Northwestern, North Carolina and the Beginnings of March Madness

After all of the bad breaks Northwestern has received over the years, it was nice to see the Wildcats catch a break or two against the Hawkeyes at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Just thinking back on those final couple of minutes, Northwestern didn’t exactly look confident in closing out the game Saturday, but somehow it got the job done. Two free throws by Alex Marcotullio, who I wanted shooting the free throws since he has ice water in his veins, barely rattled in. Meanwhile, Iowa missed a solid shot at a three-pointer in the closing seconds that would have won it. Now, everyone keeps saying that the Hawkeyes missed a wide-open three-pointer. I’m less convinced of that. The Wildcats did a nice job of closing out, and blocking the sight line of the Hawkeyes’ shooter, but no doubt about it, it was a great opportunity for Iowa, and a shot that has seemed to fall every other time in Northwestern history, finally hit rim, and so the Wildcats caught a break. So, Northwestern won the game and now remains firmly enmeshed in the bubble conversation. Just to hear our university talked about it in that way carries its own kind of thrill, and for once, having more than a dream to play for in Indianapolis is refreshing. And if we do ultimately land in the NIT, three home games likely await us. But since Marcotullio’s shots did ultimately roll into the basket, let’s dare to dream for a while, and enjoy a few more weeks of March Madness. Let’s bask in the feeling of Madness in Evanston. God knows when we will get this feeling again.

I was impressed with the fury with which the Wildcats played on Saturday. Their defense was awfully stingy, forcing 18 turnovers, and those turnovers allowed them to overcome an enormous early deficit. On the offensive end, however, it seemed as if Northwestern was almost playing with too much energy early on, as the Wildcats were doing a beautiful job of driving to the hoop, only to mangle passes and overpower easy shots. It was as if the blood was pumping a little too rapidly. But give them credit. After falling behind by 15, they didn’t just stem the tide, they turned the tide around completely. Facing a fired-up Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the Wildcats went on a 27-5 run to end the half, relying on their defensive ferocity and ability to run the court to generate quick points.

Giving Gatens Due Credit

Give a lot of credit to Matt Gatens, who went 6-for-12 on his Senior Night, going 38 minutes without a single turnover. He has only turned it over three times or more four times this season, and has always been a solid player, if not a great one. And when he hit that three from several feet behind the arc on Saturday, to draw Iowa within a basket or two, I seriously thought Northwestern might be screwed. Gatens was a scary player in his day, and he’ll need to be scary in the Big Ten Tournament to give Iowa a shot at the NIT. Currently, Iowa is said to be on the NIT bubble, but is not projected to make it in. Why Minnesota is projected to get into the NIT over Iowa remains unclear to me, especially when the Hawkeyes posted a far better record in Big Ten play.

Wildcats’ Season In Review

At 8-10 in conference, the Wildcats were actually right where I was hoping they would end up at the beginning of the season. Well, OK, so maybe I had slightly more ambitious dreams, but they definitely did some things right this season. In past years, Northwestern has struggled to win the easy games, and this year, they took care of business with a ruthless nature at times. They won the Charleston Classic, kicked Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa off the court at Welsh-Ryan Arena, and showed that not every Wildcats game needs to come down to the final buzzer. But they lost zillions of close games, and with Shurna missing that final free-throw against Iowa, and a shaky performance toward the end at Penn State, the Wildcats still lack clutch credentials. For that matter, they still somewhat lack credentials for the NCAA Tournament. On the face of it, they deserve to make the tournament. I think there’s little doubt that Northwestern is one of the top 68 teams in the nation, but that’s not how the tournament works, and the fact is that Northwestern was unable to capitalize on any of its million chances to pick up a third signature victory. Beating Michigan State was impressive. Beating Illinois on the road, at a place Northwestern rarely wins, was impressive. Coming back from a sharp deficit at Carver-Hawkeye Arena was impressive. As was winning the Charleston Classic. But will voters still be smarting over the bad taste of a season gone wrong, of opportunities spoiled and chances given away? Or will they recognize that Northwestern was close in every single one of its losses toward the end of the season, was rarely outclassed and almost always makes for good television? There’s two different ways to approach the issue, and how one chooses to interpret Northwestern’s many close losses will go a long way in deciding whether it makes the tournament or not.

