North Carolina Prevails, Barely, Over Ohio

North Carolina might be without the finest point guard in the country, Kendall Marshall, but the Tar Heels showed that any team that has two elite big men like Tyler Zeller and John Henson will be difficult to defeat in the month of March. It wasn’t pretty but North Carolina prevailed in overtime, downing Ohio, 73-65. The Tar Heels did this behind 20 points and 23 rebounds from Zeller, and at game’s end, North Carolina coach Roy Williams stated the obvious, when asked about whether Marshall will play in the Elite Eight:

“We’re just happy North Carolina is playing on Sunday.”

The Tar Heels will live to play another day, despite Harrison Barnes’ best efforts to throw the game. Barnes was puzzling all game long, hitting just 3-of-16 from the field, including five turnovers. Handed the ball at the end of regulation, presumably because of his tremendous reputation as a clutch performer as opposed to any good he worked Friday night, he drove to the hoop and turned it over. With a tie game, seconds remaining on the clock, and no shot clock, Barnes did the one thing he wasn’t supposed to do: cough the ball up. Fortunately, for Barnes and the Tar Heels, Bobcats’ sharpshooter D.J. Cooper’s half-court heave rattled around the rim, forcing overtime.

In the extra period, Barnes hit a huge jump shot from the elbow, and earned his way to the free-throw line with a head-fake from the same spot. But the story of the game, and of the extra period, was Reggie Bullock, who set the tone with a three-pointer to kick off overtime. Bullock finished with 17 points, on 6-of-13 shooting and 5-of-10 shooting from behind the arc. His three-pointer toward the end of regulation, which put the Tar Heels up 63-61, was another game-changer, and his 10 rebounds also provided a big boost.

No one would have guessed the drama that would ensue at game’s end from the way this contest started. Entering the first commercial break, it was quite clear that North Carolina was the superior team. The Tar Heels took an 8-4 lead, with all eight of their points coming from inside the paint. With Stilman White leading the show quite capably, including a finely timed pass to Henson as he cut toward the hoop, the Tar Heels appeared to be in good hands. Leading 17-8, White advanced another beautiful bounce pass to Henson as he streaked across the post, after which Henson drew the foul and converted on both free throws. Even on the one play in which things did not go right for White, a play in which he faked a shot, drove aggressively to the basket, only to run into a big man and lose his grip on the ball, he recovered quite gracefully, easily dishing the ball to Zeller for a hook shot. Obviously, much of the concern about White centers on the fact that he is a walk-on, attempting to replace a five-star recruit in Dexter Strickland. But just as pertinent in my mind, he is only 19 years old, a freshman in college, tasked with leading the most hyped team in college basketball. Talk about a task of epic proportions.But he responded with six assists and no turnovers, and more importantly, showed incredible restraint, attempting just four shots all game long. He passed up several open shots, and showed the type of restraint that we would all love for Barnes to possess.

Despite his injured wrist, Henson started the game with two emphatic dunks, the former of which caused a visible grimace to flicker across Henson’s face. Meanwhile, Zeller was effective, blocking two shots and causing enough fear to disrupt Ohio’s entire post game. When Ivo Baltic had a chance down low, just feet away from the basket, he seemed to bail out as soon as he saw Zeller guarding him, feebly attempting a weak hook shot that never came close to falling. Then the jump shots started to fall for North Carolina. Three-pointers by Harrison Barnes, as if people forgot that North Carolina has one of the top NBA prospects in the country, and Reggie Bullock fell right through the cylinder, and Bullock also hit a fine jump shot from well behind the free-throw line.

Meanwhile, Ohio was weak on the offensive end. The Bobcats entered the intermission shooting a measly 23 percent from the field, including a miserable 1-of-13 clip from the four forwards on their roster. Their interior struggles were best symbolized by that early errant play in which the Bobcats couldn’t convert feet from the basket under heavy pressure from Zeller. Indeed, they abdicated the post, an unhappy but necessary concession that was a clear result of the Tar Heels’ size. So, they were forced to rely on a series of jump shots, which mainly found the front rim, not the bottom of the net, and on a series of drives to the post, which ended weakly. These wisps of drives were capped not with authority, but with careful shots, fade-away shots, that were well shielded from the possibility of a block, but often failed to draw even the slightest touch of the rim.

