North Carolina Prevails, Barely, Over Ohio

North Carolina might be without the finest point guard in the country, Kendall Marshall, but the Tar Heels showed that any team that has two elite big men like Tyler Zeller and John Henson will be difficult to defeat in the month of March. It wasn’t pretty but North Carolina prevailed in overtime, downing Ohio, 73-65. The Tar Heels did this behind 20 points and 23 rebounds from Zeller, and at game’s end, North Carolina coach Roy Williams stated the obvious, when asked about whether Marshall will play in the Elite Eight:

“We’re just happy North Carolina is playing on Sunday.”

The Tar Heels will live to play another day, despite Harrison Barnes’ best efforts to throw the game. Barnes was puzzling all game long, hitting just 3-of-16 from the field, including five turnovers. Handed the ball at the end of regulation, presumably because of his tremendous reputation as a clutch performer as opposed to any good he worked Friday night, he drove to the hoop and turned it over. With a tie game, seconds remaining on the clock, and no shot clock, Barnes did the one thing he wasn’t supposed to do: cough the ball up. Fortunately, for Barnes and the Tar Heels, Bobcats’ sharpshooter D.J. Cooper’s half-court heave rattled around the rim, forcing overtime.

In the extra period, Barnes hit a huge jump shot from the elbow, and earned his way to the free-throw line with a head-fake from the same spot. But the story of the game, and of the extra period, was Reggie Bullock, who set the tone with a three-pointer to kick off overtime. Bullock finished with 17 points, on 6-of-13 shooting and 5-of-10 shooting from behind the arc. His three-pointer toward the end of regulation, which put the Tar Heels up 63-61, was another game-changer, and his 10 rebounds also provided a big boost.

No one would have guessed the drama that would ensue at game’s end from the way this contest started. Entering the first commercial break, it was quite clear that North Carolina was the superior team. The Tar Heels took an 8-4 lead, with all eight of their points coming from inside the paint. With Stilman White leading the show quite capably, including a finely timed pass to Henson as he cut toward the hoop, the Tar Heels appeared to be in good hands. Leading 17-8, White advanced another beautiful bounce pass to Henson as he streaked across the post, after which Henson drew the foul and converted on both free throws. Even on the one play in which things did not go right for White, a play in which he faked a shot, drove aggressively to the basket, only to run into a big man and lose his grip on the ball, he recovered quite gracefully, easily dishing the ball to Zeller for a hook shot. Obviously, much of the concern about White centers on the fact that he is a walk-on, attempting to replace a five-star recruit in Dexter Strickland. But just as pertinent in my mind, he is only 19 years old, a freshman in college, tasked with leading the most hyped team in college basketball. Talk about a task of epic proportions.But he responded with six assists and no turnovers, and more importantly, showed incredible restraint, attempting just four shots all game long. He passed up several open shots, and showed the type of restraint that we would all love for Barnes to possess.

Despite his injured wrist, Henson started the game with two emphatic dunks, the former of which caused a visible grimace to flicker across Henson’s face. Meanwhile, Zeller was effective, blocking two shots and causing enough fear to disrupt Ohio’s entire post game. When Ivo Baltic had a chance down low, just feet away from the basket, he seemed to bail out as soon as he saw Zeller guarding him, feebly attempting a weak hook shot that never came close to falling. Then the jump shots started to fall for North Carolina. Three-pointers by Harrison Barnes, as if people forgot that North Carolina has one of the top NBA prospects in the country, and Reggie Bullock fell right through the cylinder, and Bullock also hit a fine jump shot from well behind the free-throw line.

Meanwhile, Ohio was weak on the offensive end. The Bobcats entered the intermission shooting a measly 23 percent from the field, including a miserable 1-of-13 clip from the four forwards on their roster. Their interior struggles were best symbolized by that early errant play in which the Bobcats couldn’t convert feet from the basket under heavy pressure from Zeller. Indeed, they abdicated the post, an unhappy but necessary concession that was a clear result of the Tar Heels’ size. So, they were forced to rely on a series of jump shots, which mainly found the front rim, not the bottom of the net, and on a series of drives to the post, which ended weakly. These wisps of drives were capped not with authority, but with careful shots, fade-away shots, that were well shielded from the possibility of a block, but often failed to draw even the slightest touch of the rim.

But the Bobcats fought their way back, literally fought their way back, with aggressive turnover-forcing defense. Ohio swatted away at the ball, knocking it loose several times. It got in the way of North Carolina’s passing lanes and forced some turnovers, even resulting in a rare fast-break lay-up for the Bobcats. All in all, the Tar Heels turned it over 13 times in the first half, an unacceptable number as coach Roy Williams pointed out during his halftime interview. In contrast, the Bobcats turned it over just six times in the first half.

Three pointers, of course, are the one way to defeat the Tar Heels’ tough interior defense. The Bobcats drained four in the first half, three of them coming from the fingertips of Nick Kellogg. Not only did a perimeter-based attack help avoid the twin towers of Henson and Zeller, but it also gave Ohio a chance on the boards. Whereas missed two-pointers tend to fall within the grasp of the tree-like limbs of Henson and Zeller, the long rebounds off missed three-pointers tended to fall in Ohio’s favor. Despite the Bobcats’ distinct disadvantage down low, they were able to grab four offensive rebounds in the first half, just one less than the Tar Heels were able to grab. While Ohio made only 4 of its 15 three-point attempts in the first half, when you consider that it snared approximately three of those missed three-pointers, it’s actually a fairly efficient form of offense.

The question left hanging after the first half, and after Friday’s game, was whether Ohio could have pulled off the upset with a in-tune Cooper. Cooper finished with a miserable 3-of-20 clip from the field, including just 1-of-10 from behind the arc. His uncanny swagger, attempting shots from 35 feet out toward game’s end and spotting up from a myriad of unlikely locales all game long, is obviously what makes Cooper so good, but it’s also what lost the game for Ohio on Friday night. His miserable shooting performance compromised an awful lot of possessions for the Bobcats.

At halftime, you got an interesting sense of two different outlooks on a game that teetered toward being a North Carolina blowout before settling into a fairly close game. Williams was understandably irritated about his team’s 13 turnovers, and could only talk about how his team needed to play better, a message he reiterated after the game. Meanwhile, John Groce seemed thrilled with his team at the intermission, and implored his team to fight on, although after the game, he admitted how much a loss like this stung. But it’s a story of two different teams with two different sets of expectations. For North Carolina, given its talent, a small lead over Ohio at halftime was not acceptable. The Tar Heels’ sloppy play was not acceptable. Neither was Barnes’ lackadasical style, and so Williams needed to fire his team up, which I’m sure he did his best to do. Meanwhile, Ohio gave all the fight it could in the first half, and managed to dig its way out of a deep hole. It kept hope alive, a hope that Groce wanted to prevail during his halftime speech. Two different perspectives, both fitting for the situation. Two of the game’s best coaches were right on message.

In the second half, Ohio drew North Carolina’s lead down to four, on an opening three-pointer by Walter Offutt. The Bobcats had a chance to draw the Tar Heels’ lead down further on a beautiful entry pass to Jon Smith, who was wide open behind the North Carolina defense. But Smith was somehow unable to put the ball in, either by lay-up or dunk, rolling the ball off the front rim. His miss, on an indescribably easy shot, might have been the turning point of the game, as North Carolina came back and scored on a short Zeller hook shot. Then, Henson finished a fast-break with a pretty finger roll. That was followed by another pretty fast break, as White was blocked on his initial drive, but Zeller’s diligence and hard work paid off as he picked up the deflection and laid the ball back in. That brought North Carolina’s lead back to 10 points.

But, as the process of evolution dictates, Ohio only came back with greater fervor and skill. The Bobcats hit their first four three-pointers of the half to draw within a point of the Tar Heels. Even with D.J. Cooper still unable to hit from behind the arc, or anywhere, Ohio streaked, led by the play of Offutt. His 26 points, on 10-of-18 shooting, including 6-of-10 from behind the arc, paid enormous dividends for Ohio, and the fact that he fouled out in the closing minutes of overtime may have been the biggest break to fall North Carolina’s way late. It was at that moment that I knew Ohio was not going to rally back one last time.

But transitioning back to the early moments of the second half, the Bobcats showed marked improvement from the first half, doing a far better job of earning their three-point opportunities. Instead of forcing up prayers from downtown, they threatened inside, displaying a menace in the post, before dishing it out to the perimeter. This process resulted in multiple wide-open three-pointers. First, there was an excellent drive toward the basket, in which the Bobcats player worked his way under the hoop, drawing both Henson and Zeller on defense, before kicking it back out to Offutt for an open three-pointer. Then, Ivo Baltic demonstrated why the Tar Heels needed to keep their eyes open down low, finishing with a strong lay-up down low. Ohio continued the fun with a three-pointer from Offutt, off another Baltic assist. The Bobcats’ ability to at least penetrate the post in the second half was a key part of their rally.

North Carolina threatened to pull away, first with a made three-pointer from Bullock, and then with an authoritative dunk from James Michael McAdoo. But just when Ohio fell back into a funk, the Bobcats got the break they had long been looking for. Cooper, at long last, made a three-pointer, and then a sloppy turnover by North Carolina, led to another Ohio possession. The Bobcats were able to capitalize with another open three-pointer, created by a nice baseline drive by Offutt that freed up Kellogg from behind the three-point line. His ensuing shot gave Ohio a 47-46 lead.

But the Tar Heels can shoot too. Bullock drained a three-pointer from the top of the key, and then Henson hit a turnaround. Not to be deterred, the Bobcats got another beautiful play from Cooper, who everyone assumes is going to shoot the ball on every opportunity. Instead, he whipped a pass 30 feet to Reggie Keely, who finished with Ohio’s most authoritative dunk of the evening. That drew the Bobcats within 53-52. And then on a fast-break opportunity created by the Tar Heels’ inability to finish, Cooper took it to the one player on North Carolina that isn’t a blocking threat, White, with no fear, finishing with a lay-up and a chance at the charity stripe.

