Federer Back On Top, Purdue Comes Oh So Close

Watching North Carolina take on Creighton made for an interesting sight. Obviously, the big news was that the Tar Heels lost another key cog in their championship machine. It’s not clear how long Kendall Marshall will be out for, but I think if he’s out, that ends all of their hopes. There is no better facilitator of an attack than Marshall, who entered the year as one of the best passers in the country, and then improved his shot greatly this season to become a true all-around weapon. With his wrist now fractured, and John Henson’s wrist in spotty shape as well, bad luck has befallen North Carolina at exactly the wrong time. This team is talented enough to overcome any loss, including Henson’s, but losing Marshall might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Bet Tar Heels fans are wishing they didn’t treat Larry Drew II so badly now. They could really use him at this moment.

Anyway, back to the game. As ridiculous as Creighton junior center Gregory Echenique looks with his pink shoes and sporty glasses, I like his aggression, even if he did get away with a Shaquille O’Neal-like elbow on Tyler Zeller. He moves pretty fast for his size, beating nearly everyone up the court on one Creighton fast break, and has a nice collection of hook shots at his disposal. He also showcased a few nice fakes and some lateral quickness and had an absolutely vicious dunk on a North Carolina defender. Between him and Doug McDermott, who can clean up down low as well as anyone, the Bluejays are impressive down low.

Tar Heels forward John Henson, of course, was wild early, drawing a rather stupid technical foul when he got up in a Creighton player’s face after what appeared to be incidental contact. He then let the off-the-court antics get in his way on-the-court, as he tried to avenge his anger on one quick play, overpowering a layup well beyond the square, for an embarrassing miss. He quickly regained control, however, hitting a nice lay-up, followed by a jump shot and then blocking what would have been an easy lay-up on the defensive end. Meanwhile, Kendall Marshall was his usual stellar self, leading the fast break with his long, quick passes, while also spotting up and hitting everything in sight. He scored 13 points in the game’s first 13 minutes, including a three-pointer and an even prettier play, in which he trailed his pass, and ended up with a finger roll. Marshall continues to prove himself as a rare talent.

As for Henson, who left the game temporarily with an injury toward the end of the first half, he played long enough to place the game in the Tar Heels’ hands, and that was enough for Sunday. As if to reassure anxious North Carolina fans, James McAdoo scored on an easy cut to the basket on the very next play, as if to remind Tar Heels’ fans that they still had an All-American under the hoop. Two if you count Zeller. That’s the luxury of rooting for a basketball factory like North Carolina, of course, where if one star gets injured, you churn out another. Moments later, McAdoo reaffirmed his presence on the court, blocking McDermott as he tried to swing back and forth and maneuver his way toward an open shot. Creighton had cut its deficit from 15 to eight at that point, so McAdoo’s block was crucial. Then, Marshall missed a free throw, and McAdoo tipped the rebound back to a teammate. It was a solid end to the half for McAdoo if not for the Tar Heels, who entered the intermission with a tenuous eight-point lead. Coach Roy Williams, clearly unhappy with the 7-0 Bluejays run to end the half, told the sideline reporter that his team had to stop playing “silly basketball” and when the sideline reporter tried to eek out some praise for Marshall, the veteran coach simply mentioned that it would be nice if Marshall would stop turning the ball over, please. It was one of the more entertaining sideline interviews you will ever see, and gave viewers some idea of how uncomfortable that locker room might be. In retrospect, Williams would probably take Marshall and his turnovers, over walk-on point guard Stilman White. Meanwhile, if Marshall truly is out, Tyler Zeller will have to step it up in the post, and interior weapons James McAdoo and Desmond Hubert might have to help lead a grittier Tar Heels attack, as they transition from Showtime to old-fashioned Motor City basketball. Of course, anytime you have a weapon like Harrison Barnes, who wowed me with consecutive step-back three-pointers from well behind the arc, you have a chance. He’s the ultimate athlete, if not yet the ultimate basketball player. With Marshall out, the open looks for P.J. Hairston and Reggie Bullock might be no longer. Instead, of Marshall creating shots for them, guys like Barnes will have to create their own shots in the half-court offense, because I don’t think Stilman White is going to beat the defense up the court, with his legs or his passes.

Also, one more note, the whole stadium setup of the NCAA Tournament is mind-boggling and patently unfair. I know it’s inevitable that some regional arenas will fall somewhere close to the homes of the 68 teams participating in March Madness, but to have Duke and North Carolina’s games take place in Greensboro, North Carolina is absurd. Why not put Duke and North Carolina in the West bracket to avoid such occurrences? Because otherwise it’s simply unfair to teams like Lehigh and Creighton, to put them in a stadium with 14,000 Tar Heels fans or 10,000 Blue Devils fans. That just doesn’t seem right. Especially when Creighton, instead of playing in the Omaha region, was forced to play in Greensboro. That’s pretty messed up.