But the Bobcats fought their way back, literally fought their way back, with aggressive turnover-forcing defense. Ohio swatted away at the ball, knocking it loose several times. It got in the way of North Carolina’s passing lanes and forced some turnovers, even resulting in a rare fast-break lay-up for the Bobcats. All in all, the Tar Heels turned it over 13 times in the first half, an unacceptable number as coach Roy Williams pointed out during his halftime interview. In contrast, the Bobcats turned it over just six times in the first half.

Three pointers, of course, are the one way to defeat the Tar Heels’ tough interior defense. The Bobcats drained four in the first half, three of them coming from the fingertips of Nick Kellogg. Not only did a perimeter-based attack help avoid the twin towers of Henson and Zeller, but it also gave Ohio a chance on the boards. Whereas missed two-pointers tend to fall within the grasp of the tree-like limbs of Henson and Zeller, the long rebounds off missed three-pointers tended to fall in Ohio’s favor. Despite the Bobcats’ distinct disadvantage down low, they were able to grab four offensive rebounds in the first half, just one less than the Tar Heels were able to grab. While Ohio made only 4 of its 15 three-point attempts in the first half, when you consider that it snared approximately three of those missed three-pointers, it’s actually a fairly efficient form of offense.

The question left hanging after the first half, and after Friday’s game, was whether Ohio could have pulled off the upset with a in-tune Cooper. Cooper finished with a miserable 3-of-20 clip from the field, including just 1-of-10 from behind the arc. His uncanny swagger, attempting shots from 35 feet out toward game’s end and spotting up from a myriad of unlikely locales all game long, is obviously what makes Cooper so good, but it’s also what lost the game for Ohio on Friday night. His miserable shooting performance compromised an awful lot of possessions for the Bobcats.

At halftime, you got an interesting sense of two different outlooks on a game that teetered toward being a North Carolina blowout before settling into a fairly close game. Williams was understandably irritated about his team’s 13 turnovers, and could only talk about how his team needed to play better, a message he reiterated after the game. Meanwhile, John Groce seemed thrilled with his team at the intermission, and implored his team to fight on, although after the game, he admitted how much a loss like this stung. But it’s a story of two different teams with two different sets of expectations. For North Carolina, given its talent, a small lead over Ohio at halftime was not acceptable. The Tar Heels’ sloppy play was not acceptable. Neither was Barnes’ lackadasical style, and so Williams needed to fire his team up, which I’m sure he did his best to do. Meanwhile, Ohio gave all the fight it could in the first half, and managed to dig its way out of a deep hole. It kept hope alive, a hope that Groce wanted to prevail during his halftime speech. Two different perspectives, both fitting for the situation. Two of the game’s best coaches were right on message.

In the second half, Ohio drew North Carolina’s lead down to four, on an opening three-pointer by Walter Offutt. The Bobcats had a chance to draw the Tar Heels’ lead down further on a beautiful entry pass to Jon Smith, who was wide open behind the North Carolina defense. But Smith was somehow unable to put the ball in, either by lay-up or dunk, rolling the ball off the front rim. His miss, on an indescribably easy shot, might have been the turning point of the game, as North Carolina came back and scored on a short Zeller hook shot. Then, Henson finished a fast-break with a pretty finger roll. That was followed by another pretty fast break, as White was blocked on his initial drive, but Zeller’s diligence and hard work paid off as he picked up the deflection and laid the ball back in. That brought North Carolina’s lead back to 10 points.

But, as the process of evolution dictates, Ohio only came back with greater fervor and skill. The Bobcats hit their first four three-pointers of the half to draw within a point of the Tar Heels. Even with D.J. Cooper still unable to hit from behind the arc, or anywhere, Ohio streaked, led by the play of Offutt. His 26 points, on 10-of-18 shooting, including 6-of-10 from behind the arc, paid enormous dividends for Ohio, and the fact that he fouled out in the closing minutes of overtime may have been the biggest break to fall North Carolina’s way late. It was at that moment that I knew Ohio was not going to rally back one last time.

But transitioning back to the early moments of the second half, the Bobcats showed marked improvement from the first half, doing a far better job of earning their three-point opportunities. Instead of forcing up prayers from downtown, they threatened inside, displaying a menace in the post, before dishing it out to the perimeter. This process resulted in multiple wide-open three-pointers. First, there was an excellent drive toward the basket, in which the Bobcats player worked his way under the hoop, drawing both Henson and Zeller on defense, before kicking it back out to Offutt for an open three-pointer. Then, Ivo Baltic demonstrated why the Tar Heels needed to keep their eyes open down low, finishing with a strong lay-up down low. Ohio continued the fun with a three-pointer from Offutt, off another Baltic assist. The Bobcats’ ability to at least penetrate the post in the second half was a key part of their rally.

