build up tension until you get to the BCS Championship Game at night’s end. Either way, get it out of the way in those first few days of January, so then everyone can focus their attention on basketball. The current system makes no sense. Delaney is right, the college football season has lost all momentum by the time that championship game occurs. Of course, the LSU and Alabama fans will watch their teams compete on any day, but if you want to draw in the casual fan, you got to catch people while they’re on vacation and in the mood for college football, and you definitely need to get all of those bowl games out of the way before the monolith that is the NFL Playoffs begins.

In other news, how does a basketball team overcome getting absolutely dominated by an opposing post player? Score more and score often. Northwestern may not have been able to stop Meyers Leonard Sunday afternoon, but they did everything else right, including hitting a blistering 60 percent of its shots from the field, turning the ball over just 12 times and out-rebounding Illinois. Wait, one second, did I just say out-rebound? Why yes, I did. It appears that for the first time since the Ice Age, Northwestern has out-rebounded an opponent, and this despite Luka Mirkovic’s absence, or as I might say, because of his absence. Still, the Wildcats were limited to one big man, and got just four rebounds from center Davide Curletti, so the fact that they out-rebounded the Fighting Illini comes as an absolute stunner. I guess that’s the one good thing about a game in which both teams shoot over 50 percent, it puts the importance of rebounding at a minimum, which obviously works to Northwestern’s advantage. Still, Leonard should have to walk around with his underwear pulled over his head or something for allowing the Wildcats to snag more rebounds in the post. That’s just embarrassing. And Reggie Hearn should be given a day off of practice for his valuable work on the offensive boards. Who said the season of miracles was over? Well done, Wildcats!

Also, from Teddy Greenstein’s Monday article, our quote of the day, and really another gem from Bill Carmody:

In the past sometime he has been like a Raggedy Ann doll when he drives, with his arms flying all over the place. Now he seems more controlled. There was no question he was going to finish those drives.

Who would have thought we would be comparing John Shurna with Raggedy Ann? Well done, Carmody, well done. Now let’s just hope opponents don’t catch on to this quote, and begin waving Raggedy Ann dolls every time Shurna shoots a free throw. That would be the last thing a guy who has struggled a bit from the charity stripe in recent weeks needs.

You take the bad…

On a more tragic side, OK, perhaps tragic is a slightly dramatic word, but as I was watching the Giants’ Super Bowl festivities on Tuesday, I couldn’t figure out what made the moment so poignant. A Super Bowl parade is, of course, a celebration, but then I realized that it’s also a farewell, a farewell to football season, and a farewell to a team that will live forever in our hearts, but will never again take the field as one piece. Personnel changes are inevitable and the Giants are facing a turbulent off-season full of difficult decisions. Twenty-four members of the team, a significant chunk of the Super Bowl champions, are eligible for free agency this off-season. It includes Super Bowl heroes, like Chase Blackburn and Mario Manningham, and longtime mainstays, like Kareem McKenzie and Aaron Ross. Loads of crucial players are up for free agency, and the blight of champions has the potential to strike at every position. Deon Grant would be a big loss to the secondary, Mario Manningham to the wide receivers corp, Steve Weatherford to the special teams unit and Jake Ballard and Bear Pascoe to the tight ends unit.

The stars are all signed. Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck will all be back, but so many role players are liable to depart. So, it’s a nerve-wracking off-season for the Giants, and with one of the higher payrolls in the NFL, New York will not have much spare room to work with. What I would love to see, and I know will never happen, is for some of these players to accept lower contracts to stay in New York. Every time after the Super Bowl, you hear players declare how much they love their team and their city, but when it comes time to put their money where their mouth is, they flee faster than an Ahmad Bradshaw burst through the middle. This Giants team can be great once again, but if you want all the cogs to come back, that means some people might have to accept less than they feel they deserve. Are you willing to take the cut, Big Blue?

Also, one last note, I was seriously happy to see Northwestern take down Illinois, particularly after that cocky little Rockettes-style dance the Fighting Illini players pulled early in the game. I didn’t like their cockiness, particularly after some of the losses they have suffered thus far this season. They have no right to be grinning like that. You contrast that with the adorably linked arms of an understandably nervous Wildcats team in the final minutes of Sunday’s game, and you can see why I was particularly hungry for Northwestern to win that intra-state rivalry.