Meanwhile, in one of the major stories of this year’s NCAA Tournament, Purdue nearly capped off a dream weekend for the Big Ten. If the Boilermakers had beaten the Jayhawks, they would have become the fifth conference team to make it into the Sweet Sixteen. Ultimately, they fell short. But while Purdue may have lost, Robbie Hummel will never be forgotten. This is one of those games that will be aired over and over again on ESPN Classic, as it was a nail-biter the entire way, from the early moments when you wondered how much longer Kansas would miss easy shots for and wondered how many more three-pointers Purdue could hit, to the late moments when the Boilermakers’ lead was continually whittled down, but never seemed to fade away. The end was magical, as multiple Purdue shots came a smidgen away from falling, including what would have been a game-tying three-pointer at the buzzer. Down three, the Boilermakers got the perfect inbound pass, a beautiful half-court heave to Ryne Smith, who nearly banked it home, but his half-court shot ultimately glanced off of the front rim. And so it ended, one of the most entertaining games of this March Madness, and one of the great stories of this college basketball season, the improbable rebirth of Robbie Hummel.

Purdue seized an early ten-point lead behind incredible three-point shooting, particularly from Robbie Hummel. The senior was confidently taking shots from everywhere, from well behind the arc, and with defenders on him. He hit several tough shots from the baseline, and each time, his shot looked the same, rolling off the bottom of the bucket. He was in the zone. He didn’t hesitate. He simply shot. Purdue, as a whole, took that philosophy, rolling off screens, and stopping in motion to take three-pointers. On the other hand, you had to believe that Kansas would come back once it stopped trying to shoot the ball so much, and started exploiting its natural advantage in the paint. Why the Jayhawks came out shooting three-pointers, I’ll never know. But still they were missing some easy shots, and you had to figure that they wouldn’t shoot at a 2-of-16 rate for the duration of the contest. Momentum first started to swing in my opinion when D.J. Byrd tried to save a loose ball out-of-bounds, only to fling it right into Kansas’ hands, leading to a fast break and an intentional foul call, which was bogus in my opinion, since he was going for the block. Regardless, it got the Jayhawks’ fan base incensed, and then when Conner Teahan made a three-pointer with minutes to go in the first half to draw Kansas within six, it was clear that it was game on. Same when Tyshawn Taylor drained a three-pointer to draw Kansas within four. From there on out, it was a physical contest, and while the Jayhawks were certainly dominant on the boards, you have to give the Boilermakers credit for their impressive physicality. That physicality rewarded them in the post, where they held Thomas Robinson in check for the majority of the evening.

But at the end, as Purdue took a six-point lead into the intermission, it was all about Hummel, particularly on one possession in which all of Purdue’s cuts were blocked off. With five seconds left, Hummel was behind the arc, and was dribbling away from the basket, a hopeless wanderer it seemed, until he suddenly turned around, and chucked up a quick shot. Again, it fell right in. Finishing the half with 22 points, Hummel literally missed just one free-throw attempt and one three-point attempt in the first half. He stepped out-of-bounds on one drive to the basket, but other than that, he was picture-perfect: aggressive on the boards, and sterling on the shot. It was a long time in coming for Hummel, who has endured so much, and is now enjoying the moment. As someone who just suffered a sprained ankle himself, I admire Hummel’s boldness and reckless abandon on the court, flopping about, even after he underwent two ACL surgeries on the same knee.

In the second half, you could see the difference from the opening possession. It’s not as if Hummel was open in the first half, most of his three-pointers came with a defender marking him, but in the second half, Kansas stepped it up a notch, harassing Hummel as he tried to post up, and even cutting Hummel off as he attempted to get rid of the ball, nearly forcing a turnover. But Purdue’s other scorers stepped up in Hummel’s wake, at least at first. More important, the Boilermakers started adding offensive rebounds to their arsenal, taking advantage of the Jayhawks’ zone defense, to find their way to the glass. They had five more shots than the Jayhawks did midway through the second half, a reversal of what happened in the first half, but the shots began to abandon Purdue. Timely shots maintained its lead for a while, but with Lewis Jackson unable to finish his drives to the hoop, and the threes suddenly not falling, the game began to tighten up. Kansas had a big chance, down 47-44, when it got several open shot opportunities, boosted by multiple offensive rebounds, but it couldn’t take advantage, and on the other end, D.J. Byrd again proved that he could do more than hit threes, grabbing the offensive rebound, and drawing a foul to get to the charity stripe. His ensuing free-throws brought the Boilermakers’ lead to five.