The funny thing is that while Ohio was most well known for its three-pointers Friday night, North Carolina possesses some of the top three-point shooters in the nation, the kind of guys who won the McDonald’s three-point shooting competition in high school, and the kind of guys who can hit from deep whenever the mood strikes them. Those three-pointers kept the Tar Heels alive, as Barnes and Bullock gave North Carolina the lead back. But then Offutt came back with another incredible drive to the hoop, a fine play in which he switched hands, laid it in, and drew the foul. But with the score tied at 63, and the chance to put the pressure on the Tar Heels with a make, Offutt succumbed to the pressure himself, clanking his attempt from the charity stripe.

As a result of that critical missed free throw by Ohio, North Carolina had the ball at the end of regulation with no pressure. The shot clock was off. The Tar Heels had a chance to win the game. And assuming no sloppy mistakes, a big assumption given North Carolina’s walk-on freshman point guard, the Tar Heels would, at the very least, have five minutes in overtime to try to win the game if their final possession was unsuccessful. But the problem wasn’t their questionable point guard, it was Harrison Barnes. Ice-cold all night long, Barnes tried forcing a score and ended up giving the ball away, providing Cooper with one miraculous chance to win the game. He nearly did, firing a little too long and a little too far to the right, coming inches away from a game-winner. Instead, it was a Butler-like near-miss.

And then came overtime. Ohio, which relied on three-point shooting all night long, scoring 36 of its 65 points from behind the arc, scored just two points in the extra period. North Carolina did just enough to win, and as Williams said at game’s end, just winning is more than enough for this particular evening. They’ll have plenty of time to work out the kinks, as they await the winner of the Kansas/North Carolina State game in the Elite Eight.

Federer Back On Top, Purdue Comes Oh So Close

Watching North Carolina take on Creighton made for an interesting sight. Obviously, the big news was that the Tar Heels lost another key cog in their championship machine. It’s not clear how long Kendall Marshall will be out for, but I think if he’s out, that ends all of their hopes. There is no better facilitator of an attack than Marshall, who entered the year as one of the best passers in the country, and then improved his shot greatly this season to become a true all-around weapon. With his wrist now fractured, and John Henson’s wrist in spotty shape as well, bad luck has befallen North Carolina at exactly the wrong time. This team is talented enough to overcome any loss, including Henson’s, but losing Marshall might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Bet Tar Heels fans are wishing they didn’t treat Larry Drew II so badly now. They could really use him at this moment.

Anyway, back to the game. As ridiculous as Creighton junior center Gregory Echenique looks with his pink shoes and sporty glasses, I like his aggression, even if he did get away with a Shaquille O’Neal-like elbow on Tyler Zeller. He moves pretty fast for his size, beating nearly everyone up the court on one Creighton fast break, and has a nice collection of hook shots at his disposal. He also showcased a few nice fakes and some lateral quickness and had an absolutely vicious dunk on a North Carolina defender. Between him and Doug McDermott, who can clean up down low as well as anyone, the Bluejays are impressive down low.

Tar Heels forward John Henson, of course, was wild early, drawing a rather stupid technical foul when he got up in a Creighton player’s face after what appeared to be incidental contact. He then let the off-the-court antics get in his way on-the-court, as he tried to avenge his anger on one quick play, overpowering a layup well beyond the square, for an embarrassing miss. He quickly regained control, however, hitting a nice lay-up, followed by a jump shot and then blocking what would have been an easy lay-up on the defensive end. Meanwhile, Kendall Marshall was his usual stellar self, leading the fast break with his long, quick passes, while also spotting up and hitting everything in sight. He scored 13 points in the game’s first 13 minutes, including a three-pointer and an even prettier play, in which he trailed his pass, and ended up with a finger roll. Marshall continues to prove himself as a rare talent.

As for Henson, who left the game temporarily with an injury toward the end of the first half, he played long enough to place the game in the Tar Heels’ hands, and that was enough for Sunday. As if to reassure anxious North Carolina fans, James McAdoo scored on an easy cut to the basket on the very next play, as if to remind Tar Heels’ fans that they still had an All-American under the hoop. Two if you count Zeller. That’s the luxury of rooting for a basketball factory like North Carolina, of course, where if one star gets injured, you churn out another. Moments later, McAdoo reaffirmed his presence on the court, blocking McDermott as he tried to swing back and forth and maneuver his way toward an open shot. Creighton had cut its deficit from 15 to eight at that point, so McAdoo’s block was crucial. Then, Marshall missed a free throw, and McAdoo tipped the rebound back to a teammate. It was a solid end to the half for McAdoo if not for the Tar Heels, who entered the intermission with a tenuous eight-point lead. Coach Roy Williams, clearly unhappy with the 7-0 Bluejays run to end the half, told the sideline reporter that his team had to stop playing “silly basketball” and when the sideline reporter tried to eek out some praise for Marshall, the veteran coach simply mentioned that it would be nice if Marshall would stop turning the ball over, please. It was one of the more entertaining sideline interviews you will ever see, and gave viewers some idea of how uncomfortable that locker room might be. In retrospect, Williams would probably take Marshall and his turnovers, over walk-on point guard Stilman White. Meanwhile, if Marshall truly is out, Tyler Zeller will have to step it up in the post, and interior weapons James McAdoo and Desmond Hubert might have to help lead a grittier Tar Heels attack, as they transition from Showtime to old-fashioned Motor City basketball. Of course, anytime you have a weapon like Harrison Barnes, who wowed me with consecutive step-back three-pointers from well behind the arc, you have a chance. He’s the ultimate athlete, if not yet the ultimate basketball player. With Marshall out, the open looks for P.J. Hairston and Reggie Bullock might be no longer. Instead, of Marshall creating shots for them, guys like Barnes will have to create their own shots in the half-court offense, because I don’t think Stilman White is going to beat the defense up the court, with his legs or his passes.

Also, one more note, the whole stadium setup of the NCAA Tournament is mind-boggling and patently unfair. I know it’s inevitable that some regional arenas will fall somewhere close to the homes of the 68 teams participating in March Madness, but to have Duke and North Carolina’s games take place in Greensboro, North Carolina is absurd. Why not put Duke and North Carolina in the West bracket to avoid such occurrences? Because otherwise it’s simply unfair to teams like Lehigh and Creighton, to put them in a stadium with 14,000 Tar Heels fans or 10,000 Blue Devils fans. That just doesn’t seem right. Especially when Creighton, instead of playing in the Omaha region, was forced to play in Greensboro. That’s pretty messed up.

Meanwhile, in one of the major stories of this year’s NCAA Tournament, Purdue nearly capped off a dream weekend for the Big Ten. If the Boilermakers had beaten the Jayhawks, they would have become the fifth conference team to make it into the Sweet Sixteen. Ultimately, they fell short. But while Purdue may have lost, Robbie Hummel will never be forgotten. This is one of those games that will be aired over and over again on ESPN Classic, as it was a nail-biter the entire way, from the early moments when you wondered how much longer Kansas would miss easy shots for and wondered how many more three-pointers Purdue could hit, to the late moments when the Boilermakers’ lead was continually whittled down, but never seemed to fade away. The end was magical, as multiple Purdue shots came a smidgen away from falling, including what would have been a game-tying three-pointer at the buzzer. Down three, the Boilermakers got the perfect inbound pass, a beautiful half-court heave to Ryne Smith, who nearly banked it home, but his half-court shot ultimately glanced off of the front rim. And so it ended, one of the most entertaining games of this March Madness, and one of the great stories of this college basketball season, the improbable rebirth of Robbie Hummel.

Purdue seized an early ten-point lead behind incredible three-point shooting, particularly from Robbie Hummel. The senior was confidently taking shots from everywhere, from well behind the arc, and with defenders on him. He hit several tough shots from the baseline, and each time, his shot looked the same, rolling off the bottom of the bucket. He was in the zone. He didn’t hesitate. He simply shot. Purdue, as a whole, took that philosophy, rolling off screens, and stopping in motion to take three-pointers. On the other hand, you had to believe that Kansas would come back once it stopped trying to shoot the ball so much, and started exploiting its natural advantage in the paint. Why the Jayhawks came out shooting three-pointers, I’ll never know. But still they were missing some easy shots, and you had to figure that they wouldn’t shoot at a 2-of-16 rate for the duration of the contest. Momentum first started to swing in my opinion when D.J. Byrd tried to save a loose ball out-of-bounds, only to fling it right into Kansas’ hands, leading to a fast break and an intentional foul call, which was bogus in my opinion, since he was going for the block. Regardless, it got the Jayhawks’ fan base incensed, and then when Conner Teahan made a three-pointer with minutes to go in the first half to draw Kansas within six, it was clear that it was game on. Same when Tyshawn Taylor drained a three-pointer to draw Kansas within four. From there on out, it was a physical contest, and while the Jayhawks were certainly dominant on the boards, you have to give the Boilermakers credit for their impressive physicality. That physicality rewarded them in the post, where they held Thomas Robinson in check for the majority of the evening.

But at the end, as Purdue took a six-point lead into the intermission, it was all about Hummel, particularly on one possession in which all of Purdue’s cuts were blocked off. With five seconds left, Hummel was behind the arc, and was dribbling away from the basket, a hopeless wanderer it seemed, until he suddenly turned around, and chucked up a quick shot. Again, it fell right in. Finishing the half with 22 points, Hummel literally missed just one free-throw attempt and one three-point attempt in the first half. He stepped out-of-bounds on one drive to the basket, but other than that, he was picture-perfect: aggressive on the boards, and sterling on the shot. It was a long time in coming for Hummel, who has endured so much, and is now enjoying the moment. As someone who just suffered a sprained ankle himself, I admire Hummel’s boldness and reckless abandon on the court, flopping about, even after he underwent two ACL surgeries on the same knee.