North Carolina threatened to pull away, first with a made three-pointer from Bullock, and then with an authoritative dunk from James Michael McAdoo. But just when Ohio fell back into a funk, the Bobcats got the break they had long been looking for. Cooper, at long last, made a three-pointer, and then a sloppy turnover by North Carolina, led to another Ohio possession. The Bobcats were able to capitalize with another open three-pointer, created by a nice baseline drive by Offutt that freed up Kellogg from behind the three-point line. His ensuing shot gave Ohio a 47-46 lead.

But the Tar Heels can shoot too. Bullock drained a three-pointer from the top of the key, and then Henson hit a turnaround. Not to be deterred, the Bobcats got another beautiful play from Cooper, who everyone assumes is going to shoot the ball on every opportunity. Instead, he whipped a pass 30 feet to Reggie Keely, who finished with Ohio’s most authoritative dunk of the evening. That drew the Bobcats within 53-52. And then on a fast-break opportunity created by the Tar Heels’ inability to finish, Cooper took it to the one player on North Carolina that isn’t a blocking threat, White, with no fear, finishing with a lay-up and a chance at the charity stripe.

The funny thing is that while Ohio was most well known for its three-pointers Friday night, North Carolina possesses some of the top three-point shooters in the nation, the kind of guys who won the McDonald’s three-point shooting competition in high school, and the kind of guys who can hit from deep whenever the mood strikes them. Those three-pointers kept the Tar Heels alive, as Barnes and Bullock gave North Carolina the lead back. But then Offutt came back with another incredible drive to the hoop, a fine play in which he switched hands, laid it in, and drew the foul. But with the score tied at 63, and the chance to put the pressure on the Tar Heels with a make, Offutt succumbed to the pressure himself, clanking his attempt from the charity stripe.

As a result of that critical missed free throw by Ohio, North Carolina had the ball at the end of regulation with no pressure. The shot clock was off. The Tar Heels had a chance to win the game. And assuming no sloppy mistakes, a big assumption given North Carolina’s walk-on freshman point guard, the Tar Heels would, at the very least, have five minutes in overtime to try to win the game if their final possession was unsuccessful. But the problem wasn’t their questionable point guard, it was Harrison Barnes. Ice-cold all night long, Barnes tried forcing a score and ended up giving the ball away, providing Cooper with one miraculous chance to win the game. He nearly did, firing a little too long and a little too far to the right, coming inches away from a game-winner. Instead, it was a Butler-like near-miss.

And then came overtime. Ohio, which relied on three-point shooting all night long, scoring 36 of its 65 points from behind the arc, scored just two points in the extra period. North Carolina did just enough to win, and as Williams said at game’s end, just winning is more than enough for this particular evening. They’ll have plenty of time to work out the kinks, as they await the winner of the Kansas/North Carolina State game in the Elite Eight.

Northwestern, North Carolina and the Beginnings of March Madness

After all of the bad breaks Northwestern has received over the years, it was nice to see the Wildcats catch a break or two against the Hawkeyes at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Just thinking back on those final couple of minutes, Northwestern didn’t exactly look confident in closing out the game Saturday, but somehow it got the job done. Two free throws by Alex Marcotullio, who I wanted shooting the free throws since he has ice water in his veins, barely rattled in. Meanwhile, Iowa missed a solid shot at a three-pointer in the closing seconds that would have won it. Now, everyone keeps saying that the Hawkeyes missed a wide-open three-pointer. I’m less convinced of that. The Wildcats did a nice job of closing out, and blocking the sight line of the Hawkeyes’ shooter, but no doubt about it, it was a great opportunity for Iowa, and a shot that has seemed to fall every other time in Northwestern history, finally hit rim, and so the Wildcats caught a break. So, Northwestern won the game and now remains firmly enmeshed in the bubble conversation. Just to hear our university talked about it in that way carries its own kind of thrill, and for once, having more than a dream to play for in Indianapolis is refreshing. And if we do ultimately land in the NIT, three home games likely await us. But since Marcotullio’s shots did ultimately roll into the basket, let’s dare to dream for a while, and enjoy a few more weeks of March Madness. Let’s bask in the feeling of Madness in Evanston. God knows when we will get this feeling again.