Bubble Boys Take to Indianapolis

I’m definitely pleased with Northwestern’s draw in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wildcats get to take on a Golden Gophers team that they looked dominant against the last time they met up in Evanston, and the last time they met up in Indianapolis. Thankfully, their Big Ten Tournament meeting will take place far away from the Barn, where Minnesota has pummeled Northwestern year after year. The Golden Gophers have lots of talented role players, and a should-be star in Rodney Williams, but they have no one that can take over a game the way Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard can. Ralph Sampson III is fairly flimsy inside, which works well with Northwestern’s interior players, who are all extremely flimsy. I could actually see Shurna, who has a surprising number of blocks in the post, match up effectively against Sampson III, tormenting him with his speed, creativity and power. The only issue is that Sampson III, like Leonard, does block a lot of shots, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him swat away several of Dave Sobolewski’s drives to the net, which would be unfortunate since driving to the hoop is a key part of Northwestern’s game.

If they beat the Golden Gophers, they would move on to face a Wolverines team that they have played close twice before, a Michigan team that lacks a dominant inside force. What scares me most about a potential match with Michigan is that the Wolverines chuck up far more three-pointers than any other team in the Big Ten, and the Wildcats have a fascinating inability to contest top three-point shooters. Northwestern may want to consider abandoning the 1-3-1 zone during parts of a potential match against Michigan. If this game is to reach overtime, like their previous two games against Michigan, then the Wildcats will be boosted by the presence of JerShon Cobb, who has been a critical cog in recent weeks. His defensive energy has been most impressive, as has his ability to rebound the ball, and he is slowly emerging as a scorer as well. He went 6-for-11 against Iowa with three assists, and many of his mid-range jumpers and floaters came in the midst of Northwestern’s season-defining rally at Iowa City. As one of the few Wildcats who can create his own shots, shoot deep, or drive aggressively, Cobb could be invaluable, and his three-point form has slowly come back to respectability. I was very happy to see his picture as one of the leading pictures on the Wildcats’ website. While he might not score like Shurna and Crawford, he deserves a lot of the credit for the way that they have been playing lately.

To address some of the furor surrounding Northwestern, many appear irate at the thought of a team that finished with a sub-.500 record in conference play making the NCAA Tournament. That’s a legitimate opinion. But don’t forget that Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois and Penn State all made it with 9-9 Big Ten records last season, and similar overall records, and furthermore, they all earned fairly high seeds. Michigan was a No. 8 seed, Illinois was a No. 9 seed, and Michigan State and Penn State were both No. 10 seeds. So it’s not that ridiculous to think that Northwestern, with a conference record of just one game below .500, might earn a No. 16 seed, or at least a chance to play-in to the tournament. Add in their really strong performance in non-conference play, and the fact that they essentially have no bad losses, and you have a case for the NCAA Tournament. That being said, I do agree that the Wildcats need a win in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament to really give themselves a chance on Selection Sunday.

Notes About Purdue-Indiana

I can’t help but make a quick comment about Tom Pritchard. He is adorable if not all that talented. He’s the classic Big Ten athlete that you have to respect just because he goes out and competes the right way. In the several minutes I watched, he made two great plays, diving on the floor for a loose ball and hitting a hook shot. Both were nice hustle plays. On the hook shot, it was a clumsy play. He probably should have had the dunk off of a beautiful entry pass, but by the time he collected himself, two defenders were in his face, so he had to work hard, shuffle his feet, and use a crafty little hook to pick up the bucket. His limited athleticism also showed when he missed a dunk and ran straight into a pick within seconds of each other. But again, you have to give him credit for his effort.