But Purdue’s lack of elite scorers killed it at game’s end. While Kansas had Thomas Robinson there to block Lewis Jackson’s final failed swoop to the hoop, Purdue only had Hummel, which was good enough for the majority of the game but not for its entirety. While the Jayhawks had Elijah Johnson heaving it half-court to Tyshawn Taylor for an alley-oop with a little over a minute remaining, the Boilermakers had no such flare. Give credit to Johnson. That was an incredibly risky play, with his team trailing by three, and with an advantage on the fast-break, to go for the alley-oop. If it fails, Purdue probably wins the game, and Johnson finds himself in Bill Self’s doghouse. But instead, the play worked to perfection. Meanwhile, Purdue got a couple of last big plays from Robbie Hummel. He had a beautiful score off of an inbound pass, in which he caught the ball in mid-air, hung in the stratosphere as he flowed toward the hoop and let a little floater go that found its way into the hoop. Later on, he made a gorgeous power move to the hoop, kissing the ball high off of the glass for two points. But 22 of Hummel’s 26 points came in the first half, as did 36 of Purdue’s 60 points, and without him, the Boilermakers simply weren’t the same. Lewis Jackson, as quick and spritely as he is, couldn’t finish a drive to save his life, and as lovely as Purdue’s cast of characters are, they couldn’t step up when they needed to the most. And Jackson, at the end, killed them, trying to dribble out possessions like a man working his way around a minefield. It reminded me of the old computer game, Minesweeper, as Jackson dribbled around, trying to avoid contact, until he dribbled right into a Jayhawks’ defender. His turnover with a minute or so remaining was an absolute cardinal sin, and a deadly bad break to befall Purdue.

Ladies and gentlemen, in spite of tonight’s loss, watch out for the Boilermakers. That’s all I have to say. Not necessarily this year. I don’t think this Purdue team ever had what it took to win a national championship. Not necessarily next year, because Hummel’s loss will be hard to cope with. But in the next couple of years, with a Top 15 recruiting class coming in, and one of the best coaches in the nation at its helm, watch out for Purdue. Seriously, what Matt Painter has done with a bunch of feisty role players and a couple of shooters is astounding. The Boilermakers possess such strong and fundamental defense. This is a team that you can say with certainty is a well-coached squad. Give Painter credit. Purdue has its man.

On the upset side of things, nothing is more depressing than a dandy of an underdog falling flat in the ensuing round. After all the energy, hype and hoopla generated from a thrilling upset, it’s as much of a downer as you can get when said underdog falls by 20 points in the next round. It’s as if, after a joyous moment of anarchy, order is restored. Disbelief turns into belief, before falling back into disbelief. That happened to some extent with Norfolk State. People will not notice, they will only remember the stunning upset, but after beating Missouri, the Spartans were demolished by the Gators. So, they will be thought of forever on as one-hit wonders, a group of men who came together on one special night, before the reality of their inferiority reasserted itself against Florida. Unlike VCU which will long be remembered for one magical season, Norfolk State will be remembered for one magical night. Lehigh, on the other hand, fought valiantly against Xavier, disappointing nobody. Not that there were many people to disappoint. It was sad to see the number of empty seats at the end of the Xavier-Lehigh game. Clearly, a mass exodus of fans followed the conclusion of the North Carolina game, which is a shame, considering how much good basketball remained. Wouldn’t Tar Heels fans want to stick around to see the Mountain Hawks team that downed the mighty Blue Devils?

Meanwhile, on the tennis court, John Isner didn’t seem to be on the attack in the championship match of the BNP Paribas Open as he was in his semifinal match against Novak Djokovic. Roger Federer was able to return his serves to the back-end of the court, often pressing Isner up against the back line. Meanwhile, Federer displayed a dominant serve of his own, compiling three straight aces at one point, and indeed, he never appeared challenged on his own serve. His drop shot was devastating, he hit the lines with no fear and he took advantage of Isner’s lanky build. Far too often, Isner simply gave up on the ball, freezing in the middle of the court, unsure of where to go, absolutely sure of the point’s fate.

The game really turned on the first tiebreaker, as emotion and momentum swayed back and forth throughout. Federer angrily swung his racket, and smacked an extra ball into the net, after falling behind 3-2. He was far happier after breaking consecutive serves from Isner, but Federer was broken himself, and later on in the tiebreak, Isner fought back with a serve so powerful that Federer was left waving his racket like a wimpy wand. Ultimately, in a tiebreaker that remained close until the very end, Federer was able to hold his own, thus securing an impressive and hard-fought victory.