I was impressed with the fury with which the Wildcats played on Saturday. Their defense was awfully stingy, forcing 18 turnovers, and those turnovers allowed them to overcome an enormous early deficit. On the offensive end, however, it seemed as if Northwestern was almost playing with too much energy early on, as the Wildcats were doing a beautiful job of driving to the hoop, only to mangle passes and overpower easy shots. It was as if the blood was pumping a little too rapidly. But give them credit. After falling behind by 15, they didn’t just stem the tide, they turned the tide around completely. Facing a fired-up Carver-Hawkeye Arena, the Wildcats went on a 27-5 run to end the half, relying on their defensive ferocity and ability to run the court to generate quick points.

Giving Gatens Due Credit

Give a lot of credit to Matt Gatens, who went 6-for-12 on his Senior Night, going 38 minutes without a single turnover. He has only turned it over three times or more four times this season, and has always been a solid player, if not a great one. And when he hit that three from several feet behind the arc on Saturday, to draw Iowa within a basket or two, I seriously thought Northwestern might be screwed. Gatens was a scary player in his day, and he’ll need to be scary in the Big Ten Tournament to give Iowa a shot at the NIT. Currently, Iowa is said to be on the NIT bubble, but is not projected to make it in. Why Minnesota is projected to get into the NIT over Iowa remains unclear to me, especially when the Hawkeyes posted a far better record in Big Ten play.

Wildcats’ Season In Review

At 8-10 in conference, the Wildcats were actually right where I was hoping they would end up at the beginning of the season. Well, OK, so maybe I had slightly more ambitious dreams, but they definitely did some things right this season. In past years, Northwestern has struggled to win the easy games, and this year, they took care of business with a ruthless nature at times. They won the Charleston Classic, kicked Minnesota, Nebraska and Iowa off the court at Welsh-Ryan Arena, and showed that not every Wildcats game needs to come down to the final buzzer. But they lost zillions of close games, and with Shurna missing that final free-throw against Iowa, and a shaky performance toward the end at Penn State, the Wildcats still lack clutch credentials. For that matter, they still somewhat lack credentials for the NCAA Tournament. On the face of it, they deserve to make the tournament. I think there’s little doubt that Northwestern is one of the top 68 teams in the nation, but that’s not how the tournament works, and the fact is that Northwestern was unable to capitalize on any of its million chances to pick up a third signature victory. Beating Michigan State was impressive. Beating Illinois on the road, at a place Northwestern rarely wins, was impressive. Coming back from a sharp deficit at Carver-Hawkeye Arena was impressive. As was winning the Charleston Classic. But will voters still be smarting over the bad taste of a season gone wrong, of opportunities spoiled and chances given away? Or will they recognize that Northwestern was close in every single one of its losses toward the end of the season, was rarely outclassed and almost always makes for good television? There’s two different ways to approach the issue, and how one chooses to interpret Northwestern’s many close losses will go a long way in deciding whether it makes the tournament or not.

Bubble Boys Take to Indianapolis

I’m definitely pleased with Northwestern’s draw in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wildcats get to take on a Golden Gophers team that they looked dominant against the last time they met up in Evanston, and the last time they met up in Indianapolis. Thankfully, their Big Ten Tournament meeting will take place far away from the Barn, where Minnesota has pummeled Northwestern year after year. The Golden Gophers have lots of talented role players, and a should-be star in Rodney Williams, but they have no one that can take over a game the way Brandon Paul and Meyers Leonard can. Ralph Sampson III is fairly flimsy inside, which works well with Northwestern’s interior players, who are all extremely flimsy. I could actually see Shurna, who has a surprising number of blocks in the post, match up effectively against Sampson III, tormenting him with his speed, creativity and power. The only issue is that Sampson III, like Leonard, does block a lot of shots, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him swat away several of Dave Sobolewski’s drives to the net, which would be unfortunate since driving to the hoop is a key part of Northwestern’s game.