In the second half, you could see the difference from the opening possession. It’s not as if Hummel was open in the first half, most of his three-pointers came with a defender marking him, but in the second half, Kansas stepped it up a notch, harassing Hummel as he tried to post up, and even cutting Hummel off as he attempted to get rid of the ball, nearly forcing a turnover. But Purdue’s other scorers stepped up in Hummel’s wake, at least at first. More important, the Boilermakers started adding offensive rebounds to their arsenal, taking advantage of the Jayhawks’ zone defense, to find their way to the glass. They had five more shots than the Jayhawks did midway through the second half, a reversal of what happened in the first half, but the shots began to abandon Purdue. Timely shots maintained its lead for a while, but with Lewis Jackson unable to finish his drives to the hoop, and the threes suddenly not falling, the game began to tighten up. Kansas had a big chance, down 47-44, when it got several open shot opportunities, boosted by multiple offensive rebounds, but it couldn’t take advantage, and on the other end, D.J. Byrd again proved that he could do more than hit threes, grabbing the offensive rebound, and drawing a foul to get to the charity stripe. His ensuing free-throws brought the Boilermakers’ lead to five.

But Purdue’s lack of elite scorers killed it at game’s end. While Kansas had Thomas Robinson there to block Lewis Jackson’s final failed swoop to the hoop, Purdue only had Hummel, which was good enough for the majority of the game but not for its entirety. While the Jayhawks had Elijah Johnson heaving it half-court to Tyshawn Taylor for an alley-oop with a little over a minute remaining, the Boilermakers had no such flare. Give credit to Johnson. That was an incredibly risky play, with his team trailing by three, and with an advantage on the fast-break, to go for the alley-oop. If it fails, Purdue probably wins the game, and Johnson finds himself in Bill Self’s doghouse. But instead, the play worked to perfection. Meanwhile, Purdue got a couple of last big plays from Robbie Hummel. He had a beautiful score off of an inbound pass, in which he caught the ball in mid-air, hung in the stratosphere as he flowed toward the hoop and let a little floater go that found its way into the hoop. Later on, he made a gorgeous power move to the hoop, kissing the ball high off of the glass for two points. But 22 of Hummel’s 26 points came in the first half, as did 36 of Purdue’s 60 points, and without him, the Boilermakers simply weren’t the same. Lewis Jackson, as quick and spritely as he is, couldn’t finish a drive to save his life, and as lovely as Purdue’s cast of characters are, they couldn’t step up when they needed to the most. And Jackson, at the end, killed them, trying to dribble out possessions like a man working his way around a minefield. It reminded me of the old computer game, Minesweeper, as Jackson dribbled around, trying to avoid contact, until he dribbled right into a Jayhawks’ defender. His turnover with a minute or so remaining was an absolute cardinal sin, and a deadly bad break to befall Purdue.

Ladies and gentlemen, in spite of tonight’s loss, watch out for the Boilermakers. That’s all I have to say. Not necessarily this year. I don’t think this Purdue team ever had what it took to win a national championship. Not necessarily next year, because Hummel’s loss will be hard to cope with. But in the next couple of years, with a Top 15 recruiting class coming in, and one of the best coaches in the nation at its helm, watch out for Purdue. Seriously, what Matt Painter has done with a bunch of feisty role players and a couple of shooters is astounding. The Boilermakers possess such strong and fundamental defense. This is a team that you can say with certainty is a well-coached squad. Give Painter credit. Purdue has its man.

On the upset side of things, nothing is more depressing than a dandy of an underdog falling flat in the ensuing round. After all the energy, hype and hoopla generated from a thrilling upset, it’s as much of a downer as you can get when said underdog falls by 20 points in the next round. It’s as if, after a joyous moment of anarchy, order is restored. Disbelief turns into belief, before falling back into disbelief. That happened to some extent with Norfolk State. People will not notice, they will only remember the stunning upset, but after beating Missouri, the Spartans were demolished by the Gators. So, they will be thought of forever on as one-hit wonders, a group of men who came together on one special night, before the reality of their inferiority reasserted itself against Florida. Unlike VCU which will long be remembered for one magical season, Norfolk State will be remembered for one magical night. Lehigh, on the other hand, fought valiantly against Xavier, disappointing nobody. Not that there were many people to disappoint. It was sad to see the number of empty seats at the end of the Xavier-Lehigh game. Clearly, a mass exodus of fans followed the conclusion of the North Carolina game, which is a shame, considering how much good basketball remained. Wouldn’t Tar Heels fans want to stick around to see the Mountain Hawks team that downed the mighty Blue Devils?

Meanwhile, on the tennis court, John Isner didn’t seem to be on the attack in the championship match of the BNP Paribas Open as he was in his semifinal match against Novak Djokovic. Roger Federer was able to return his serves to the back-end of the court, often pressing Isner up against the back line. Meanwhile, Federer displayed a dominant serve of his own, compiling three straight aces at one point, and indeed, he never appeared challenged on his own serve. His drop shot was devastating, he hit the lines with no fear and he took advantage of Isner’s lanky build. Far too often, Isner simply gave up on the ball, freezing in the middle of the court, unsure of where to go, absolutely sure of the point’s fate.

The game really turned on the first tiebreaker, as emotion and momentum swayed back and forth throughout. Federer angrily swung his racket, and smacked an extra ball into the net, after falling behind 3-2. He was far happier after breaking consecutive serves from Isner, but Federer was broken himself, and later on in the tiebreak, Isner fought back with a serve so powerful that Federer was left waving his racket like a wimpy wand. Ultimately, in a tiebreaker that remained close until the very end, Federer was able to hold his own, thus securing an impressive and hard-fought victory.

Huskies Humiliate Wildcats

Washington Huskies 76 – Northwestern Wildcats 55

I had to think for a long time about what I would say in this blog post. What does a Wildcats fan say after Washington absolutely obliterated Northwestern in the second round of the NIT Tournament.

I guess I’ll start with what my mind is telling me, as opposed to what my heart is telling me. After watching the Huskies show off bigger muscles, better drives and more belligerent defense for 40 minutes on Friday night, it’s tempting to say that the Wildcats need to go into rebuilding mode. Fire Carmody. Abandon the Princeton offense. Stray away from the 1-3-1 pressure zone. All are tempting sentiments.

Instead, I will plead for calm. One night should not define a program. One night should not override years of progress. One night should not override slow, if meandering, footsteps toward a better future.

The holes are glaring at this point, and they are real. This team cannot defend against the three-pointer, which is a classic vulnerability of the 1-3-1 defense. When teams are able to move the ball rapidly around the perimeter, they will find openings, and they will find open shots. This team is entirely incompetent on the glass. They look like a mismatched group of midgets going against a gaggle of giants on each and every rebound. Even when they do pick up a rebound, it’s usually a strenuous procedure, characterized by multiple tips and a tumultous scrum for the ball as opposed to other teams that simply catch the ball off of the rim. They are far too reliant on the three-pointer and they do not drive enough on offense.

And I will say this now, and I will say this throughout this post, their leading scorers go silent far too often. Don’t get me wrong. I love John Shurna. I think he is a tremendous player, particularly as a shooter. But the fact that he had just three shot attempts last night as the wheels fell off in the second half is unacceptable. Shurna eventually starting driving madly toward the basket, but by then it was too late, with the Huskies already holding onto a 20-point lead. Where was Shurna when Washington began its little run? The fact that I’ve noticed throughout this season is that Shurna isn’t very clutch. He turns the ball over in the final minutes, gets locked down on defense and misses free throws. I love him, but I can’t recall the last clutch three he hit. Has there been one since his game-winner over Ohio State his sophomore year? Meanwhile, Drew Crawford took a significant step this season, but he is still inconsistent as can be. Although he averaged 16 points per game this season, he reverted to old habits, disappearing when his team needed him most, to seal a NCAA Tournament bid against Minnesota. He scored just eight points  on 2-of-11 shooting. He made everyone forget those struggles with a dominating performance against Akron but then scored just five points against Washington. Asides from a gorgeous three-pointer taken from way behind the arc, he did nothing, attempting just six shots. How does the star of a team take just six shots in 30 minutes of play? When the team is struggling, Shurna and Crawford ought to have the ball in their hands. Instead, this team reacts very slowly, and it seems like when they’re in the middle of an offenisve funk, they don’t necessarily have anyone ready to step up. These are not knee-jerk reactions on my part, or examples of a sports journalist confusing a 24-hour virus with a chronic disease. These problems did not emerge tonight and they did not emerge last week. These are season-long problems, and they will certainly need to be addressed this summer.

John Shurna is the leading scorer in school history, and he has deeper range than anybody I’ve ever seen. He has the capability to drive awfully well for someone his size, and he’s a very underrated defender, who blocks shots far more often than his zize would suggest. But he cannot do it alone. He cannot do everything for this team and that showed Friday night .He is not Jordan Taylor and he is not Jared Sullinger. He can be an extremely hot player, but I would stop short of saying that he can score at will. Last night, he was barely able to play a role in the offense, let alone score at will, in the second half. The funny thing is people will look at the box score, see that he scored 24 points on 6-of-12 shooting, including a 5-of-7 clip from behind the arc, and assumed that he had another great game, but that’s where stats are deceiving and you have to trust your eyes. Shurna was great early, but he faded after 14 first-half points, attempting just three shots and missing all three during the game-defining run when Washington expanded a seven-point lead into a 20-point advantage.

What I will say is the travesty that occurred in the second half was a long time in coming. It’s not like they played that much worse in the second half than they did in the first half. The difference was Washington started draining the three-pointers that Northwestern had left open all night. While the Huskies made just 5-of-21 from behind the arc in the first half, they made 6-of-11 three-point attempts in the second half. The difference was the Huskies started making their putbacks. They finished with a 16-2 advantage in second-chance opportunities. The difference was Northwestern was no longer able to hold tight as a result of its occasional three-point barrages. The Wildcats went just 22 percent from the field in the second half, including just 4-of-16 from behind the three-point line, including several misses on wide-open shots. That’s how a tight back-and-forth game, that originally swung like a pendelum in the single-digits, turned into a 20-plus point rout. If these two teams played 20 times, I don’t think Washington would win by 20 points every time. This happened to be an exceptionally off night for the Wildcats. But there was no doubt which team was better and more athletic, and that has happened far too often this season. Against Baylor, against Ohio State, against Washington, Northwestern gas shown that it is not on that elite level. Jared Sullinger and Terrence Ross are elite players who can take the ball in their hands Kobe Bryant-style and turn the game around. I’m not convinced John Shurna or Drew Crawford can do that.