Also, let’s give some credit to the fan at Assembly Hall who held a sign with an arrow pointing up to the rafters. It read: “Purdue, here are what banners look like.” Or something like that. Anyway, it was brilliant Hoosier State trash talk, and essentially the ultimate version of the “scoreboard” taunt, except that, instead of referring to a single game, it’s referring to an entire program’s history. Also, a lot of credit to the way this rivalry has run, as we saw both Pritchard and D.J. Byrd of Purdue hit the deck for loose balls. The effort is great, even if Indiana was decidedly in control this season. Purdue did make a late run. After falling behind by 13, the Boilermakers hit a couple of mid-range jumpers and floaters, forced an inbound steal, and a Byrd three-pointer cut the Hoosiers’ lead to six with more than a minute remaining. Unfortunately, Hummel, apparently unaware that he had four personal fouls, picked up his fifth, and from that point on, it was pretty clear who would win the game.

Notes About North Carolina-Duke

The latest installment in the Tobacco Road rivalry was a little bit of a dud, with North Carolina finally showcasing its superior talent. In particular, John Henson was that superior talent, hitting mid-range jumpers with astonishing frequency to complement what is already a potent post game. Tyler Zeller continued an incredible run, with his 9-of-11 performance, finishing with 19 points and 10 rebounds. His ability to tip shots in and finish off entry passes has always been impressive. And of course no one dishes it like Kendall Marshall, who had 10 of his team’s 13 assists. I was impressed with Mason Plumlee. He had 17 points on 7-of-13 shooting in the losing effort, and his assortment of power moves, gritty play and hook shots were something to behold.

But the fact is that North Carolina will always be a better post team, out-rebounding Duke 42-22 on Saturday night, and when the threes aren’t falling for the Blue Devils (6-of-21 on Saturday), they stand little chance of winning. That’s why I can’t take Duke seriously as a title contender. The Blue Devils will always be a top notch team, but can they remain hot for an entire NCAA Tournament run? I will say Duke can start its resurgence with a more aggressive Austin Rivers. Approximately half of his shots were from three-point range, but he is such a good driver, and that could add to his game tremendously. Two interesting notes: North Carolina had only one block and Duke turned it over just six times (with four of those turnovers coming from Rivers). The Tar Heels’ tendency to take off large swaths of time, with hasty threes and turnovers, nearly came back to bite them against the Blue Devils, and could haunt them again in the future.

One more cool note concerning North Carolina. Upon checking the brackets, it appears that the Tar Heels could be in for a meeting with the Hoosiers somewhere down the line, which would mean an intriguing contest of older brother versus younger brother. This would be the one time they ever got the chance to face off, with Tyler Zeller about to depart Chapel Hill, and it would be a rare chance to see brothers go up one-on-one, even if North Carolina would win the overall match handily.

Coming Up Next: Either Tuesday or Wednesday, I will preview the entire Big Ten Tournament for you. Do not miss it. It should be a whole lot of fun.

Living On A Prayer

Northwestern 67 – Penn State 66

First of all, my apologies for not posting more of late. I’ve been really occupied this week with my work for Pro Football Weekly. We’ve been at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis all week, and between the 9-7 days at Lucas Oil Stadium and the long nights of writing at the Comfort Suites across the street, there hasn’t been much time to think about anything other than the NFL. But I figure as long as I’m on the blog tonight, speaking about Northwestern’s win over Penn State, I might as well make a few remarks about the Combine. I’ll try to say something more poetic later, but I should say that I was struck by the similarities between the young kids I was interviewing and myself. At this point, you might be rolling your eyes and smacking your forehead, but I’m serious. Sure, my 40 time would probably be greater than five seconds and my height and weight is more fitting for a career on the links, but beyond the obvious gap in athleticism, there are some serious similarities. Most of us are college seniors. We are all surrounded by the most elite members of our profession and we are all hoping to make a winning impression. In my case, I’m surrounded by some of the most talented sports journalists in the country, big shots like Chris Mortensen and Rachel Nichols, as well as lesser known print journalists, and I’m simply trying to prove I belong. And like the athletes, I’m simply honored to be at the Combine, as hard as I might have to work there, as stressful as it might be. Wisconsin punter Bradley Nortman probably said it best when he told a couple of us:

It’s a thrill, it really is, it’s once in a lifetime. So few get to be part of something this special, something this busy, something that has this much impact on their life, and you know everything about it, I’m just excited to be a part of and to be given an opportunity like this, I’m very blessed.