If they beat the Golden Gophers, they would move on to face a Wolverines team that they have played close twice before, a Michigan team that lacks a dominant inside force. What scares me most about a potential match with Michigan is that the Wolverines chuck up far more three-pointers than any other team in the Big Ten, and the Wildcats have a fascinating inability to contest top three-point shooters. Northwestern may want to consider abandoning the 1-3-1 zone during parts of a potential match against Michigan. If this game is to reach overtime, like their previous two games against Michigan, then the Wildcats will be boosted by the presence of JerShon Cobb, who has been a critical cog in recent weeks. His defensive energy has been most impressive, as has his ability to rebound the ball, and he is slowly emerging as a scorer as well. He went 6-for-11 against Iowa with three assists, and many of his mid-range jumpers and floaters came in the midst of Northwestern’s season-defining rally at Iowa City. As one of the few Wildcats who can create his own shots, shoot deep, or drive aggressively, Cobb could be invaluable, and his three-point form has slowly come back to respectability. I was very happy to see his picture as one of the leading pictures on the Wildcats’ website. While he might not score like Shurna and Crawford, he deserves a lot of the credit for the way that they have been playing lately.

To address some of the furor surrounding Northwestern, many appear irate at the thought of a team that finished with a sub-.500 record in conference play making the NCAA Tournament. That’s a legitimate opinion. But don’t forget that Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois and Penn State all made it with 9-9 Big Ten records last season, and similar overall records, and furthermore, they all earned fairly high seeds. Michigan was a No. 8 seed, Illinois was a No. 9 seed, and Michigan State and Penn State were both No. 10 seeds. So it’s not that ridiculous to think that Northwestern, with a conference record of just one game below .500, might earn a No. 16 seed, or at least a chance to play-in to the tournament. Add in their really strong performance in non-conference play, and the fact that they essentially have no bad losses, and you have a case for the NCAA Tournament. That being said, I do agree that the Wildcats need a win in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament to really give themselves a chance on Selection Sunday.

Notes About Purdue-Indiana

I can’t help but make a quick comment about Tom Pritchard. He is adorable if not all that talented. He’s the classic Big Ten athlete that you have to respect just because he goes out and competes the right way. In the several minutes I watched, he made two great plays, diving on the floor for a loose ball and hitting a hook shot. Both were nice hustle plays. On the hook shot, it was a clumsy play. He probably should have had the dunk off of a beautiful entry pass, but by the time he collected himself, two defenders were in his face, so he had to work hard, shuffle his feet, and use a crafty little hook to pick up the bucket. His limited athleticism also showed when he missed a dunk and ran straight into a pick within seconds of each other. But again, you have to give him credit for his effort.

Also, let’s give some credit to the fan at Assembly Hall who held a sign with an arrow pointing up to the rafters. It read: “Purdue, here are what banners look like.” Or something like that. Anyway, it was brilliant Hoosier State trash talk, and essentially the ultimate version of the “scoreboard” taunt, except that, instead of referring to a single game, it’s referring to an entire program’s history. Also, a lot of credit to the way this rivalry has run, as we saw both Pritchard and D.J. Byrd of Purdue hit the deck for loose balls. The effort is great, even if Indiana was decidedly in control this season. Purdue did make a late run. After falling behind by 13, the Boilermakers hit a couple of mid-range jumpers and floaters, forced an inbound steal, and a Byrd three-pointer cut the Hoosiers’ lead to six with more than a minute remaining. Unfortunately, Hummel, apparently unaware that he had four personal fouls, picked up his fifth, and from that point on, it was pretty clear who would win the game.

Notes About North Carolina-Duke

The latest installment in the Tobacco Road rivalry was a little bit of a dud, with North Carolina finally showcasing its superior talent. In particular, John Henson was that superior talent, hitting mid-range jumpers with astonishing frequency to complement what is already a potent post game. Tyler Zeller continued an incredible run, with his 9-of-11 performance, finishing with 19 points and 10 rebounds. His ability to tip shots in and finish off entry passes has always been impressive. And of course no one dishes it like Kendall Marshall, who had 10 of his team’s 13 assists. I was impressed with Mason Plumlee. He had 17 points on 7-of-13 shooting in the losing effort, and his assortment of power moves, gritty play and hook shots were something to behold.