The Wildcats were very fortunate to even be in the game at halftime. If Washington had been able to make even fifty percent of its open three-point attempts, then Northwestern’s ship would have been sunk. The Huskies did a terrific job of creating shot opportunities with rapid ball movement. The Wildcats needed to come out hot in the second half, trailing by seven. Instead, the three-pointer suddenly went away from Northwestern, and without the outside shot, the Wildcats were simply hapless. They had chances to drain open three-pointers, but Hearn couldn’t hit, Sobolewski couldn’t hit, and while Northwestern stumbled, Washington soared, literally.

You got the feeling that Northwestern had no business being on that court on Friday. Washington was simply a much better team on Friday night, far more athletic, far more talented and far more capable of executing at a far higher level. It was a sinking feeling in the back of my mind during the first half, and then the ship sunk in the second half. I knew it was over on a series of plays in which Tony Wroten blocked Jershon Cobb as he coasted into the hoop for a fastbreak layup. Wroten came out of nowhere, fully extending his body to swat away Cobb’s attempt. Then, on the other end, Wroten lobbed a pass up for Ross to slam home. Wroten let out a wide grin at that point, a grin as if he suddenly realized that this game was his, that this game, this moment belonged to the Huskies. Amazingly, Wroten, one of Washington’s premiere players, didn’t score in the second half, but he didn’t need to because Ross scored enough for the both of them. Ross went absolutely apeshit after the intermission, draining 9-of-11 for 17 points, and was unstoppable with his long frame fading away for jumpers and three-pointers. To make matters worse, Washington showed off another jewel that Northwestern would love to have, a solid bench player, as C.J. Wilcox drained four clutch three-pointers off of the bench.

Washington absolutely dominated the glass on Friday, by a margin of 45-26, which is, yes, even worse than usual for Northwestern. Twenty offensive rebonds undermined whatever defense the Wildcats could muster, and then they literally fell apart under pressure. The Wildcats never turn the ball over, literally almost never, averaging around six turnovers per game. Well, they turned it over 11 times in the first half on Friday night, and finished with more turnovers than assists, a true rarity for Northwestern basketball. Washington was able to get into Northwestern’s heads, particularly that of Dave Sobolewski, who could barely bring the ball up court at times.

The turnovers came at horrendous times too, ruining multiple runs. For example, Northwestern had clawed back from a nine-point deficit to draw within four points, when Jershon Cobb allowed the ball to glance off of his hands under the basket. The worst may have come a minute or two later when Davide Curletti tried to funnel the ball up court to a wide-open Drew Crawford, only to miss his intended target by several feet. Despite Crawford’s valiant attempt to save it along the sideline, the ball went out of bounds, ruining what looked like a sure opportunity for a fastbreak dunk. The look of exasperation on Crawford’s face told it all. If Curletti cannot pass, then what exactly is he good for? Curletti finished with one point, one rebound and two turnovers in 16 minutes of play, continuing a season in which the Wildcats have received absolutely nothing from their post players.

But worse than the invisibility cloak Curletti wraps around himself on offense is the sheer beating he takes in the post. We all knew Washington would control the glass entering the game, but the extent to which the Huskies dominated the glass made it nearly impossible for the Wildcats to win. The funny thing is that Washington was originally missing its second-chance opportunities, somehow scoring only eight second-chance points in the first half, but then they kept getting third chances and fourth chances. Eventually, the ball has to go in. The funny thing is Washington probably converted on only 40 percent of its putbacks and layups in the first half. The Huskies were eager, but they more than a wee bit sloppy, and the Wildcats failed to take advantage. So, Washington did in the second half.

I will say that I was worried about their guy in the middle, Aziz N’Diaye, ever since I saw highlights of the Huskies’ first-round victory. It’s not that he’s particularly good, but he is physical and he is big with a dangerously long wingspan. And that in itself is enough against Northwestern’s hideously weak interior defense. Sure enough, he streched out for several impressive rebounds, had a few putback layups, and helped create a nightmare in the post for the Wildcats.

It’s frustrating, because as a Northwestern fan, you’re tempted to always think that if only we picked up a couple of more offensive rebounds, if only we didn’t turn it over that one time, if only we got a bucket or two in the paint, this seven-point deficit would be a three-point lead. But that type of thinking is flawed. The Wildcats are far from where they need to be because so many aspects of their game are flawed. The turnovers are rare but the stale offensive possessions are not. They get hot and cold, none colder than when Drew Crawford apparently forgot that there is a 30-second shot clock in men’s college basketball. And tonight, it was clear that Northwestern is more than a bad break away from where it needs to be.

The problem for Northwestern is that as good as Shurna and Crawford are, they aren’t superheroes. Particularly Shurna, who is dynamite from three-point land, but inconsistent from inside the arc. When he drives, it’s a beautiful sight, but I could count on one hand the number of times he drove in the first half. That leaves Crawford, and now Cobb, as the only pure scorers on this team, and when they’re matched up against a team that also has elite scorers, like Washington, the Wildcats can’t just expect their duo to outscore every other duo in the country, particularly when opposing duos were often more highly recruited for a reason. You can’t expect John Shurna to completely out-class a guy like Terrence Ross, but that is what Northwestern needs with its big men completely clueless in the post. To offset their disadvantage down low, they’re forced to either light it up from three-point land or get some sort of astounding performance from Shurna, night in and night out, which is hard to do. The Wildcats were undoubtedly a slicker team in the first half Friday night. They were electric from three-point land in the first half, and while they made tough, contested shots, Washington missed wide-open shots, failing to even draw rim at times. But the problem is Northwestern was so obviously out-classed in every other area of the game, penetrating the post, grabbing rebounds and forcing bad shots on defense, that it never stood a chance.

Northwestern currently has issues at the top and the bottom in my opinion. Curletti is practically useless in the front court. Sobolewski, as talented and smart as he is, is not an elite scorer, and looked shaky in the back court. That’s all right. He’s a freshman and you have to expect that he will not allow himself to get trapped as often as he did against Washington the next time around. So, next year, you look forward to new blood in the post, with Curletti and Luka Mirkovic both gone. You have to figure that pretty much anything will be better than what they have now. Kyle Rowley, of current NCAA Tournament fame and torture, left this program a couple of years ago, and clearly the Curletti and Mirkovic experiment that has prevailed since has been an abysmal failure. Both would make fine backup centers for any team in the nation. Neither is a true starter. And they could really use a center to save dead possessions. Cobb does that to some extent, but at some point, there’s nothing like a guy, who you can just dump it to with five seconds remaining on the shot clock, and tell him, back your guy down, take a hook shot, and we’ll take those 50-50 odds that it falls.

Without these tools, this was a very humbling night. So ends a Northwestern season that included far more hype than necessary. The Wildcats were perennially talked about as a NCAA Tournament contender, as a charmed team of destiny, but this loss puts an end to that conversation. Heck, it’s not even this loss, it’s this entire 8-10 run through conference play, that included just one quality win, featured several tenuous wins over bad teams and ended in a crushing loss to Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. Sure, the Wildcats proved they could compete with just about anybody, but winning is a different story. Looking back on this season, it is quite clear that this was an average Big Ten team. They were frequently dominated by college basketball’s elite (at Ohio State, versus Baylor and at Washington). They fought hard against good teams like Michigan and Illinois. And at times, they beat up on cellar-dwellers like Nebraska, Penn State, Iowa and Minnesota. At other timers, they struggled against the bottom of the barrel, struggling to defeat cellar-dwellers like Iowa and Penn State on the road. It’s safe to say that Bill Carmody has done a lot in his time in Evanston. It is safe to say that Northwestern has climbed out of the Big Ten basement. Where it has climbed to is far less clear.

Woeful Wildcats Win With a Whimper

Northwestern 76 – Akron 74

In the warm, still air that enveloped Evanston on Tuesday night, one perturbed fan murmured to another that the referees didn’t exactly deserve a gold medal for their work during Northwestern’s opening-round NIT victory over Akron. For that matter, the Wildcats didn’t exactly deserve a gold medal either. The fact that they won by so little against a clearly outmatched Zips team was quite frankly an embarrassment. After dominating the first half, they gave the ball away far too many times (it seemed like a lot more than six turnovers to me), surrendered one too many offensive rebounds and faltered in the clutch yet again in an atrocious second half.

Let’s be clear. Akron should not have been in this game until the final buzzer. The Zips had a point guard that appeared visibly shorter than Michael “Juice” Thompson, and was laughably small when standing next to Zeke Marshall before the game. He was a carbon copy of the man who once led Northwestern’s attack, except that he doesn’t possess Thompson’s driving abilities or shooting abilities. Besides that, the Zips boasted some nice players; indeed, they were a very pleasant team overall, but they turned it over far too much and failed to intimidate in the least. Only Zeke Marshall seemed to be a real threat, and while I was impressed by the seven-footer’s dexterity, he didn’t seem to have a whole lot of moves beyond the simple flush. And yet, Northwestern nearly lost to this team. Somehow, someway.

At first, it appeared Northwestern was undergoing a magical transformation as the Wildcats rode an unusual surge in the clutch, powered by Jershon Cobb hitting a shot that only Jershon Cobb can hit, stopping short along the baseline, perching in his place, then leaning back as he took a shot that whistled right through the net. Then, on Northwestern’s next possession, Shurna saved a wasted trip, grabbing the rebound and hoisting his putback attempt right into the net. With Northwestern still struggling to maintain its lead, Shurna rattled home another three with less than two minutes remaining.