Northwestern, North Carolina and the Beginnings of March Madness

After all of the bad breaks Northwestern has received over the years, it was nice to see the Wildcats catch a break or two against the Hawkeyes at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Just thinking back on those final couple of minutes, Northwestern didn’t exactly look confident in closing out the game Saturday, but somehow it got the job done. Two free throws by Alex Marcotullio, who I wanted shooting the free throws since he has ice water in his veins, barely rattled in. Meanwhile, Iowa missed a solid shot at a three-pointer in the closing seconds that would have won it. Now, everyone keeps saying that the Hawkeyes missed a wide-open three-pointer. I’m less convinced of that. The Wildcats did a nice job of closing out, and blocking the sight line of the Hawkeyes’ shooter, but no doubt about it, it was a great opportunity for Iowa, and a shot that has seemed to fall every other time in Northwestern history, finally hit rim, and so the Wildcats caught a break. So, Northwestern won the game and now remains firmly enmeshed in the bubble conversation. Just to hear our university talked about it in that way carries its own kind of thrill, and for once, having more than a dream to play for in Indianapolis is refreshing. And if we do ultimately land in the NIT, three home games likely await us. But since Marcotullio’s shots did ultimately roll into the basket, let’s dare to dream for a while, and enjoy a few more weeks of March Madness. Let’s bask in the feeling of Madness in Evanston. God knows when we will get this feeling again.

I was impressed with the fury with which the Wildcats played on Saturday. Their defense was awfully stingy, forcing 18 turnovers, and those turnovers allowed them to overcome an enormous early deficit. On the offensive end, however, it seemed as if Northwestern was almost playing with too much energy early on, as the Wildcats were doing a beautiful job of driving to the hoop, only to mangle passes and overpower easy shots. It was as if the blood was pumping a little too rapidly. But give them credit. After falling behind by 15, they didn’t just stem the tide, they turned the tide around completely. Facing a fired-up Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the Wildcats went on a 27-5 run to end the half, relying on their defensive ferocity and ability to run the court to generate quick points.

Giving Gatens Due Credit

Give a lot of credit to Matt Gatens, who went 6-for-12 on his Senior Night, going 38 minutes without a single turnover. He has only turned it over three times or more four times this season, and has always been a solid player, if not a great one. And when he hit that three from several feet behind the arc on Saturday, to draw Iowa within a basket or two, I seriously thought Northwestern might be screwed. Gatens was a scary player in his day, and he’ll need to be scary in the Big Ten Tournament to give Iowa a shot at the NIT. Currently, Iowa is said to be on the NIT bubble, but is not projected to make it in. Why Minnesota is projected to get into the NIT over Iowa remains unclear to me, especially when the Hawkeyes posted a far better record in Big Ten play.

Wildcats’ Season In Review

At 8-10 in conference, the Wildcats were actually right where I was hoping they would end up at the beginning of the season. Well, OK, so maybe I had slightly more ambitious dreams, but they definitely did some things right this season. In past years, Northwestern has struggled to win the easy games, and this year, they took care of business with a ruthless nature at times. They won the Charleston Classic, kicked Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa off the court at Welsh-Ryan Arena, and showed that not every Wildcats game needs to come down to the final buzzer. But they lost zillions of close games, and with Shurna missing that final free-throw against Iowa, and a shaky performance toward the end at Penn State, the Wildcats still lack clutch credentials. For that matter, they still somewhat lack credentials for the NCAA Tournament. On the face of it, they deserve to make the tournament. I think there’s little doubt that Northwestern is one of the top 68 teams in the nation, but that’s not how the tournament works, and the fact is that Northwestern was unable to capitalize on any of its million chances to pick up a third signature victory. Beating Michigan State was impressive. Beating Illinois on the road, at a place Northwestern rarely wins, was impressive. Coming back from a sharp deficit at Carver-Hawkeye Arena was impressive. As was winning the Charleston Classic. But will voters still be smarting over the bad taste of a season gone wrong, of opportunities spoiled and chances given away? Or will they recognize that Northwestern was close in every single one of its losses toward the end of the season, was rarely outclassed and almost always makes for good television? There’s two different ways to approach the issue, and how one chooses to interpret Northwestern’s many close losses will go a long way in deciding whether it makes the tournament or not.