But the fact is that North Carolina will always be a better post team, out-rebounding Duke 42-22 on Saturday night, and when the threes aren’t falling for the Blue Devils (6-of-21 on Saturday), they stand little chance of winning. That’s why I can’t take Duke seriously as a title contender. The Blue Devils will always be a top notch team, but can they remain hot for an entire NCAA Tournament run? I will say Duke can start its resurgence with a more aggressive Austin Rivers. Approximately half of his shots were from three-point range, but he is such a good driver, and that could add to his game tremendously. Two interesting notes: North Carolina had only one block and Duke turned it over just six times (with four of those turnovers coming from Rivers). The Tar Heels’ tendency to take off large swaths of time, with hasty threes and turnovers, nearly came back to bite them against the Blue Devils, and could haunt them again in the future.

One more cool note concerning North Carolina. Upon checking the brackets, it appears that the Tar Heels could be in for a meeting with the Hoosiers somewhere down the line, which would mean an intriguing contest of older brother versus younger brother. This would be the one time they ever got the chance to face off, with Tyler Zeller about to depart Chapel Hill, and it would be a rare chance to see brothers go up one-on-one, even if North Carolina would win the overall match handily.

Coming Up Next: Either Tuesday or Wednesday, I will preview the entire Big Ten Tournament for you. Do not miss it. It should be a whole lot of fun.

Living on a Prayer in Chapel Hill

The question that still lingers in my mind hours after the conclusion of Wednesday’s contest between North Carolina and Duke is would that shot have gone in? If you watched the game, you know what shot I’m talking about. With 14 seconds remaining, Duke forward Ryan Kelly hoisted up a shot from behind the three-point line that appeared to be well off track, and North Carolina center Tyler Zeller, who later told the press that he was going for the rebound, tipped it in. After a brief discussion amongst the referees, it was decided that the shot was no longer worth three points, but two points since Zeller had tipped it in. In my opinion, once Zeller touched that ball, it would have been two points regardless of whether the ball went in or not. The ball was on its way down, its destiny not yet clear, when Zeller deflected it. It was goaltending without a doubt, and a surprisingly stupid play from the usually heady senior. Zeller simply jumped early. Also, why he wouldn’t just grab the ball, rather than tip it, remains unclear to me. By tipping it, Zeller was taking a risk. Clearly, he never expected the ball to deflect backwards into the basket, but it could have deflected into a Duke player’s hands. Why not catch it? How ironic that the fall of mighty North Carolina came on the boards, where the Tar Heels have been so dominant all season.

Alas, at the end of the game, North Carolina’s rebounding skills faded away. The Tar Heels out-rebounded the Blue Devils by seven in the first half, as expected, and it went beyond the stats sheet, North Carolina was absolutely dominant on the boards, wreaking havoc at every possible opportunity. It didn’t really matter if the Duke player had prime position under the hoop, Tyler Zeller and John Henson were always able to reach higher. But in the second half, Duke and North Carolina were literally even on the boards, and the Blue Devils snared eight offensive rebounds to the Tar Heels’ five. Rebounding was North Carolina’s biggest advantage entering Thursday’s contest, and once that faded away, Duke had free rein. The Blue Devils’ timely rebounding continued into the final minutes, most notably when Ryan Kelly missed a three-pointer from the corner pocket, hustled to the loose ball, picked up the long rebound and hoisted up another jump shot, this time from within the arc. It was a perfect play from Kelly, as he impressively hesitated for just a second with the ball, waited for the perfect moment when the two Tar Heels defenders had their hands down, and took the baseline jumper. That cut North Carolina’s advantage to two.

Then, Tyler Zeller pulled a John Shurna and missed one of two shots at the free-throw line. The usually rock solid free-throw shooter suffered uncharacteristic difficulties at the charity stripe Wednesday, including a missed pair of free throws at one point. It was highly unlike him, and even though he ended the day with a fairly impressive 7-of-11 clip from the charity stripe, it wasn’t a Zeller-like performance. Elite free-throw shooters occasionally miss shots from the charity stripe, but they usually don’t miss a pair of attempts. In fact, when a good shooter misses the first free throw, I usually have more confidence that he’ll sink the second, since his full focus is on the task at hand, and since I expect him to figure out what went awry on the first one and make the necessary adjustments. When Zeller missed a pair, an alarm bell went off in my head. It was too bad, to see Zeller suffer that way in the final few minutes, since he had put up such a good game previously, posting a double-double with 23 points and 11 rebounds. Zeller had been the only thing keeping North Carolina alive in the first half, stunning Duke with a bevy of jump shots, dunks and offensive rebounds. Yet, in the end, it was Zeller that cost the Tar Heels the game.