Back to the important things in life like Northwestern basketball, let me just start by saying that Bon Jovi’s timeless mantra has never seemed more fitting than tonight. Except instead of living on a prayer, it’s living on a call, as a whistle in the final seconds sent John Shurna to the free-throw line with a chance to tie or win the game. He drained both shots, providing the decisive margin in Northwestern’s 67-66 victory over Penn State.

First of all, no matter what Penn State coach Patrick Chambers might think, I believe that the referees absolutely made the right call. There’s little doubt in my mind that Shurna was fouled after he hoisted up his prayer of a jump shot, if not earlier when he received the entry pass. Replays showed fairly conclusively in my opinion that one of the two defenders hit Shurna on the arm. Right call or not, Chambers certainly embarrassed himself when he tried to chase the referees off the court. Thank God his assistant got in his way and held him back, because it seemed to me like he was about to do something that would bring great shame on Penn State. He had nothing to be so angry about. It was certainly a close call, and by no means, a blown call. If he was angry at anybody, his rage should have been directed toward his defender, who made the mistake of fouling Shurna on a very difficult jump shot attempt. As for Shurna, give him credit, not only for draining the free throws but for drawing the foul. Just snatching that entry pass away from the double-team was impressive, and then he had the presence of mind to realize that with the way the defenders were hounding him, a shot would likely result in a foul. I can’t say, of course, whether or not he was thinking that, but it certainly seemed like a smart play from my vantage point, and a brilliant way of working his way to the free-throw line. And then for a guy who has struggled on his free throws at times this season to swish the two biggest free throws of his life, well, it was impressive. Northwestern obviously needed this win, and now at 7-9, the Wildcats remain alive in the hunt for March Madness. My recipe remains clear. One win against Iowa or Ohio State and one win in the Big Ten Tournament should do it. Two regular-season wins or postseason wins would clinch it. And let’s face it, Northwestern fans are just grateful to be able to talk tournament hopes seriously after that scare in Happy Valley. We’re also happy to win at the Bryce Jordan Center for the first time in a very long time. Two wins over the Nittany Lions this season should put an end to the hex that Penn State has had over us in recent years.

The end of the Northwestern-Penn State game was hardly pretty, but it wasn’t the ugliest ending of the day. I would have to give that award to North Carolina and Virginia. An excellent game turned pretty ugly in the second half with a myriad of missed shots, including two missed threes by the Cavaliers in the final minute. Virginia had multiple open chances from behind the arc, and was absolutely unable to hit the big shot. I’ll give credit to Tyler Zeller for his thunderous dunk in the last minute, but at the same time, let’s face it, a fairly mediocre shot fake somehow sent the defense stumbling. It was as much bad defense from the Cavaliers as good offense from the Tar Heels. North Carolina continues to look like something far less than a Dream Team at this point in the season.

Also, my question of the day, does St. John’s have a chance at the NCAA Tournament after defeating a ranked Notre Dame team at home? It doesn’t look like it right now, as the Red Storm are just 13-16 on the season and 6-10 in the Big East. But wait, there’s more. Their final two games are on the road, against Pittsburgh and Rutgers, and if they are able to defeat two of the conference’s cellar-dwellers, they will enter the Big East Tournament on a five-game winning streak. Go on a bit of a run in the tournament, which of course ends on St. John’s home court at Madison Square Garden, and the Red Storm could have a chance. Yes, it’s a remote chance, but it’s not entirely outside of the realm of possibility.

And speaking of tournament talk, how about the Purdue Boilermakers, one of the hottest teams in the country, after a decisive win at No. 13 Michigan. At 9-7 in the Big Ten, and just one bad loss on the season (a 20-point defeat at the hands of Penn State), the Boilermakers should be set for March Madness. Assuming a win over Penn State and a loss to Indiana, which seems logical, they would have a 10-8 record in Big Ten play, and would certainly have the edge over a team like Northwestern, with their two wins over the Wildcats. Those games suddenly look increasingly crucial. If the Wildcats are able to snag either of those two games, then they might get a bid over the Boilermakers.