Bubble Boys Take to Indianapolis

I’m definitely pleased with Northwestern’s draw in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wildcats get to take on a Golden Gophers team that they looked dominant against the last time they met up in Evanston, and the last time they met up in Indianapolis. Thankfully, their Big Ten Tournament meeting will take place far away from the Barn, where Minnesota has pummeled Northwestern year after year. The Golden Gophers have lots of talented role players, and a should-be star in Rodney Williams, but they have no one that can take over a game the way Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard can. Ralph Sampson III is fairly flimsy inside, which works well with Northwestern’s interior players, who are all extremely flimsy. I could actually see Shurna, who has a surprising number of blocks in the post, match up effectively against Sampson III, tormenting him with his speed, creativity and power. The only issue is that Sampson III, like Leonard, does block a lot of shots, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him swat away several of Dave Sobolewski’s drives to the net, which would be unfortunate since driving to the hoop is a key part of Northwestern’s game.

If they beat the Golden Gophers, they would move on to face a Wolverines team that they have played close twice before, a Michigan team that lacks a dominant inside force. What scares me most about a potential match with Michigan is that the Wolverines chuck up far more three-pointers than any other team in the Big Ten, and the Wildcats have a fascinating inability to contest top three-point shooters. Northwestern may want to consider abandoning the 1-3-1 zone during parts of a potential match against Michigan. If this game is to reach overtime, like their previous two games against Michigan, then the Wildcats will be boosted by the presence of JerShon Cobb, who has been a critical cog in recent weeks. His defensive energy has been most impressive, as has his ability to rebound the ball, and he is slowly emerging as a scorer as well. He went 6-for-11 against Iowa with three assists, and many of his mid-range jumpers and floaters came in the midst of Northwestern’s season-defining rally at Iowa City. As one of the few Wildcats who can create his own shots, shoot deep, or drive aggressively, Cobb could be invaluable, and his three-point form has slowly come back to respectability. I was very happy to see his picture as one of the leading pictures on the Wildcats’ website. While he might not score like Shurna and Crawford, he deserves a lot of the credit for the way that they have been playing lately.

To address some of the furor surrounding Northwestern, many appear irate at the thought of a team that finished with a sub-.500 record in conference play making the NCAA Tournament. That’s a legitimate opinion. But don’t forget that Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois and Penn State all made it with 9-9 Big Ten records last season, and similar overall records, and furthermore, they all earned fairly high seeds. Michigan was a No. 8 seed, Illinois was a No. 9 seed, and Michigan State and Penn State were both No. 10 seeds. So it’s not that ridiculous to think that Northwestern, with a conference record of just one game below .500, might earn a No. 16 seed, or at least a chance to play-in to the tournament. Add in their really strong performance in non-conference play, and the fact that they essentially have no bad losses, and you have a case for the NCAA Tournament. That being said, I do agree that the Wildcats need a win in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament to really give themselves a chance on Selection Sunday.

Notes About Purdue-Indiana

I can’t help but make a quick comment about Tom Pritchard. He is adorable if not all that talented. He’s the classic Big Ten athlete that you have to respect just because he goes out and competes the right way. In the several minutes I watched, he made two great plays, diving on the floor for a loose ball and hitting a hook shot. Both were nice hustle plays. On the hook shot, it was a clumsy play. He probably should have had the dunk off of a beautiful entry pass, but by the time he collected himself, two defenders were in his face, so he had to work hard, shuffle his feet, and use a crafty little hook to pick up the bucket. His limited athleticism also showed when he missed a dunk and ran straight into a pick within seconds of each other. But again, you have to give him credit for his effort.

Also, let’s give some credit to the fan at Assembly Hall who held a sign with an arrow pointing up to the rafters. It read: “Purdue, here are what banners look like.” Or something like that. Anyway, it was brilliant Hoosier State trash talk, and essentially the ultimate version of the “scoreboard” taunt, except that, instead of referring to a single game, it’s referring to an entire program’s history. Also, a lot of credit to the way this rivalry has run, as we saw both Pritchard and D.J. Byrd of Purdue hit the deck for loose balls. The effort is great, even if Indiana was decidedly in control this season. Purdue did make a late run. After falling behind by 13, the Boilermakers hit a couple of mid-range jumpers and floaters, forced an inbound steal, and a Byrd three-pointer cut the Hoosiers’ lead to six with more than a minute remaining. Unfortunately, Hummel, apparently unaware that he had four personal fouls, picked up his fifth, and from that point on, it was pretty clear who would win the game.