But with good vibrations finally coursing through the building, and the Wildcats finally poised to leave a nice aftertaste in their fans’ mouths, Northwestern came up classically short. A beautiful job by freshman point guard Dave Sobolewski of contesting the opponent’s three, a defensive job so pretty that he grazed his opponent’s hand on the follow through, was wasted, as Shurna fell over in the paint and lost the ball. Again, Akron failed to take advantage, clanking a three-pointer off of the front rim, but Sobolewski handed it right back, missing a free throw that would have practically sealed the game.

Instead, Akron had the ball, down just three, with the shot clock off. Bill Carmody made a smart choice to foul, to prevent a game-tying three, but after making the first free throw, Akron purposefully missed the second, and as has become custom in Evanston, Northwestern couldn’t secure the rebound. Instead, it bounced out of bounds off the Wildcats’ buttery fingers, giving the Zips one last chance. On their final three-point attempt, the Mini Me-sized Alex Abreu managed to deke his way around a defender or two, before hoisting a three that was right on line, but fortunately, bounced off of the rim. It would have been a game-winner. How Northwestern allowed Akron the opportunity to win the game bears plenty of further scrutiny. Again, the Wildcats appeared tragically incapable of putting a game away.

The fan base was no prettier than the team on Tuesday night, and no, that wasn’t yet another slight at Northwestern girls. Understandably deflated by recent events on the court and deterred by academic work off of the court, most Wildcats fans chose to simply stay home, which I understand, but that doesn’t make it right. Listen, I didn’t particularly want to come to Welsh-Ryan Arena either on Tuesday night. After watching nearly every Northwestern game this season, and enduring a lot more frustration than most, every bone in my body pleaded with me not to enter that arena. You could feel the misery hanging over the building, made more palpable by the half-full student section and the entirely empty upper rafters. That’s fine, I can understand why fans didn’t want to show up, but then, don’t be surprised when people laugh at Northwestern for putting on airs like a basketball school. And certainly don’t get mad at Stu Douglass when he dares to insult the crowd at Welsh-Ryan Arena.

As much as we might hate to admit it, he has a point. Just because we cram the gym three times a year doesn’t make this a great basketball school. Our stands are half-full far too often to start tooting our own horns, and unfortunately that was on display Tuesday night, as a ESPN2 television audience got to see the empty stands at Welsh-Ryan Arena. What Northwestern fans don’t seem to realize is these games sear the audience’s mind as much as a full crowd, perhaps more so, because people aren’t used to seeing so many empty seats at a college basketball game. And then when they presented the Home Court Challenge Award to the Northwestern Wildside, for helping hold opponents to the worst free-throw percentage present in any Big Ten stadium, a half-full student section was there to receive the award. It was pretty embarrassing if you think about it. We couldn’t even show up to pick up our own award. With all the misery and malaise hanging over Welsh-Ryan Arena, and the odor of failed dreams permeating everything that enters the space, Northwestern might do well to travel to The Evergreen State. Perhaps, an intense road crowd will spark a team that appeared lackadaisical and unfocused at times on Tuesday night. Perhaps, the Huskies will bring out the best in Northwestern.

It wasn’t all bad at Welsh-Ryan Arena. You had to admire the big three, of John Shurna, Drew Crawford and Jershon Cobb, who combined to score 35 of the Wildcats’ 37 first-half points. Crawford was probably the best of the Wildcats’ three-headed monster, a monster that could have tormented the Big Ten if Cobb had been healthy all season, while Shurna may have been the worst. Even though the senior notched 23 points and 11 rebounds, and broke a milestone and a record along the way, it was a surprisingly quiet effort. Although the Zips lacked anyone who could compete with Shurna’s size and versatility, Shurna was never able to take it to them. He was essentially confined to the perimeter, from which five of his eight made field-goals originated.

Still, it was an impressive performance by the trio. When Cobb chest-bumped Shurna going into a timeout, with Northwestern leading by a wide margin early, it was the happiest I had seen the Wildcats in a while, and the smile on Shurna’s face was hard not to bask in. It was a beautiful instance of present meeting future. With Shurna about to recede into the program’s past, with 2,000 career points and the school record for blocks, Cobb will have to replace his production. Why Cobb? Well, Cobb is the best player on the floor for Northwestern. His lanky build makes him a vital cog in the Wildcats’ 1-3-1 pressure defense, he forces turnovers, doesn’t back down from any defensive matchup, and his hard work, arching wingspan and athleticism also makes him a rare threat on the boards for Northwestern. He also is a rare type of scorer. His pull-up jumpers are a thing of beauty, allowing the Wildcats an easy out on dead possessions, and a shot that was shaky early in his career has suddenly turned silky smooth, both inside and outside of the arc. He will have to be the player that steps it up and averages 15 points a game next season. If Northwestern had him for the entirety of this season, I have no doubt it would have made the NCAA Tournament. Without Shurna next season, Northwestern’s only chance at making the Tournament will again rest on Cobb’s shoulders.

For now, the Wildcats’ potential trip to New York might also rest on Cobb’s shoulders. Reggie Hearn has faded away of late. He’s no longer finding those open three-pointers. His drives to the hoop have been less fruitful of late, and he finished with only four points on Tuesday night. His talent is, by now, undeniable, but it’s also worth noting that he hasn’t reached double-figures in five straight games. With Hearn hurting, this team will need Cobb to achieve what is more than a dream in my mind. To be clear, I will consider this season a complete and utter disappointment if it doesn’t end in the Big Apple. A run to the NIT Final Four would represent progress. A loss to Washington would represent another instance of coming up short in a big game, and another failed chance to seize the moment. Certainly, the Wildcats will have to play a lot better than they did tonight to beat the Huskies, but Northwestern fans can take solace in this. Last season, the Wildcats also laid an egg, against UW-Milwaukee, before trouncing top-ranked Boston College at the Silvio O. Conte Forum. This year presents an almost identical situation, as the Wildcats hope to follow an ugly home victory with an upset on the road. As odd as this sounds, those of us basketball fans in Evanston will be rooting for history to repeat itself, at least for now.

A Big Chip on Northwestern’s Shoulder

Northwestern got jipped. Let there be no doubt about it, the Wildcats were robbed. No, I’m not one of those crazies who still thinks that they should have made the NCAA Tournament. Admittedly, they were handed millions of chances to make it to March Madness and dropped the ball each and every time. Their inability to win a single, close game all year was laughable at best, and no, wins over Penn State and Iowa don’t count, considering the way Northwestern essentially did all it could to give both games away in the final minutes. Yes, I still think the fact that South Florida made it over Northwestern is an embarrassment, considering the Bulls’ inexplicable number of awful losses, including Auburn, Old Dominion and Penn State, but overall, I’m content to admit that we did not deserve a bid into March Madness.

But a No. 4 seed in the NIT? You have to be kidding me. You’re telling me that Northwestern is on a similar level as its first-round opponent, No. 5 seed Akron? You’re telling me that Stanford, with its 10-8 record in the susceptible Pac-12, is better than Northwestern? This is a team that notched its best wins against Oregon and California teams that barely eked their way into the tournament. This No. 4 seed is a joke, a clear indication that the NIT selection committee doesn’t respect the Big Ten, arguably the top conference in college basketball. It’s a clear indication that the committee didn’t watch close losses to Ohio State or Michigan, or better yet, didn’t care. How is it that a Northwestern team that was considered one of the first several teams out of the NCAA Tournament, that was still picked by Jerry Palm as making it to March Madness, that was long considered a No. 1 seed in the NIT somehow fell to a No. 4 seed in the NIT? You’re telling me that a loss to an inspired Minnesota team that was clearly playing its best basketball of the season and nearly downed Michigan in overtime a day later despite its exhaustion, dropped the Wildcats this far. That’s ridiculous. Northwestern should have had multiple home games in store. Now, they face the frightening prospect of traveling to Washington for a second-round match, and having a second straight season end in the Evergreen State. Let it be known that I called bullshit before the NIT even began.

In hockey, overtime losses are rewarded by a single point. Clearly, close losses are not rewarded by the NCAA Tournament and NIT selection committees. While they might have been the least clutch team in the United States of America, the Wildcats showed that they could compete with nearly every single team in the country. They held Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana close, gave Creighton a scare on the road and famously downed Michigan State at home. Few were the times in which Northwestern looked completely outmatched. This is a Wildcats team that could clearly light up your television set every night, if not the victory column. Yet, clearly a cynical committee decided that their 8-10 record in the best basketball conference in the country was not all that impressive. When you think about it, Northwestern beat very few good teams, mainly downing the chaff of the Big Ten, while falling to the wheat. But you would think the Wildcats would get more credit for the way they played in their non-conference schedule, the way they downed Louisiana State and Seton Hall in the Charleston Classic, the ease with which they defeated Nebraska, their road win over a talented Illinois team and their win over Michigan State.

Akron at Northwestern, NIT First Round, 8:00 p.m. ESPN2

But here we are, with an opening contest against Akron at Welsh-Ryan Arena. If Northwestern loses, it will have the interesting and unusual distinction of having both its soccer and basketball seasons end at the hands (and feet) of the Zips. But hopefully, Northwestern asserts itself as playing on a different level, a few stories up on the old glass elevator, than Akron. This is an Akron team that lost five of its first eight, while Northwestern was playing well against a high level of competition in its non-conference schedule. This is a Zips team that lost by 24 to Middle Tennessee State and by five to Duquesne. Their biggest win likely came against Detroit. Give them credit, they did well in conference play, gave several good teams a fight and came back well from an awful start to the season, but I want Northwestern to win this game very, very badly. The Wildcats ought to play this game with a chip on their shoulder.