While the dark cloud of tragedy prevails over Franklin Street now, North Carolina fans shouldn’t fret. Yes, it has been a frustrating season so far, with losses to UNLV, Florida State and Duke that no one saw coming, but the Tar Heels are still an elite team. In fact, they’re far better than the Blue Devils. They are the best team in the ACC. They can drive to the hoop like it’s nobody’s business. When North Carolina was able to turn the game into a track meet, running up and down the court, the Tar Heels were absolutely dominant, and they certainly finish fast-breaks beautifully around the basket. It’s funny, the difference between the two teams was illustrated quite clearly on one Duke fast-break, when the Blue Devils sprinted down court with a two-on-one, but rather than drive to the hoop, the player without the ball sprinted to the wing, and the ball-handler dished it to him for a quick attempt from behind the arc. North Carolina would have driven the ball. Duke preferred to shoot the three. It really was fascinating to see two starkly different philosophies in conflict Wednesday. Rarely do you see two teams that play the game so differently. Duke prefers to pass it around the perimeter, and take deep shots. North Carolina wants to dump the ball into the paint and work from there. Either that or run the court.

Anyway, back to my point, North Carolina has the better team. Tyler Zeller and John Henson are absolutely dominant down low, although I thought Henson was a little too quiet on both ends of the court Wednesday. He didn’t seem quite as intimidating as usual with his defensive presence. But the Tar Heels out-scored the Blue Devils 42-14 in the paint. That is a recipe for success. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils didn’t play sustainable basketball. They were outstanding from behind the arc Wednesday, scoring 51 of their 85 points from three-point land, but many of those shots were tough shots, taken from well behind the arc, or with the shooter’s momentum taking him away from the basket. They went in Wednesday night, but will they go in their next time out? Wednesday night was their night. I wouldn’t expect it to happen again, however. I think if these two teams met 10 times, North Carolina would win nine times. This was Duke’s night. And what a special night it was.

Austin Rivers was unbelievable all game, but that final shot simply made me chuckle. I was rooting for North Carolina, but even I had to admit that was a pretty cool way to end the game. The entire time I was thinking what is this chuckle-head doing, dribbling out the clock, without ever trying to penetrate past the arc. With Duke trailing by only two, he could have pushed the ball inside. Seconds were ticking off the clock and he kept dribbling. Dribbling nowhere. His defender, Zeller, must have also been wondering why Rivers was willing to settle for such a bad shot, but after an eternity, he caught Zeller unaware, and hoisted up a three-pointer as the buzzer went off. It was a beautiful shot, falling right through the laces of the net, and just like that, bedlam ensued in Chapel Hill. ESPN flashed to a picture of a stunned student section, so ready to celebrate minutes earlier, now wondering if they had somehow fallen into Hell during halftime. I was stunned myself, but more over why they had Zeller on Rivers, and why for that matter, Rivers didn’t try driving on his presumably slower defender. No matter, it capped an unbelievable 29-point, five-rebound performance from Rivers, in which he made 6-of-10 from behind the arc. Combine Rivers and Seth Curry, and they made 10-of-18 from three-point land. That’s insane, particularly when most of the shots were self-created and weren’t exactly easy. Yes, North Carolina’s perimeter defense lacked luster, but they still had guys out there, Duke was still forced to take wild three pointers and the Blue Devils made every single one of them. Why the Tar Heels didn’t continue pushing them back, farther and farther, until they reached the half-court line remains unclear to me. Your defenders are already out there, why not push them a little farther. Make Duke beat you with the backdoor.

Also, let’s note that Harrison Barnes is fine. After all the talk about his health status, he scored 25 points, earned 12 shots from the charity stripe and sped his way down court on multiple fast-breaks. He looked absolutely great all game. Mobility was never an issue for him. This perfect team has just two problems that could keep it from the ultimate goal. One is obvious, their lack of depth, and that is something that they can’t really do anything about. It’s not their fault that Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland are both out for the season with injuries. But the other issue, which they can do something about, is situational basketball. Up 10 points at home, there’s no way North Carolina should have lost this game. But the Tar Heels turned the ball over, made defensive mistakes, surrendered offensive rebounds, and somehow failed to attempt a single field goal in the final minutes. The Tar Heels need to learn how to keep their feet on the gas pedal for all 40 minutes. They need to practice getting around screens, keeping their hands up and defending the three. The talent is there. Now, Roy Williams just needs to develop it. He has time. Thankfully for North Carolina, March is a month away.