Notes About North Carolina-Duke

The latest installment in the Tobacco Road rivalry was a little bit of a dud, with North Carolina finally showcasing its superior talent. In particular, John Henson was that superior talent, hitting mid-range jumpers with astonishing frequency to complement what is already a potent post game. Tyler Zeller continued an incredible run, with his 9-of-11 performance, finishing with 19 points and 10 rebounds. His ability to tip shots in and finish off entry passes has always been impressive. And of course no one dishes it like Kendall Marshall, who had 10 of his team’s 13 assists. I was impressed with Mason Plumlee. He had 17 points on 7-of-13 shooting in the losing effort, and his assortment of power moves, gritty play and hook shots were something to behold.

But the fact is that North Carolina will always be a better post team, out-rebounding Duke 42-22 on Saturday night, and when the threes aren’t falling for the Blue Devils (6-of-21 on Saturday), they stand little chance of winning. That’s why I can’t take Duke seriously as a title contender. The Blue Devils will always be a top notch team, but can they remain hot for an entire NCAA Tournament run? I will say Duke can start its resurgence with a more aggressive Austin Rivers. Approximately half of his shots were from three-point range, but he is such a good driver, and that could add to his game tremendously. Two interesting notes: North Carolina had only one block and Duke turned it over just six times (with four of those turnovers coming from Rivers). The Tar Heels’ tendency to take off large swaths of time, with hasty threes and turnovers, nearly came back to bite them against the Blue Devils, and could haunt them again in the future.

One more cool note concerning North Carolina. Upon checking the brackets, it appears that the Tar Heels could be in for a meeting with the Hoosiers somewhere down the line, which would mean an intriguing contest of older brother versus younger brother. This would be the one time they ever got the chance to face off, with Tyler Zeller about to depart Chapel Hill, and it would be a rare chance to see brothers go up one-on-one, even if North Carolina would win the overall match handily.

Coming Up Next: Either Tuesday or Wednesday, I will preview the entire Big Ten Tournament for you. Do not miss it. It should be a whole lot of fun.

Living on a Prayer in Chapel Hill

The question that still lingers in my mind hours after the conclusion of Wednesday’s contest between North Carolina and Duke is would that shot have gone in? If you watched the game, you know what shot I’m talking about. With 14 seconds remaining, Duke forward Ryan Kelly hoisted up a shot from behind the three-point line that appeared to be well off track, and North Carolina center Tyler Zeller, who later told the press that he was going for the rebound, tipped it in. After a brief discussion amongst the referees, it was decided that the shot was no longer worth three points, but two points since Zeller had tipped it in. In my opinion, once Zeller touched that ball, it would have been two points regardless of whether the ball went in or not. The ball was on its way down, its destiny not yet clear, when Zeller deflected it. It was goaltending without a doubt, and a surprisingly stupid play from the usually heady senior. Zeller simply jumped early. Also, why he wouldn’t just grab the ball, rather than tip it, remains unclear to me. By tipping it, Zeller was taking a risk. Clearly, he never expected the ball to deflect backwards into the basket, but it could have deflected into a Duke player’s hands. Why not catch it? How ironic that the fall of mighty North Carolina came on the boards, where the Tar Heels have been so dominant all season.

Alas, at the end of the game, North Carolina’s rebounding skills faded away. The Tar Heels out-rebounded the Blue Devils by seven in the first half, as expected, and it went beyond the stats sheet, North Carolina was absolutely dominant on the boards, wreaking havoc at every possible opportunity. It didn’t really matter if the Duke player had prime position under the hoop, Tyler Zeller and John Henson were always able to reach higher. But in the second half, Duke and North Carolina were literally even on the boards, and the Blue Devils snared eight offensive rebounds to the Tar Heels’ five. Rebounding was North Carolina’s biggest advantage entering Thursday’s contest, and once that faded away, Duke had free rein. The Blue Devils’ timely rebounding continued into the final minutes, most notably when Ryan Kelly missed a three-pointer from the corner pocket, hustled to the loose ball, picked up the long rebound and hoisted up another jump shot, this time from within the arc. It was a perfect play from Kelly, as he impressively hesitated for just a second with the ball, waited for the perfect moment when the two Tar Heels defenders had their hands down, and took the baseline jumper. That cut North Carolina’s advantage to two.

Then, Tyler Zeller pulled a John Shurna and missed one of two shots at the free-throw line. The usually rock solid free-throw shooter suffered uncharacteristic difficulties at the charity stripe Wednesday, including a missed pair of free throws at one point. It was highly unlike him, and even though he ended the day with a fairly impressive 7-of-11 clip from the charity stripe, it wasn’t a Zeller-like performance. Elite free-throw shooters occasionally miss shots from the charity stripe, but they usually don’t miss a pair of attempts. In fact, when a good shooter misses the first free throw, I usually have more confidence that he’ll sink the second, since his full focus is on the task at hand, and since I expect him to figure out what went awry on the first one and make the necessary adjustments. When Zeller missed a pair, an alarm bell went off in my head. It was too bad, to see Zeller suffer that way in the final few minutes, since he had put up such a good game previously, posting a double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds. Zeller had been the only thing keeping North Carolina alive in the first half, stunning Duke with a bevy of jump shots, dunks and offensive rebounds. Yet, in the end, it was Zeller that cost the Tar Heels the game.