Same Tobacco Road, New Circumstances

Did you know that the entire college basketball world doesn’t revolve around the Northwestern Wildcats? Shocking, I know. Particularly given the way I cover college basketball on this blog. But if there’s one thing I enjoy nearly as much as Northwestern basketball, it’s North Carolina basketball, and the Tar Heels have a doozy tonight, with a home match against the Blue Devils.

It’s funny because they had Dick Vitale on some radio show that I was listening to yesterday afternoon, and they asked him about tonight’s North Carolina-Duke contest, and he said that as exciting as that game was, watch out for Florida-Kentucky Tuesday night. Well, that one was a dud. Thank you very much, Dickie V for the recommendation. I turned on the television last night and the Wildcats were up by 20. Sure enough, Kentucky held on to defeat Florida 78-58. But hopefully, Dickie V’s projections will be more accurate when it comes to tonight’s contest.

The Tar Heels would have been a huge favorite earlier this season, but losses to Florida State, UNLV and Kentucky ended all talk of a perfect campaign, and now injuries to Harrison Barnes and Dexter Strickland have put their ability to win tonight’s game in question. Thankfully, they still have John Henson, who I believe is the best center in the country, and someone Duke simply cannot match up with, with their cadre of light and fluffy, sweet-shooting interior players. Henson is averaging a double-double this season, as well as 3.2 blocks a game, and the kid posted a double-double all three times North Carolina played Duke last season, including an 18-rebound performance in their ACC Tournament meeting. That being said, Henson also went 8-for-25 against the Blue Devils in their last two contests, uncharacteristic for a guy who usually makes more shots than he misses. Still, Henson is a beast, and the Sultan of Swat should reign tonight.

North Carolina didn’t look great against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Maryland, however, and the Tar Heels’ halftime deficit against the Terrapins was troubling. This is a team that isn’t necessarily playing its best basketball of the season, which gives Duke a solid shot at stealing this one on the road. To do so, the Blue Devils will have to contain Tyler Zeller, who had 22 points against Maryland. Zeller isn’t the most impressive post player on his own, but when combined with Henson, the two form an overwhelming pair.

Highly disappointing is the loss of what could have been a magnificent personal grudge match. Before Strickland was lost for the season, I thought we might see Strickland go up against his girlfriend’s brother, Duke guard Austin Rivers. How awkward would that be? Unfortunately, it will just be Rivers (14.5 points per game) tonight. In addition to their star guard, the Blue Devils boast an unusually balanced attack, with four players shooting over 37 percent from behind the arc, and five players averaging greater than 9.5 points per game on the season. Don’t forget junior guard Seth Curry, who scored 42 points in the first two installments of last year’s Tobacco Road rivalry, including a most impressive 6-for-11 performance from behind the arc in his sole appearance at the Dean E. Smith Center.

Duke has lost two of its last five, including a four-point home loss to Miami, in which Rivers nearly posted a double-double. For a rivalry that has usually featured teams unaccustomed to losing, the air of desperation surrounding this game will be the slightest bit unusual. Usually, this game is for the ACC Championship. Now, this game is, to some extent, for the right to remain in the race. Gentlemen, start your engines. This should be a good one.

Also, not to be forgotten in the Duke-North Carolina mess, Baylor and Kansas do play tonight in a crucial Big XII contest. Most fans will likely forget about that match in the wake of the Tobacco Road rivalry, but in some ways that’s an even better game, matching two top 10 teams with identical conference records. It’s also a fine contest between a perennial powerhouse and the new kids on the block, who would love nothing more than to prove their worth against Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

Statistic of the Game:

3.2: With 3.2 blocks per game, North Carolina F John Henson is averaging nearly as many blocks as the entire Duke team.

What to Watch For:

Duke ranks 104th in the nation with 36 rebounds per game. North Carolina ranks first with 46.3 boards per game. For a Blue Devils team that was out-rebounded by the Hurricanes their last time out, limiting the damage on the glass will be critical.

Question Mark:

Harrison Barnes has drained just 9-of-27 shots in his last two games, and questions remain as to how big a role his injury will play in tonight’s game. On the bright side, Barnes has been able to get to the line these past couple games, which indicates that he is still active in driving to the hoop. He has taken and made the second most free throws of anyone on the team this season, right behind the master of the charity stripe, Tyler Zeller.