Same Tobacco Road, New Circumstances

Did you know that the entire college basketball world doesn’t revolve around the Northwestern Wildcats? Shocking, I know. Particularly given the way I cover college basketball on this blog. But if there’s one thing I enjoy nearly as much as Northwestern basketball, it’s North Carolina basketball, and the Tar Heels have a doozy tonight, with a home match against the Blue Devils.

It’s funny because they had Dick Vitale on some radio show that I was listening to yesterday afternoon, and they asked him about tonight’s North Carolina-Duke contest, and he said that as exciting as that game was, watch out for Florida-Kentucky Tuesday night. Well, that one was a dud. Thank you very much, Dickie V for the recommendation. I turned on the television last night and the Wildcats were up by 20. Sure enough, Kentucky held on to defeat Florida 78-58. But hopefully, Dickie V’s projections will be more accurate when it comes to tonight’s contest.

The Tar Heels would have been a huge favorite earlier this season, but losses to Florida State, UNLV and Kentucky ended all talk of a perfect campaign, and now injuries to Harrison Barnes and Dexter Strickland have put their ability to win tonight’s game in question. Thankfully, they still have John Henson, who I believe is the best center in the country, and someone Duke simply cannot match up with, with their cadre of light and fluffy, sweet-shooting interior players. Henson is averaging a double-double this season, as well as 3.2 blocks a game, and the kid posted a double-double all three times North Carolina played Duke last season, including an 18-rebound performance in their ACC Tournament meeting. That being said, Henson also went 8-for-25 against the Blue Devils in their last two contests, uncharacteristic for a guy who usually makes more shots than he misses. Still, Henson is a beast, and the Sultan of Swat should reign tonight.

North Carolina didn’t look great against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Maryland, however, and the Tar Heels’ halftime deficit against the Terrapins was troubling. This is a team that isn’t necessarily playing its best basketball of the season, which gives Duke a solid shot at stealing this one on the road. To do so, the Blue Devils will have to contain Tyler Zeller, who had 22 points against Maryland. Zeller isn’t the most impressive post player on his own, but when combined with Henson, the two form an overwhelming pair.

Highly disappointing is the loss of what could have been a magnificent personal grudge match. Before Strickland was lost for the season, I thought we might see Strickland go up against his girlfriend’s brother, Duke guard Austin Rivers. How awkward would that be? Unfortunately, it will just be Rivers (14.5 points per game) tonight. In addition to their star guard, the Blue Devils boast an unusually balanced attack, with four players shooting over 37 percent from behind the arc, and five players averaging greater than 9.5 points per game on the season. Don’t forget junior guard Seth Curry, who scored 42 points in the first two installments of last year’s Tobacco Road rivalry, including a most impressive 6-for-11 performance from behind the arc in his sole appearance at the Dean E. Smith Center.

Duke has lost two of its last five, including a four-point home loss to Miami, in which Rivers nearly posted a double-double. For a rivalry that has usually featured teams unaccustomed to losing, the air of desperation surrounding this game will be the slightest bit unusual. Usually, this game is for the ACC Championship. Now, this game is, to some extent, for the right to remain in the race. Gentlemen, start your engines. This should be a good one.

Also, not to be forgotten in the Duke-North Carolina mess, Baylor and Kansas do play tonight in a crucial Big XII contest. Most fans will likely forget about that match in the wake of the Tobacco Road rivalry, but in some ways that’s an even better game, matching two top 10 teams with identical conference records. It’s also a fine contest between a perennial powerhouse and the new kids on the block, who would love nothing more than to prove their worth against Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

Statistic of the Game:

3.2: With 3.2 blocks per game, North Carolina F John Henson is averaging nearly as many blocks as the entire Duke team.

What to Watch For:

Duke ranks 104th in the nation with 36 rebounds per game. North Carolina ranks first with 46.3 boards per game. For a Blue Devils team that was out-rebounded by the Hurricanes their last time out, limiting the damage on the glass will be critical.

Question Mark:

Harrison Barnes has drained just 9-of-27 shots in his last two games, and questions remain as to how big a role his injury will play in tonight’s game. On the bright side, Barnes has been able to get to the line these past couple games, which indicates that he is still active in driving to the hoop. He has taken and made the second most free throws of anyone on the team this season, right behind the master of the charity stripe, Tyler Zeller.