While the dark cloud of tragedy prevails over Franklin Street now, North Carolina fans shouldn’t fret. Yes, it has been a frustrating season so far, with losses to UNLV, Florida State and Duke that no one saw coming, but the Tar Heels are still an elite team. In fact, they’re far better than the Blue Devils. They are the best team in the ACC. They can drive to the hoop like it’s nobody’s business. When North Carolina was able to turn the game into a track meet, running up and down the court, the Tar Heels were absolutely dominant, and they certainly finish fast-breaks beautifully around the basket. It’s funny, the difference between the two teams was illustrated quite clearly on one Duke fast-break, when the Blue Devils sprinted down court with a two-on-one, but rather than drive to the hoop, the player without the ball sprinted to the wing, and the ball-handler dished it to him for a quick attempt from behind the arc. North Carolina would have driven the ball. Duke preferred to shoot the three. It really was fascinating to see two starkly different philosophies in conflict Wednesday. Rarely do you see two teams that play the game so differently. Duke prefers to pass it around the perimeter, and take deep shots. North Carolina wants to dump the ball into the paint and work from there. Either that or run the court.

Anyway, back to my point, North Carolina has the better team. Tyler Zeller and John Henson are absolutely dominant down low, although I thought Henson was a little too quiet on both ends of the court Wednesday. He didn’t seem quite as intimidating as usual with his defensive presence. But the Tar Heels out-scored the Blue Devils 42-14 in the paint. That is a recipe for success. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils didn’t play sustainable basketball. They were outstanding from behind the arc Wednesday, scoring 51 of their 85 points from three-point land, but many of those shots were tough shots, taken from well behind the arc, or with the shooter’s momentum taking him away from the basket. They went in Wednesday night, but will they go in their next time out? Wednesday night was their night. I wouldn’t expect it to happen again, however. I think if these two teams met 10 times, North Carolina would win nine times. This was Duke’s night. And what a special night it was.

Austin Rivers was unbelievable all game, but that final shot simply made me chuckle. I was rooting for North Carolina, but even I had to admit that was a pretty cool way to end the game. The entire time I was thinking what is this chuckle-head doing, dribbling out the clock, without ever trying to penetrate past the arc. With Duke trailing by only two, he could have pushed the ball inside. Seconds were ticking off the clock and he kept dribbling. Dribbling nowhere. His defender, Zeller, must have also been wondering why Rivers was willing to settle for such a bad shot, but after an eternity, he caught Zeller unaware, and hoisted up a three-pointer as the buzzer went off. It was a beautiful shot, falling right through the laces of the net, and just like that, bedlam ensued in Chapel Hill. ESPN flashed to a picture of a stunned student section, so ready to celebrate minutes earlier, now wondering if they had somehow fallen into Hell during halftime. I was stunned myself, but more over why they had Zeller on Rivers, and why for that matter, Rivers didn’t try driving on his presumably slower defender. No matter, it capped an unbelievable 29-point, five-rebound performance from Rivers, in which he made 6-of-10 from behind the arc. Combine Rivers and Seth Curry, and they made 10-of-18 from three-point land. That’s insane, particularly when most of the shots were self-created and weren’t exactly easy. Yes, North Carolina’s perimeter defense lacked luster, but they still had guys out there, Duke was still forced to take wild three pointers and the Blue Devils made every single one of them. Why the Tar Heels didn’t continue pushing them back, farther and farther, until they reached the half-court line remains unclear to me. Your defenders are already out there, why not push them a little farther. Make Duke beat you with the backdoor.

Also, let’s note that Harrison Barnes is fine. After all the talk about his health status, he scored 25 points, earned 12 shots from the charity stripe and sped his way down court on multiple fast-breaks. He looked absolutely great all game. Mobility was never an issue for him. This perfect team has just two problems that could keep it from the ultimate goal. One is obvious, their lack of depth, and that is something that they can’t really do anything about. It’s not their fault that Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland are both out for the season with injuries. But the other issue, which they can do something about, is situational basketball. Up 10 points at home, there’s no way North Carolina should have lost this game. But the Tar Heels turned the ball over, made defensive mistakes, surrendered offensive rebounds, and somehow failed to attempt a single field goal in the final minutes. The Tar Heels need to learn how to keep their feet on the gas pedal for all 40 minutes. They need to practice getting around screens, keeping their hands up and defending the three. The talent is there. Now, Roy Williams just needs to develop it. He has time. Thankfully for North Carolina, March is a month away.