The main obstacle standing in their way, of course, will be seven-foot center Zeke Marshall, who is Akron’s leading scorer with 10.2 points per game. He also averages 5.3 rebounds per game and 2.8 blocks per game. This is obviously the last thing Northwestern needed, a tall guy that can expose the Wildcats’ weakness down low, literally stepping on their Achilles heel for 40 minutes of action at Welsh-Ryan Arena, and completely disproving all that I said about Northwestern playing at a higher level. This is an Akron team that also plays good defense, although they’ve likely seen few attacks like that which Northwestern boasts. They’ve likely seen few players of John Shurna and Drew Crawford’s ilk as well. But the Zips are solid, boast a couple of guys who hit 44 percent or more of their shots from three-point land, burying into another Northwestern weakness, and tend to hold their own on the boards. They are certainly capable of the upset, but for once, I hope that the Wildcats do what they’ve done all season. No, i don’t mean collapse in the clutch. I mean easily dispatch of an inferior team, and show that we belonged on a higher plane. There’s a big chip on my shoulder. I hope I can say the same of my team.

NOTES

Knowing how much help the Buffalo Bills need, I would say stay away from trying to lure targets like Peyton Manning, and focus on upgrading the wide receiving corps (Pierre Garcon is just 25 years old) since Stevie Johnson is a shaky No. 1 wide receiver. Also, an upgrade in the secondary (tough-minded Cortland Finnegan would add personality to the defense, and help with the run game as well as the Bills’ pass defense) would be nice … Meanwhile, heading back to Evanston for a moment, let’s play a fun game over the next couple of days and try to rank and compare the Northwestern basketball teams from the past four years. Since the Wildcats have made the NIT in four consecutive seasons, let’s figure out which NIT teams were the best, and which were the worst. Did you prefer Jeremy Nash as the defensive, athletic component of the Wildcats’ roster or Jershon Cobb? Would you rather have Michael “Juice” Thompson running the show or Dave Sobolewski? Did you like John Shurna as Kevin Coble’s sniper sidekick or did you like Shurna better as the team’s No. 1 option? I’ll start examining these questions later in the week, but feel free to start commenting now.

Firings Aside, Plenty of Job Security in the Big Ten

Well, we’re coming off a rough day in the Big Ten, as Illinois’ Bruce Weber and Nebraska’s Doc Sadler were put on the chopping block after disappointing seasons.

I can understand why Weber was fired. After nine seasons, the Fighting Illini seemed to have backward momentum, and were underachieving to an extreme degree. How a team with a NBA-caliber point guard in Brandon Paul, an elite big man in Meyers Leonard and a useful glue guy in Joseph Bertrand could lose that many games is a mystery to me. This might be the most disappointing team in the Big Ten, and their hasty Big Ten Tournament exit against Iowa certainly didn’t help matters. That being said, this is an unfortunate firing in the sense that Weber had grown really close to top recruit Jabari Parker. His firing could jeopardize Illinois’ chances at landing him. Indeed, his family said as much, which is a shame considering that Parker is the No. 1 ranked small forward in the class of 2013, and is easily the most talented of five Chicago natives that Weber was targeting. As crazy as it sounds, I have to wonder if Weber could be bound for Evanston. While I believe Carmody should remain Northwestern’s coach, if he is fired, Weber could be an intriguing fit. He has shown a knack for recruiting in the city of Chicago, and you can just imagine the fuss is Weber somehow brought Parker to Evanston. I literally would think I was in Heaven already.

Meanwhile, I really don’t understand Doc Sadler’s firing. Listen, there’s no doubt Nebraska struggled this year, but don’t forget that this was the Cornhuskers’ first year in the Big Ten, and the jump from the Big XII to the Big Ten is not an easy one to make, whether it’s the jump in skill level or simply game-planning for 11 new conference foes. And then you take into consideration that Nebraska puts such minimal money into its basketball program, the lowest such figure in the Big Ten as one fan pointed out in a full-page newspaper advertisement, and it’s no wonder this team struggled. I mean this team’s only real star was Bo Spencer, and I hesitate to call him even that. Sadler should have been given another chance.

As for the hot stove rankings, with 10 coaches left, I give you my spin on who’s safe and who’s in hot water:

Untouchables

Bo Ryan, Wisconsin – Unbelievable, Jon Leuer departs for the NBA, and the Badgers come back as good as ever. Their defense remains one of the best in the Big Ten, and with Sam Dekker coming in, fans in Madison have plenty to be excited about.

Tom Izzo, Michigan State – Obviously, the Big Ten Coach of the Year doesn’t have much to worry about in terms of job security, but the job he did this season deserves further praise. This Spartans team lacks stars with the exception of Draymond Green, but Izzo once again fit all of the pieces together into something beautiful.

Thad Matta, Ohio State – Is it a little disappointing that the Buckeyes have had so little success in the NCAA Tournament? Yes, but that doesn’t take away from Matta’s immense skills as a recruiter. It will be very fun watching a talented Class of 2011, featuring four four-star recruits, contribute on the court.

Hero Mode

Matt Painter, Purdue – One of the most underrated coaches in the Big Ten, Painter eked every bit of possible effort out of this Boilermakers team, coaxing a limited team (Hummel and who else?) to a late-season run. Yes, despite the losses of E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, Purdue is still destined for the NCAA Tournament. And now he has the 16th-ranked freshman class coming in, a shockingly good haul considering West Lafayette’s limits as a basketball town.

Fran McCaffery, Iowa – His Hawkeyes team was feisty in 2011, finishing close to .500 in Big Ten play, and pulling off a nice victory over the Fighting Illini in the Big Ten Tournament. His team seemed to overachieve, riding several role players to surprising victories. The Hawkeyes’ 24th-ranked incoming freshman class doesn’t hurt either. He definitely has this program heading in the right direction.

Tom Crean, Indiana – He brought in Cody Zeller and he has Yogi Ferrell coming in next year. He has a recruiting lock on the state of Indiana, and is reaping heavy rewards from the rich soil of the Hoosier State. He has made Hoosiers basketball relevant again, and their NCAA Tournament berth alone should keep fans in Bloomington happy for a while.

John Bellein, Michigan – The Wolverines tend to do well in the fundamental aspects of the game under Bellein, and have become a perennial top contender in the Big Ten. Add in the freshman of the year, and the 11th-ranked incoming recruiting class, and you get the feeling that Bellein will be in Ann Arbor for a long time to come.

Dicey Mode

Tubby Smith, Minnesota – The Golden Gophers put forth a really chippy effort in the Big Ten Tournament, and it’s unlikely Tubby Smith will get fired after a season that was compromised by Trevor Mbakwe’s season-ending injury. Still, Minnesota hasn’t gone anywhere in a while, and there’s no doubt things haven’t turned out as planned in Minneapolis.

Bill Carmody, Northwestern – A strong run in the NIT would help make his case for steady progress within the program, but even without a few NIT wins, he should be fine for a little while longer. Athletic director Jim Phillips tends to be quite patient with coaches, and from a historical perspective, Carmody is doing things that have never been done in Evanston. Now, if only he could recruit post players.

Too Early to Judge

Patrick Chambers, Penn State – He had one year and it didn’t go very well. But he deserves time to try to build his own program. Brandon Austin, the No. 13 small forward in the Class of 2013, is looking like a big recruit, and if he can tap into the Philadelphia metropolitan area, that could be a huge break. That being said, he needs to learn not to chase referees across the court. Murder usually doesn’t look good on a resume.

In Other News

Meanwhile, someone in the Redskins’ front office made a decision that ought to get him or her fired, trading away three first-round picks and one second-round pick for the No. 2 selection in the 2012 NFL Draft, or in other words, the right to select Robert Griffin III. Listen, I know that we were all awed and charmed by Griffin’s press conference at the Combine, and I know that he will sell a lot of tickets at FedEx Field, but is it really worth it?

No doubt Robert Griffin III is good. He’s been tossing touchdowns in the pass-happy Big XII for a long time, and with his mobility, he’s the type of quarterback that doesn’t need a strong offensive line to make him look good, which is a happy coincidence given that most of the teams that own top draft picks lack strong offensive lines. It’s how they got there in the first place. So, Griffin III can step in right away into a bad situation and win some ballgames. But, at the same time, Griffin’s 2011 numbers were a little bit out of nowhere, he did play in an unorthodox offensive system and it sometimes seems like any quarterback can toss 30 touchdown passes in the aerial launching ground that is the Big XII. Could he put those type of numbers up in the Big Ten, or more importantly, in the NFL? I’m not so sure.

Perhaps the thinking is that he has the mobility of a John Elway, who Mike Shanahan did well with in Denver, but still as good as Griffin III is, three first-round picks? When you consider that every first-round pick has the potential to be a franchise-changer, that’s a lot to give away. St. Louis could completely remake its defense with those three picks. This year, the Rams will have the No. 6, No. 33 and No. 39 picks, and then they should have two first-round picks in each of the next two drafts. I’m practically salivating thinking of what St. Louis could do with its three picks in the first two rounds of this year’s draft. The Rams could pick up Matt Kalil or David DeCastro to shore up their offensive line, then pick up Alshon Jeffery to give Sam Bradford someone to throw to and finally pick up Jerel Worthy to stuff the run.

Whether or not that’s the best approach, I have no idea, but the point is they can now address multiple weaknesses through the 2012 NFL Draft. The way I just outlined would help fix the line, receiving corps and run defense in one fell swoop. It’s the greatest new mind game for NFL fans to play in their free time: how the Rams should spend their first three picks, and it’s all courtesy of the Redskins. This isn’t just a vote of confidence in Sam Bradford by St. Louis, it’s also quite simply a very smart move. Meanwhile, I can’t really blame Washington. When you consider how long the Redskins have gone without an elite quarterback, you can see why they made this desperate move.

The End of a Dream: Minnesota Downs Northwestern

Let there be no doubt, Northwestern is the least clutch team in college basketball. We saw it throughout the regular season as the Wildcats lost five tight games. We saw it on the road as they were barely able to hang onto leads over the Nittany Lions and the Hawkeyes. And now we saw it in the Big Ten Tournament, as they had a chance to seize the game over the Golden Gophers, and failed miserably.

Don’t forget. They were up by four with the ball with just minutes remaining in regulation. And they could do nothing with it. A team that never turns the ball over turned it over multiple times in the final minutes. They couldn’t create any offense, and on their finest play, when Jershon Cobb spun his way into the post, the ball hung on the rim for an eternity, and then fell off of it. With the score tied, they played beautiful defense to force a missed shot, but then in transition, with seconds remaining, Dave Sobolewski rushed his shot, and hit rim on his final shot of regulation. And so we went to overtime.

The Wildcats have played miserably thus far in overtime, and Thursday was no different. They didn’t hit a field goal for nine minutes of play. They fumbled numerous passes, surrendered open three-pointers and did nothing right to win the game. John Shurna rarely saw the ball in overtime. Jershon Cobb fumbled the ball, down three, along the sideline, and that turned the game around.

It’s funny, because it looked like they had the game in their hands. When Cobb made a beautiful pull-up jump shot with minutes remaining to give Northwestern the lead, I thought it was over. But they couldn’t hold onto that lead. They couldn’t hold onto any lead. And ultimately that offense, which has been start and stutter all season, did the exact same thing on Thursday. They were electric to come back from an early 15-5 deficit and then they disappeared. They hit free throws all game until overtime and then the free throws started clanking off of the rim. They hit threes all game, with Hearn, Shurna and Cobb lighting it up from behind the arc early, and then the threes disappeared. Shurna started second-guessing himself, electing not to shoot it, and trying to drive. Crawford up four, tried driving, and had the ball seized from him. That was when Minnesota’s rally began.

Northwestern’s offense died late. Why the Wildcats didn’t drive aggressively toward the end, I’m not sure. They had the benefit of a double bonus. They could have taken it to the Golden Gophers. They didn’t. And then on the boards, they continued to get pummeled. And the defense, even Bill Carmody had to abandon his prized 1-3-1 toward the end, as it became increasingly clear that Northwestern couldn’t contest shots from behind the arc. So, they went to man, but perhaps unprepared in the man-to-man defense, unaccustomed to using it, Jershon Cobb flat out got beaten off the dribble by Andre Hollins in extra time. That was a game-changing play. That’s when the extra time changed from a one-possession game to a two-possession game. And it was as easy as running past Cobb, and hanging in the air for a floater.

Don’t worry, Wildcats fans, Cobb is a special player, and even in the extra time, he’s the only one who showed any semblance of life. His pull-up jumper came close, his spinning swoop to the hoop came painfully close, but two mistakes killed him. The bad defense and the fumble along the sideline. It killed the Wildcats. But it obviously cannot be blamed on him. The problem is the guys like Reggie Hearn, who drained threes early Thursday and drove to the hoop beautifully all season, and John Shurna, who drove beautifully for four years in Evanston, did nothing in the final minutes. They stood around. And Minnesota played much better defense.

Let’s face it. This team does not deserve to make the NCAA Tournament. I do not want them to make the tournament. I will not be outraged if the Wildcats do make the tournament. I have no doubt that they are among the top 68 teams in the country. But they do not deserve it. They didn’t seize the moment. They had decades worth of failure on their shoulders and it looked like it in the final minutes. And now the failure continues for at least one more year.

Northwestern-Minnesota Halftime Report

Quick notes about Northwestern-Minnesota:

• The Wildcats have got to stop digging themselves such incredibly deep holes. They fell behind 15-5 early in Thursday’s game, and while that might work against the Golden Gophers, it’s less easy to come back against the Wolverines. Give them credit though. They fight back and they fight back quick, scoring 20 of the game’s next 26 points or something like that.
• JerShon Cobb looked incredible in the first half. From a statistical standpoint, he was obviously brilliant, notching a season-high 14 points, and draining all five of his field-goal attempts, but his defense was just as impressive, as he used his long arching body to make pretty much every Minnesota pass difficult. He also had the highlight of the game, grabbing a rare offensive rebound with a spectacular jump, and immediately banking it in as he hung up there in the air.
• With Cobb at the forefront, Northwestern forced seven turnovers, while only giving it away twice.
• The Wildcats were horrendous on the boards, getting out-rebounded 20-10. As active as their defense was, there were far too many second chances in the first half. And they have got to stop leaving guys like Julian Welch and Andre Hollins wide open. Identify the shooter and cover him. It’s as simple as that.
• Also Alex Marcotullio has to control himself. Unless we want Cobb playing all 40 minutes, which perhaps we do at this point, Marcotullio will have to learn to control his hands. His first foul was idiotic as he charged into a Golden Gophers player who had better position on the boards. His second foul was dumb as well, and the collection of fouls really ties Bill Carmody’s hands.

Northwestern, North Carolina and the Beginnings of March Madness

After all of the bad breaks Northwestern has received over the years, it was nice to see the Wildcats catch a break or two against the Hawkeyes at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Just thinking back on those final couple of minutes, Northwestern didn’t exactly look confident in closing out the game Saturday, but somehow it got the job done. Two free throws by Alex Marcotullio, who I wanted shooting the free throws since he has ice water in his veins, barely rattled in. Meanwhile, Iowa missed a solid shot at a three-pointer in the closing seconds that would have won it. Now, everyone keeps saying that the Hawkeyes missed a wide-open three-pointer. I’m less convinced of that. The Wildcats did a nice job of closing out, and blocking the sight line of the Hawkeyes’ shooter, but no doubt about it, it was a great opportunity for Iowa, and a shot that has seemed to fall every other time in Northwestern history, finally hit rim, and so the Wildcats caught a break. So, Northwestern won the game and now remains firmly enmeshed in the bubble conversation. Just to hear our university talked about it in that way carries its own kind of thrill, and for once, having more than a dream to play for in Indianapolis is refreshing. And if we do ultimately land in the NIT, three home games likely await us. But since Marcotullio’s shots did ultimately roll into the basket, let’s dare to dream for a while, and enjoy a few more weeks of March Madness. Let’s bask in the feeling of Madness in Evanston. God knows when we will get this feeling again.

I was impressed with the fury with which the Wildcats played on Saturday. Their defense was awfully stingy, forcing 18 turnovers, and those turnovers allowed them to overcome an enormous early deficit. On the offensive end, however, it seemed as if Northwestern was almost playing with too much energy early on, as the Wildcats were doing a beautiful job of driving to the hoop, only to mangle passes and overpower easy shots. It was as if the blood was pumping a little too rapidly. But give them credit. After falling behind by 15, they didn’t just stem the tide, they turned the tide around completely. Facing a fired-up Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the Wildcats went on a 27-5 run to end the half, relying on their defensive ferocity and ability to run the court to generate quick points.

Giving Gatens Due Credit

Give a lot of credit to Matt Gatens, who went 6-for-12 on his Senior Night, going 38 minutes without a single turnover. He has only turned it over three times or more four times this season, and has always been a solid player, if not a great one. And when he hit that three from several feet behind the arc on Saturday, to draw Iowa within a basket or two, I seriously thought Northwestern might be screwed. Gatens was a scary player in his day, and he’ll need to be scary in the Big Ten Tournament to give Iowa a shot at the NIT. Currently, Iowa is said to be on the NIT bubble, but is not projected to make it in. Why Minnesota is projected to get into the NIT over Iowa remains unclear to me, especially when the Hawkeyes posted a far better record in Big Ten play.

Wildcats’ Season In Review

At 8-10 in conference, the Wildcats were actually right where I was hoping they would end up at the beginning of the season. Well, OK, so maybe I had slightly more ambitious dreams, but they definitely did some things right this season. In past years, Northwestern has struggled to win the easy games, and this year, they took care of business with a ruthless nature at times. They won the Charleston Classic, kicked Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa off the court at Welsh-Ryan Arena, and showed that not every Wildcats game needs to come down to the final buzzer. But they lost zillions of close games, and with Shurna missing that final free-throw against Iowa, and a shaky performance toward the end at Penn State, the Wildcats still lack clutch credentials. For that matter, they still somewhat lack credentials for the NCAA Tournament. On the face of it, they deserve to make the tournament. I think there’s little doubt that Northwestern is one of the top 68 teams in the nation, but that’s not how the tournament works, and the fact is that Northwestern was unable to capitalize on any of its million chances to pick up a third signature victory. Beating Michigan State was impressive. Beating Illinois on the road, at a place Northwestern rarely wins, was impressive. Coming back from a sharp deficit at Carver-Hawkeye Arena was impressive. As was winning the Charleston Classic. But will voters still be smarting over the bad taste of a season gone wrong, of opportunities spoiled and chances given away? Or will they recognize that Northwestern was close in every single one of its losses toward the end of the season, was rarely outclassed and almost always makes for good television? There’s two different ways to approach the issue, and how one chooses to interpret Northwestern’s many close losses will go a long way in deciding whether it makes the tournament or not.

Bubble Boys Take to Indianapolis

I’m definitely pleased with Northwestern’s draw in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wildcats get to take on a Golden Gophers team that they looked dominant against the last time they met up in Evanston, and the last time they met up in Indianapolis. Thankfully, their Big Ten Tournament meeting will take place far away from the Barn, where Minnesota has pummeled Northwestern year after year. The Golden Gophers have lots of talented role players, and a should-be star in Rodney Williams, but they have no one that can take over a game the way Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard can. Ralph Sampson III is fairly flimsy inside, which works well with Northwestern’s interior players, who are all extremely flimsy. I could actually see Shurna, who has a surprising number of blocks in the post, match up effectively against Sampson III, tormenting him with his speed, creativity and power. The only issue is that Sampson III, like Leonard, does block a lot of shots, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him swat away several of Dave Sobolewski’s drives to the net, which would be unfortunate since driving to the hoop is a key part of Northwestern’s game.