Same Tobacco Road, New Circumstances

Did you know that the entire college basketball world doesn’t revolve around the Northwestern Wildcats? Shocking, I know. Particularly given the way I cover college basketball on this blog. But if there’s one thing I enjoy nearly as much as Northwestern basketball, it’s North Carolina basketball, and the Tar Heels have a doozy tonight, with a home match against the Blue Devils.

It’s funny because they had Dick Vitale on some radio show that I was listening to yesterday afternoon, and they asked him about tonight’s North Carolina-Duke contest, and he said that as exciting as that game was, watch out for Florida-Kentucky Tuesday night. Well, that one was a dud. Thank you very much, Dickie V for the recommendation. I turned on the television last night and the Wildcats were up by 20. Sure enough, Kentucky held on to defeat Florida 78-58. But hopefully, Dickie V’s projections will be more accurate when it comes to tonight’s contest.

The Tar Heels would have been a huge favorite earlier this season, but losses to Florida State, UNLV and Kentucky ended all talk of a perfect campaign, and now injuries to Harrison Barnes and Dexter Strickland have put their ability to win tonight’s game in question. Thankfully, they still have John Henson, who I believe is the best center in the country, and someone Duke simply cannot match up with, with their cadre of light and fluffy, sweet-shooting interior players. Henson is averaging a double-double this season, as well as 3.2 blocks a game, and the kid posted a double-double all three times North Carolina played Duke last season, including an 18-rebound performance in their ACC Tournament meeting. That being said, Henson also went 8-for-25 against the Blue Devils in their last two contests, uncharacteristic for a guy who usually makes more shots than he misses. Still, Henson is a beast, and the Sultan of Swat should reign tonight.

North Carolina didn’t look great against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Maryland, however, and the Tar Heels’ halftime deficit against the Terrapins was troubling. This is a team that isn’t necessarily playing its best basketball of the season, which gives Duke a solid shot at stealing this one on the road. To do so, the Blue Devils will have to contain Tyler Zeller, who had 22 points against Maryland. Zeller isn’t the most impressive post player on his own, but when combined with Henson, the two form an overwhelming pair.

Highly disappointing is the loss of what could have been a magnificent personal grudge match. Before Strickland was lost for the season, I thought we might see Strickland go up against his girlfriend’s brother, Duke guard Austin Rivers. How awkward would that be? Unfortunately, it will just be Rivers (14.5 points per game) tonight. In addition to their star guard, the Blue Devils boast an unusually balanced attack, with four players shooting over 37 percent from behind the arc, and five players averaging greater than 9.5 points per game on the season. Don’t forget junior guard Seth Curry, who scored 42 points in the first two installments of last year’s Tobacco Road rivalry, including a most impressive 6-for-11 performance from behind the arc in his sole appearance at the Dean E. Smith Center.

Duke has lost two of its last five, including a four-point home loss to Miami, in which Rivers nearly posted a double-double. For a rivalry that has usually featured teams unaccustomed to losing, the air of desperation surrounding this game will be the slightest bit unusual. Usually, this game is for the ACC Championship. Now, this game is, to some extent, for the right to remain in the race. Gentlemen, start your engines. This should be a good one.

Also, not to be forgotten in the Duke-North Carolina mess, Baylor and Kansas do play tonight in a crucial Big XII contest. Most fans will likely forget about that match in the wake of the Tobacco Road rivalry, but in some ways that’s an even better game, matching two top 10 teams with identical conference records. It’s also a fine contest between a perennial powerhouse and the new kids on the block, who would love nothing more than to prove their worth against Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

Statistic of the Game:

3.2: With 3.2 blocks per game, North Carolina F John Henson is averaging nearly as many blocks as the entire Duke team.

What to Watch For:

Duke ranks 104th in the nation with 36 rebounds per game. North Carolina ranks first with 46.3 boards per game. For a Blue Devils team that was out-rebounded by the Hurricanes their last time out, limiting the damage on the glass will be critical.

Question Mark:

Harrison Barnes has drained just 9-of-27 shots in his last two games, and questions remain as to how big a role his injury will play in tonight’s game. On the bright side, Barnes has been able to get to the line these past couple games, which indicates that he is still active in driving to the hoop. He has taken and made the second most free throws of anyone on the team this season, right behind the master of the charity stripe, Tyler Zeller.