If they beat the Golden Gophers, they would move on to face a Wolverines team that they have played close twice before, a Michigan team that lacks a dominant inside force. What scares me most about a potential match with Michigan is that the Wolverines chuck up far more three-pointers than any other team in the Big Ten, and the Wildcats have a fascinating inability to contest top three-point shooters. Northwestern may want to consider abandoning the 1-3-1 zone during parts of a potential match against Michigan. If this game is to reach overtime, like their previous two games against Michigan, then the Wildcats will be boosted by the presence of JerShon Cobb, who has been a critical cog in recent weeks. His defensive energy has been most impressive, as has his ability to rebound the ball, and he is slowly emerging as a scorer as well. He went 6-for-11 against Iowa with three assists, and many of his mid-range jumpers and floaters came in the midst of Northwestern’s season-defining rally at Iowa City. As one of the few Wildcats who can create his own shots, shoot deep, or drive aggressively, Cobb could be invaluable, and his three-point form has slowly come back to respectability. I was very happy to see his picture as one of the leading pictures on the Wildcats’ website. While he might not score like Shurna and Crawford, he deserves a lot of the credit for the way that they have been playing lately.

To address some of the furor surrounding Northwestern, many appear irate at the thought of a team that finished with a sub-.500 record in conference play making the NCAA Tournament. That’s a legitimate opinion. But don’t forget that Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois and Penn State all made it with 9-9 Big Ten records last season, and similar overall records, and furthermore, they all earned fairly high seeds. Michigan was a No. 8 seed, Illinois was a No. 9 seed, and Michigan State and Penn State were both No. 10 seeds. So it’s not that ridiculous to think that Northwestern, with a conference record of just one game below .500, might earn a No. 16 seed, or at least a chance to play-in to the tournament. Add in their really strong performance in non-conference play, and the fact that they essentially have no bad losses, and you have a case for the NCAA Tournament. That being said, I do agree that the Wildcats need a win in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament to really give themselves a chance on Selection Sunday.

Notes About Purdue-Indiana

I can’t help but make a quick comment about Tom Pritchard. He is adorable if not all that talented. He’s the classic Big Ten athlete that you have to respect just because he goes out and competes the right way. In the several minutes I watched, he made two great plays, diving on the floor for a loose ball and hitting a hook shot. Both were nice hustle plays. On the hook shot, it was a clumsy play. He probably should have had the dunk off of a beautiful entry pass, but by the time he collected himself, two defenders were in his face, so he had to work hard, shuffle his feet, and use a crafty little hook to pick up the bucket. His limited athleticism also showed when he missed a dunk and ran straight into a pick within seconds of each other. But again, you have to give him credit for his effort.

Also, let’s give some credit to the fan at Assembly Hall who held a sign with an arrow pointing up to the rafters. It read: “Purdue, here are what banners look like.” Or something like that. Anyway, it was brilliant Hoosier State trash talk, and essentially the ultimate version of the “scoreboard” taunt, except that, instead of referring to a single game, it’s referring to an entire program’s history. Also, a lot of credit to the way this rivalry has run, as we saw both Pritchard and D.J. Byrd of Purdue hit the deck for loose balls. The effort is great, even if Indiana was decidedly in control this season. Purdue did make a late run. After falling behind by 13, the Boilermakers hit a couple of mid-range jumpers and floaters, forced an inbound steal, and a Byrd three-pointer cut the Hoosiers’ lead to six with more than a minute remaining. Unfortunately, Hummel, apparently unaware that he had four personal fouls, picked up his fifth, and from that point on, it was pretty clear who would win the game.

Notes About North Carolina-Duke

The latest installment in the Tobacco Road rivalry was a little bit of a dud, with North Carolina finally showcasing its superior talent. In particular, John Henson was that superior talent, hitting mid-range jumpers with astonishing frequency to complement what is already a potent post game. Tyler Zeller continued an incredible run, with his 9-of-11 performance, finishing with 19 points and 10 rebounds. His ability to tip shots in and finish off entry passes has always been impressive. And of course no one dishes it like Kendall Marshall, who had 10 of his team’s 13 assists. I was impressed with Mason Plumlee. He had 17 points on 7-of-13 shooting in the losing effort, and his assortment of power moves, gritty play and hook shots were something to behold.

But the fact is that North Carolina will always be a better post team, out-rebounding Duke 42-22 on Saturday night, and when the threes aren’t falling for the Blue Devils (6-of-21 on Saturday), they stand little chance of winning. That’s why I can’t take Duke seriously as a title contender. The Blue Devils will always be a top notch team, but can they remain hot for an entire NCAA Tournament run? I will say Duke can start its resurgence with a more aggressive Austin Rivers. Approximately half of his shots were from three-point range, but he is such a good driver, and that could add to his game tremendously. Two interesting notes: North Carolina had only one block and Duke turned it over just six times (with four of those turnovers coming from Rivers). The Tar Heels’ tendency to take off large swaths of time, with hasty threes and turnovers, nearly came back to bite them against the Blue Devils, and could haunt them again in the future.

One more cool note concerning North Carolina. Upon checking the brackets, it appears that the Tar Heels could be in for a meeting with the Hoosiers somewhere down the line, which would mean an intriguing contest of older brother versus younger brother. This would be the one time they ever got the chance to face off, with Tyler Zeller about to depart Chapel Hill, and it would be a rare chance to see brothers go up one-on-one, even if North Carolina would win the overall match handily.

Coming Up Next: Either Tuesday or Wednesday, I will preview the entire Big Ten Tournament for you. Do not miss it. It should be a whole lot of fun.

At Last, A True Must-Win For Northwestern

In one of the biggest games in Northwestern history, the Wildcats take on the Hawkeyes today at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Everyone has been way too liberal with their use of the must-win label thus far this season, but for once, the tag fits perfectly.

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS at IOWA HAWKEYES

Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Saturday, March 3, 2012, 1:30 p.m. Central

If the Wildcats lose, they will fall to 6-10 in the Big Ten, meaning only a Big Ten Tournament title would save their season. If they win, they pass the Hawkeyes in the conference standings, they would likely play Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament instead of Illinois and a win in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament would likely be enough to get them into the NCAA Tournament. And to be clear, I would much rather see Northwestern play Minnesota, since Meyers Leonard is far better down low than Ralph Sampson III is, and since Brandon Paul scares me with his explosive NBA-level talent. Minnesota doesn’t have anyone like that. With such big stakes riding on today’s game, I figured I would give you a quick, little preview to get you up to speed on the Iowa Hawkeyes.

NCAA Implications – Iowa actually has a better conference record than Northwestern as it stands, but the Hawkeyes have so many bad losses, both in conference (Penn State and Nebraska) and out of conference (a 20-point loss to Northern Iowa and a 16-point loss to Campbell), that they would be hard-pressed to earn a berth into the NCAA Tournament. They need to win a few more games to even stand a chance. While Iowa went 7-5 in non-conference play against a generally non-challenging slate, Northwestern took on Baylor, beat Seton Hall and LSU and finished with a 10-2 non-conference record, which looks far more impressive. Right now, the Wildcats ought to be thanking their lucky stars that they won the Charleston Classic. That early-season tournament could go a long way toward deciding their fate.

Up and Down Play – Most fans would consider this an up and down season for the Wildcats, but if you think about it Northwestern generally won the games it was expected to win and lost the games it was expected to lose. The Wildcats essentially have no bad losses at this point in the season, which should appeal to voters when it comes time to make the NCAA Tournament bracket. Their worst losses were a road loss to the Golden Gophers and a home loss to the Fighting Illini, and they got lucky in that the Boilermakers went on a strong run to end the season. Now, Northwestern’s two losses to Purdue don’t look so bad, since the Boilermakers are a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. If you want to look at an up and down team, just take a look at Iowa, which beat Wisconsin and Michigan, only to fall to Campbell and Penn State.

New Coat of Paint – Iowa is one of the few teams in the Big Ten that will be hard-pressed to challenge Northwestern in the paint. If Davide Curletti can’t hold down the fort against Zach McCabe, I hear there are a few villas in Italy that are still for sale. McCabe has made just six of his last 17 from the field and hasn’t reached double-digits since February 4. Melsahn Basabe is a good athlete, but can usually be contained, and both McCabe and Basabe are only six-feet, seven-inches tall. Iowa lacks a marquee center, and Northwestern couldn’t ask for a nicer gift.

Foot in my Mouth – Last time, these two teams played, I made the brilliant assessment that Matt Gatens isn’t a legitimate star within the Big Ten. Then, he put up 15 points at Welsh-Ryan Arena, draining three-of-five from behind the arc, and only turning the ball over once. Since then, Gatens has been on fire. He is only averaging 15.7 points on the season, but he has posted at least 16 points in each of his last five games, including a 33-point performance against Wisconsin and a 30-point performance against Indiana. He made 7-of-10 from behind the arc in both games, and considering Northwestern’s inability to defend the arc, Gatens could pose a serious threat. I still don’t think he’s on the level of a Jordan Taylor or John Shurna, but he can light it up, particularly against the Wildcats’ porous 1-3-1 defense. And one last thing, like many of Northwestern’s players, Gatens never comes out. He has played 40 minutes in three of Iowa’s last five games, and hasn’t reached four personal fouls since December 9, so good luck trying to get him into foul trouble.

Home Sweet Home – Never known as one of the more intimidating venues in the Big Ten, Carver-Hawkeye Arena has been witness to four consecutive Iowa wins, including victories over Wisconsin and Indiana.

Last Time Out – Last time out, Northwestern made it look easy, downing Iowa 83-64 at Welsh-Ryan Arena. In the battle of teams with hyphenated arena names, the Wildcats rode a dominating 56 percent performance from the field, and 13-of-25 performance from behind the arc, to victory. Dave Sobolewski was majestic that game, driving to the hole with authority, and finishing with 23 points, and really the entire Northwestern squad played a beautifully aggressive game and finished around the basket like I’ve never seen the Wildcats do before. They were playing out of their minds that night, and I wouldn’t necessarily expect to see that type of show again. Northwestern may win, if it can keep Gatens guarded behind the arc, but it will not be easy against an Iowa team chock full of productive role players, including Aaron White and Roy Devyn Marble.